Bitcoin could climb above $90,000 and eventually return to its all time high near $126,000, according to Arthur Hayes.
The former BitMEX chief believes aggressive government and banking sector spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure, military expansion, and energy security projects is helping fuel the ongoing crypto bull market.
Although Bitcoin currently trades roughly 36 percent below its October 2025 peak, Hayes argues that a return to that level is virtually inevitable.
Hayes Connects Bitcoin Rally to AI Competition and Global Liquidity Expansion
At the center of Hayes’s outlook is the belief that both the United States and China now have strong political justification to expand money creation aggressively, a trend he expects to benefit Bitcoin more than most traditional assets.
According to Hayes, the growing artificial intelligence race between Washington and Beijing has transformed machine intelligence into a matter of national survival rather than simple technological competition.
He argued that both US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping view technological dominance as critical to maintaining global influence and economic power.
Hayes also suggested that technology companies in both countries have amplified fears surrounding AI competition, convincing governments that falling behind could create severe national security and economic consequences.
As a result, he believes central banks will face little political room to resist inflationary lending policies, allowing both the US dollar and Chinese yuan to continue flowing into AI development regardless of inflationary side effects.
Military Spending and Commodity Tensions Could Add More Fuel
Hayes also pointed to rising geopolitical tensions, particularly the US conflict with Iran, as another major factor supporting the current bull market.
He claimed the latest phase of the rally effectively began on February 28, when the conflict intensified and exposed what he sees as a growing shift in global economic relationships.
According to Hayes, many countries are becoming increasingly unwilling to recycle trade surpluses into US Treasuries and stock market investments, especially when geopolitical conflicts threaten global commodity supply chains.
Instead, he expects sovereign nations to redirect capital toward infrastructure projects, defense spending, energy pipelines, and strategic commodity reserves.
Hayes believes this transition could eventually pressure US financial markets, forcing the Federal Reserve and Treasury Department to maintain looser monetary conditions through measures such as expanded dollar swap lines and relaxed banking regulations.
In his view, every additional wave of dollar liquidity ultimately strengthens Bitcoin’s long term price outlook.
Bitcoin Recovery Seen as a Matter of Time
Hayes stated that Bitcoin reclaiming its previous all time high is not a question of possibility but timing.
He also predicted that momentum could accelerate rapidly once Bitcoin surpasses the $90,000 level, as traders holding covered call positions may be forced to buy back exposure while prices move beyond key strike levels, potentially creating a powerful short squeeze effect.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading below $81,000. Despite gaining nearly 13 percent over the past month, the cryptocurrency still remains significantly below its record high.
Investor sentiment toward Bitcoin has nevertheless continued improving. According to CoinShares, digital asset investment products recorded $857.9 million in inflows last week, marking the sixth consecutive week of positive flows.
Bitcoin alone accounted for approximately $706 million in inflows, bringing its year to date total to roughly $4.9 billion.#crypto#cryptonews https://coinsignals.net https://t.me/coinsignalpublic
