Bitcoin faces potential volatility on January 28, 2026, as the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and U.S. crude oil inventory data converge. Both events could influence inflation and liquidity expectations, impacting risk assets including Bitcoin.
On-chain analyst GugaOnChain called the day a “super Wednesday,” noting that Bitcoin is sensitive to energy shocks and monetary policy shifts. West Texas Intermediate crude futures for March were around $61 per barrel, down 0.7%, while open interest dropped by over 21,000 contracts, suggesting traders are reducing exposure ahead of key data.
Bitcoin showed a slight negative correlation with oil over the past week, rising just over 5% while crude remained flat. According to the analyst, energy markets serve as a barometer for inflation expectations, which in turn affect liquidity and crypto prices.
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin traded in a narrow range between $87,000 and $89,000, up 0.6% in 24 hours but down about 3.6% for the week. Year-over-year, BTC is roughly 12% lower and nearly 30% below its October all-time high above $126,000.
Institutional flows remain uneven, with $405 million exiting Bitcoin investment products in one week as expectations for near-term Fed cuts faded. Analysts note that both crypto and traditional markets are in “wait-and-see” mode, absorbing policy signals rather than chasing short-term gains.
