Bitcoin briefly dipped toward $74,000 over the past 24 hours before rebounding above $76,800, marking a 13% loss for the week. Analysts now point to a deeper bear market with a lower projected cycle bottom than previously expected.
Lower Cycle Expectations
Prominent crypto analyst Doctor Profit has revised his forecast for Bitcoin’s cycle low, placing it between $54,000 and $44,000. He cites the recent drop below the 100-week moving average (MA100 Weekly) as a critical signal, noting that this indicator has historically separated bull and bear market conditions. BTC’s break above the MA100 Weekly in October 2023 confirmed the prior bull market, and now losing it again signals a transition into a bear market.
Doctor Profit also highlighted the formation of a death cross and a confirmed breakdown from a bearish flag pattern, which mirrors the market structure seen during the 2021–2022 cycle peak. He expects Bitcoin to close the coming week below the MA100 Weekly, consolidate, and then continue lower toward $70,000, which he does not consider the true cycle bottom. Based on updated models, he now identifies $54,000–$44,000 as the most likely area for the ultimate low.
He also noted additional market pressure from Strategy, a firm that acquired a significant portion of its Bitcoin using leverage. The decline of the firm’s stock, used as collateral, has made stabilization more difficult, with BTC currently below Strategy’s average entry price of around $76,000. Doctor Profit warned that external narratives, such as speculation around Epstein-related files, could also trigger emotional selling.
Weakening Institutional Demand
Matrixport added to the bearish outlook, pointing to declining demand from traditional investors through spot Bitcoin ETFs. The firm observed three consecutive months of net outflows, with the last meaningful inflows in July and a brief resurgence in October. Despite a broader gold rally and continued de-dollarization trends, ETF inflows have slowed, suggesting that Bitcoin may need a refreshed narrative to attract renewed interest from traditional finance before forming a durable bottom.
In summary, while BTC has rebounded above $76,000, multiple indicators suggest that the deeper cycle low is likely much lower, with the $54,000–$44,000 range emerging as the potential final bottom.
