Bitcoin could be approaching the final stage of its current bear market cycle, with a potential bottom forming around the 2026 FIFA World Cup, scheduled from June 11 to July 19, according to a June 12 report from BIT Research.
The researchers argue that a combination of technical market structure, weak investor sentiment, and easing inflation pressures may eventually set the conditions for a major recovery after months of sustained decline.
World Cup period viewed as possible cycle low
BIT Research says Bitcoin has been moving through an A-B-C corrective pattern since the downturn began in October 2025.
In their framework, Wave A saw Bitcoin fall into the 60,000 to 69,000 dollar range. Wave B then pushed the price back toward the 80,000 to 90,000 dollar area, with a peak near 83,000 dollars in mid May before momentum faded.
The firm now believes the market is in Wave C, the final corrective phase. It estimates a potential bottom zone between 50,000 and 55,000 dollars, with the World Cup period seen as the most likely timeframe for that low.
Sentiment and technical indicators turning bearish
The report notes that the Fear and Greed Index has returned to deeply depressed levels, similar to conditions observed near the 2022 market bottom.
Technical indicators also reflect weakness. BIT highlights that stochastic signals are deeply oversold, while Bitcoin is trading more than two standard deviations below its weekly moving average.
Key levels to watch include 61,576 dollars as a possible support zone, while the realized price, currently around 54,591 dollars, is viewed as an important threshold where Bitcoin has historically become undervalued.
The report adds that although price can briefly fall below realized price, it rarely stays there for long.
Inflation still a key macro factor
The analysts also emphasize macroeconomic conditions, particularly inflation. They compare the current environment to 2022, when easing inflation helped confirm a cycle bottom. A similar shift, they suggest, may be necessary for a durable reversal this time as well.
Recent price action
Bitcoin has experienced sharp declines over the past several weeks. After failing to hold near 73,000 dollars in early June, it dropped through 70,000, 65,000, and eventually below the 60,000 dollar support level.
The decline bottomed just above 59,000 dollars last Friday, marking its lowest level in nearly two years before rebounding toward 63,000 dollars. At the time of writing, it has slipped back below 63,000 dollars, leaving it down more than 22 percent over the past month and nearly 42 percent year over year.
Much of the recent volatility has been driven by geopolitical tensions, particularly fluctuations tied to the ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran, where market sentiment has reacted sharply to developments involving strikes, retaliation risks, and peace negotiations.
BIT Research concludes that the market may still require one to three months before a confirmed trend reversal appears, but suggests that the opening of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at Estadio Azteca could coincide with the final stage of the current cycle’s downturn.#crypto#cryptonews https://coinsignals.net https://t.me/coinsignalpublic
