Bitcoin’s recent rebound has revived hopes that the worst of the current bear market is over, but one market analyst believes the correction may not be finished just yet.
Pseudonymous trader NoName argues that Bitcoin (BTC) could still decline into the $39,000 to $49,000 range before establishing a lasting market bottom, despite its recent recovery from lower levels.
Recovery Could Be a Setup for One More Sell Off
In a post published on X on 28 July, NoName said the current market sentiment closely resembles the final stages of the 2018 bear market, when many traders mistook a temporary rally for the beginning of a new bull cycle.
According to the analyst, Bitcoin is currently moving higher because there is an unfilled fair value gap (FVG) above the market. A fair value gap is an area created by a rapid price move where little or no trading occurs, and traders often expect price to revisit those levels before continuing its broader trend.
Rather than viewing the latest rally as a confirmed reversal, NoName believes Bitcoin is simply moving higher to fill that gap before another significant decline.
The analyst expects BTC to complete the gap and then fall immediately, or within the following one to three days, beginning what could become a multi week search for a market bottom between $39,000 and $49,000.
Only after that process is complete would NoName consider adopting a bullish outlook.
Analyst Maintains Bearish Outlook
The latest forecast builds on the trader’s earlier calls.
NoName previously said they sold Bitcoin near its 2025 all time high of around $117,000 before the subsequent bear market unfolded.
The analyst believes market psychology has shifted from extreme optimism at the peak to widespread pessimism today, but still argues that the bear market has several weeks remaining before Bitcoin reaches an attractive long term buying zone.
Traders Remain Split on Bitcoin’s Next Move
Market expectations continue to differ sharply.
Prediction platform Kalshi currently assigns a 55% probability that Bitcoin will fall to $50,000 before reclaiming the $100,000 level, highlighting ongoing uncertainty about the cryptocurrency’s next major move.
Not everyone agrees with the bearish scenario.
Trader KillaXBT argued that too many investors are waiting for Bitcoin to revisit $50,000 or even $40,000, drawing comparisons with 2022 when many expected a drop to $10,000 that never materialised.
According to KillaXBT, history has repeatedly shown that gradually accumulating Bitcoin over time has generally produced better results than attempting to buy at the exact market bottom.
Bitcoin Pulls Back Ahead of Fed Decision
Bitcoin’s latest price action has done little to resolve the debate.
After briefly recovering above $65,000 following easing tensions between the United States and Iran, the cryptocurrency reversed course and slipped back towards $63,000 as investors positioned themselves ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate announcement.
According to CoinGecko data, Bitcoin is down roughly 3% over the past week but remains more than 5% higher over the last 30 days. Even so, the asset continues to trade nearly 50% below its October 2025 all time high of more than $126,000.#crypto#cryptonews https://coinsignals.net https://t.me/coinsignalpublic
