A recent analysis by crypto market commentator ChartNerd suggests that XRP’s current bear market may be significantly less severe than previous cycles, raising the possibility that the asset could establish a major bottom before the end of 2026 and eventually climb toward much higher price levels.
According to the analyst, XRP’s latest correction has been relatively modest compared to historical downturns, potentially signaling a shift in the asset’s long term market behavior.
Current Bear Market Less Severe Than Past Cycles
ChartNerd compared XRP’s previous market cycles and found that past bear markets typically lasted between 400 and 790 days while wiping out 85% to 90% of the asset’s value from peak levels.
In contrast, the current downturn has lasted roughly 350 days and has resulted in a decline of nearly 70% from XRP’s all time high of $3.65 reached in July 2025.
The analyst argued that both the duration and depth of the current correction are notably milder than historical examples, suggesting that each cycle may be becoming less extreme over time.
He noted that XRP is entering a price range where investors should begin paying closer attention to the possibility of a long term bottom forming, even if a major breakout is not immediately expected.
Further Weakness Still Possible
Despite the optimistic longer term outlook, ChartNerd cautioned that additional downside cannot be ruled out.
His broader market view suggests that XRP may still need to experience further weakness before establishing a definitive cycle low. If that occurs, he expects a period of accumulation to follow before the asset begins a new upward trend.
Using Fibonacci extension analysis, the analyst identified potential future targets of $8, $13, and $27 if a new bullish cycle develops after the market bottom is confirmed.
Historical Exception Highlights Market Risks
ChartNerd also pointed to XRP’s 2014 bear market as a notable exception to historical trends.
During that period, XRP lost approximately 96% of its value in about 210 days. However, the recovery proved much slower than in later cycles, with the asset taking more than 1,200 days to surpass its previous record high.
A significant wick low formed toward the end of 2017 before XRP eventually reached its cycle peak in January 2018.
XRP Remains Under Pressure
At the time of analysis, XRP was trading around $1.15.
The token has fallen roughly 12% over the past week and remains about 19% lower than its price one month ago. During the recent market selloff, XRP dropped to a 19 month low near $1.05 before staging a rebound to approximately $1.20. It has since eased slightly from those recovery highs.
XRP ETFs Offer a Positive Signal
While XRP’s price performance has struggled, investor interest in XRP exchange traded funds has provided a rare bright spot.
Spot XRP ETFs recorded net inflows of approximately $2.62 million last week. Although modest in absolute terms, the figure stands out given the broader weakness across the ETF market.
During the same period, spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced more than $1.7 billion in net outflows, while spot Ethereum ETFs saw withdrawals totaling around $173 million.
Among major crypto ETF products, only HYPE related funds attracted stronger demand, recording nearly $17 million in net inflows. Meanwhile, investment products tied to Litecoin, Avalanche, and Hedera saw little to no notable activity.
Although short term uncertainty remains, ChartNerd believes XRP could be approaching a critical stage in its market cycle, with a potential bottom over the next year laying the foundation for a future move toward significantly higher price levels.#crypto#cryptonews https://coinsignals.net https://t.me/coinsignalpublic
