Despite Bitcoin’s recent pullback, one market analyst believes the worst may not be over and cautions investors against turning bullish too soon.
Over the past week, Bitcoin has remained under selling pressure, dropping from around $77,000 to roughly $73,140. The leading cryptocurrency experienced several sharp declines during that period, including a notable fall toward $72,600 on May 28.
According to analyst Doctor Profit, the recent weakness suggests the bear market is still unfolding and could eventually lead to a much larger correction before a meaningful recovery takes shape.
Bitcoin Approaching the Final Phase of the Bear Market
In his latest market outlook, Doctor Profit argued that Bitcoin continues to move through the later stages of a bear cycle. He described the current environment as one marked by investor fatigue, range bound price action, and increasing frustration among traders.
The analyst believes these characteristics indicate that the market is nearing what he calls Stage 5, the capitulation phase where fear reaches its peak and many investors finally give up.
According to his outlook, Stage 5 could begin if Bitcoin falls below the $60,000 level. Such a breakdown, he argues, may spark widespread panic and intensify selling pressure across the market.
He also warned that the next phase of the downturn could be accompanied by major disruptive events, including forced liquidations by long term holders, the failure of a major exchange or market participant, or other unexpected shocks that further damage investor confidence.
Doctor Profit emphasized that bear markets rarely move in a straight line. Instead, they tend to be prolonged, emotionally draining, and highly destructive, which is why he believes many investors are still underestimating the potential downside.
Targeting a Bottom Between $40,000 and $50,000
Although Bitcoin has already fallen significantly from its highs, the analyst does not think the market has established a final bottom.
He maintains that Bitcoin could eventually decline into the $40,000 to $50,000 range before the bear market comes to an end. Based on his projections, he expects the cycle low to emerge sometime between September and October 2026.
The analyst also highlighted several upcoming US economic reports that could influence market sentiment, including ISM Manufacturing PMI data, ADP employment figures, and nonfarm payroll numbers.
He noted that weaker employment data combined with stubborn inflation could create a difficult challenge for the Federal Reserve as policymakers balance economic growth concerns with inflation risks.
Looking ahead to the June meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee under the leadership of Kevin Warsh, Doctor Profit said investors appear to be anticipating a more accommodative policy stance. However, he remains doubtful that policymakers will deliver the level of support markets are expecting.
Derivatives Market Remains Below Previous Strength
Additional concerns come from the state of the Bitcoin derivatives market, which has yet to fully recover from a major liquidation event that erased nearly 71,000 BTC worth of open interest across leading exchanges in a matter of hours.
Market analyst Darkfost noted that although activity has improved since the selloff, total Bitcoin open interest excluding CME remains below levels seen before the liquidation. Current open interest stands at around 351,000 BTC, compared with nearly 375,000 BTC before the event.
One notable exception has been Binance, which has continued to grow both its open interest and overall market share. This trend may suggest that traders are increasingly concentrating their activity on platforms offering deeper liquidity and greater market depth.
For now, the combination of macroeconomic uncertainty, lingering weakness in derivatives markets, and bearish technical signals continues to support a cautious outlook for Bitcoin in the months ahead.#crypto#cryptonews https://coinsignals.net https://t.me/coinsignalpublic
