CoinGecko data showed that Bitcoin performed better on US holidays in 11 out of the 14 calendar years included in the historical analysis.
A new study from CoinGecko found that buying Bitcoin during US holidays has historically produced significantly stronger short term returns compared to regular trading days.
The research examined Bitcoin’s forward returns across different calendar days between May 1, 2013, and May 8, 2026, with a focus on single day gains after purchase.
Bitcoin’s Strongest Next Day Rallies
According to the findings, US holidays delivered an average next day Bitcoin return of 0.77%, compared to only 0.19% on non holiday trading days. CoinGecko reported that holidays outperformed regular days in 11 of the 14 calendar years covered in the study.
Among standard weekdays, Mondays and Wednesdays recorded the highest average next day returns at 0.38%, while Thursdays were the only weekday to post a negative average return of 0.09%.
The report identified New Year’s Day as the strongest holiday for Bitcoin purchases, generating an average next day return of 2.01% across 13 observations and an 84.6% win rate. This means Bitcoin gained value the following day in 11 out of 13 years.
Columbus Day recorded the same 84.6% win rate with an average return of 1.70%, while Christmas produced a 1.46% average next day gain alongside a 53.8% win rate.
CoinGecko said the New Year’s Day trend could reflect the broader January momentum effect commonly seen in traditional financial markets, where investors allocate fresh capital at the beginning of a new year. The study also noted that Bitcoin may benefit from a transition away from December tax loss selling toward renewed January positioning.
The report highlighted that Bitcoin’s price on January 1 ranged from $313 in 2015 to $93,507 in 2025, yet the pattern of next day gains remained relatively consistent throughout the years analyzed.
However, not every holiday delivered positive results.
Martin Luther King Jr. Day posted the weakest performance with an average next day decline of 0.84%. The result was heavily influenced by Bitcoin’s 18.65% drop after January 15, 2018, during the early stage of the crypto bear market.
Independence Day also recorded a negative average return of 0.26%.
Veterans Day showed an average gain of 1.75%, although CoinGecko cautioned that the figure was skewed by a few unusually large rallies, while the holiday’s win rate remained below 50%.
The study also found little meaningful difference between Bitcoin’s performance on weekdays and weekends. Weekdays averaged a 0.21% positive next day return, compared to 0.22% on weekends. CoinGecko described the gap as statistically insignificant because Bitcoin trades continuously around the clock.
Over a one year holding period, the purchase day had almost no effect on long term returns, with average annual gains across all weekdays remaining within a narrow 2.4 percentage point range.
CoinGecko added that while holiday purchases showed slightly stronger one year returns, the trend likely reflected broader market cycles rather than a sustained holiday driven effect.
Multiple Pressures Weigh on Bitcoin
Bitcoin is currently trading back above $80,000 after briefly falling below that level earlier this week.
Market analysts said the decline was triggered by several pressures hitting the market simultaneously. On chain data revealed that Bitcoin exchange outflows dropped sharply before the selloff, leaving more coins on trading platforms and increasing available sell side supply.
At the same time, derivatives traders aggressively increased short positions while leveraged long exposure remained elevated. As prices started falling, a wave of long liquidations intensified the downward move.
Rising inflation concerns following fresh US CPI and PPI data, combined with heavy whale selling activity, added further pressure to the market.#crypto#cryptonews https://coinsignals.net https://t.me/coinsignalpublic
