Bitcoin’s subdued reaction to easing tensions in the Middle East stands in sharp contrast to the rapid recovery seen in the stock market.
The S&P 500 closed at a new all time high of 7,022 on April 15, fully rebounding from losses tied to the conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran within just a few weeks. In comparison, Bitcoin has shown limited movement, with on chain analyst Darkfost noting that the divergence between the two assets has reached its longest stretch of weak correlation since 2020.
Stocks Surge While Bitcoin Trails Far Below Its Peak
According to Darkfost, the S&P 500’s latest rally came as tensions between the US and Iran began to ease, with markets already anticipating a resolution following a wave of diplomatic efforts. Additional support came from March core PPI data, which came in at 0.1 percent, significantly lower than February’s 0.3 percent and below expectations, suggesting that the US economy remains largely shielded from inflation driven by energy costs.
In contrast, Bitcoin has not experienced the same boost. The asset is currently trading near 75,000 dollars, which is about 40 percent below its all time high of more than 126,000 dollars reached in October 2025. This gap has remained in place for several months.
Darkfost explained that this prolonged period of weak correlation, or even decoupling, from traditional indices is the longest observed since 2020. While Bitcoin often moves in line with major indices such as the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite, it can still follow its own internal market dynamics, leading to periods of divergence.
The S&P 500 has risen in 10 of the last 11 trading sessions, gaining more than 10 percent during that time. The pace of this recovery has been unusually fast. Data from Quantifiable Edges highlighted that the index moved from a 100 day low to a 200 day closing high in just 11 days, a feat never previously recorded, with the closest comparison being 12 days in October 2014.
Despite Bitcoin’s slower performance, Tom Lee of Fundstrat stated during an appearance on CNBC that he expects cryptocurrencies to lead the next phase of the market rally alongside major technology stocks. He pointed out that many investors remain on the sidelines, which could create further upside potential rather than limiting gains.
Bitcoin Approaches Key Technical Turning Point
Bitcoin’s current price action adds another dimension to the divergence. Analyst Ali Martinez noted that the asset is once again testing its 100 day simple moving average as resistance for the third time in six months.
The first test in October last year resulted in a 30 percent rejection, with the price falling from around 116,000 dollars to 80,000 dollars. The second attempt in January led to a 39 percent decline, pushing Bitcoin from about 97,000 dollars down to roughly 60,000 dollars.
A third rejection at this level could signal a major structural breakdown, potentially forming a triple top pattern and sending Bitcoin back toward its yearly low near 60,000 dollars. However, a successful breakout above the 100 day moving average could pave the way for a move toward the 80,000 to 84,000 dollar range.#crypto#cryptonewshttps://coinsignals.nethttps://t.me/coinsignalpublic
