Bitcoin reached 76,000 dollars on March 17, marking its highest level since early February, as institutional investors continued to channel funds into United States spot exchange traded funds. This extended a recovery phase that followed significant outflows recorded in February.
Despite the renewed demand, analyst Axel Adler Jr. noted a major limitation, pointing out that ETF investors are still carrying an average unrealized loss of about 5,174 dollars. He warned that this could influence price movement as Bitcoin approaches the 80,000 dollar level.
ETF Inflows Improve but Resistance Near 79,962 Dollars Remains Key
In his latest market update, Adler explained that Bitcoin ETF flows have completed what he described as a full cycle over the past month, shifting from heavy selling in mid February to a steady recovery in recent weeks. Between February 15 and 24, the seven day average of net ETF flows remained negative, reaching a low of approximately minus 1,883 Bitcoin per day on February 18.
Around February 25, the trend reversed, with flows turning positive and peaking at about 3,387 Bitcoin per day on March 2. Currently, the seven day average stands near 1,472 Bitcoin per day, while overall liquidity conditions have improved. During this period, total ETF holdings increased by roughly 26,600 Bitcoin, representing a little more than 2 percent growth.
Adler interprets this shift as a return of institutional demand following earlier withdrawals. However, he emphasized that this demand is still below a significant resistance level.
That resistance corresponds to the realized price of ETF investors, which he estimated at 79,962 dollars. This figure reflects the average purchase cost across all ETF participants. With Bitcoin trading slightly above 74,000 dollars after recently hitting a six week high, investors as a group remain at a paper loss of more than 5,000 dollars.
Adler described this gap as a critical structural factor in the current market. As Bitcoin approaches the realized price, more investors move closer to breaking even, increasing the likelihood of selling activity. As a result, he identified the 80,000 dollar range as a zone where upward momentum could slow unless demand is strong enough to absorb additional supply.
Market Faces Crucial Test at 80,000 Dollars
At the time of writing, data from CoinGecko showed Bitcoin gaining more than 5 percent over the past seven days, with similar growth over the last thirty days. The increase reached nearly 9 percent over a two week period. However, performance remains weaker on a yearly basis, with the asset down nearly 11 percent and still more than 41 percent below its all time high.
For now, Adler views the 80,000 dollar level as a decisive point for the market. He stated that a sustained move above 79,962 dollars, combined with consistent ETF inflows exceeding 2,000 Bitcoin per day, would indicate a meaningful shift in market conditions.#crypto#cryptonews https://coinsignals.net https://t.me/coinsignalpublic
