Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin earned roughly $70,000 last year on Polymarket with a $440,000 stake by employing an “anti-insanity mode” strategy. He focuses on markets driven by hype or extreme irrationality, betting against unlikely outcomes.
Buterin highlighted politics and technology as his main targets, citing examples like bets on Donald Trump winning a Nobel Peace Prize or the US dollar collapsing to zero within a year. He explained that markets dominated by extreme predictions often present the clearest opportunities for disciplined traders taking the opposite position.
This is not his first success with prediction markets; he made about $58,000 from US election bets in 2020, praising such platforms as tools for collective truth-seeking and open participation.
Polymarket remains active but faces competition. As of December 2025, it held 41% of open interest behind Kalshi’s 42%, with sports, politics, and crypto each exceeding $1.2 billion in trading volume. Culture saw the fastest growth, up 687% in six months, though most trading is concentrated among a small number of wallets.
