Bitcoin’s demand indicators have shown modest improvement in recent days, but overall conditions remain weak despite the asset’s latest price rebound.
Over the past week, Bitcoin (BTC) has staged a recovery, pushing prices closer to several key technical levels. However, analysts at crypto analytics firm CryptoQuant caution that the broader market remains under bearish control, suggesting the recent move may be nothing more than a temporary rally.
In its latest weekly report, CryptoQuant noted that while BTC demand has ticked up slightly, the improvement is minimal and insufficient to signal a meaningful shift in market structure. This supports the view that the market is still in a bearish phase, even with Bitcoin’s recent gains.
Bitcoin Shows Signs of a Bear Market Rally
Since November 21, 2025, BTC has climbed roughly 20% from its lows. This rebound followed a sharp 19% drop that confirmed the onset of a bear market when Bitcoin fell below its 365-day moving average (MA). The recent price surge has brought BTC back toward that key level, which currently sits near $101,000.
Historically, the 365-day MA has served as a critical boundary between bull and bear markets. In previous cycles, Bitcoin has repeatedly failed to break above this level during bear markets before resuming its downward trend. A similar pattern played out during the 2022 bear market, and analysts suggest the current setup looks no different.
The recent price rally has occurred alongside marginally improved but still weak demand conditions. Spot demand continues to contract, even though some U.S.-based indicators briefly turned positive. Metrics such as the Coinbase Price Premium and flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs showed short-lived improvements, with the Coinbase premium moving out of deeply negative territory for the second time since mid-December 2025.
Demand Still Under Pressure
Despite the short-term bounce, spot Bitcoin ETFs have shown no signs of strong accumulation. Instead, they merely paused net selling during the rally after liquidating approximately 54,000 BTC over a 30-day period in November 2025. Overall ETF activity does not yet point to a meaningful resurgence in U.S. investor demand.
On-chain data further reinforces this cautious outlook. Apparent Bitcoin demand has declined by around 67,000 BTC over the past 30 days and has remained negative since November 28, 2025. So far this year, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have accumulated just 3,800 BTC only slightly more than the 3,600 BTC recorded at the same point last year and well below levels typically seen during early bull-market recoveries.
Adding to the downside risk, analysts warn that selling pressure may intensify in the coming weeks. Bitcoin inflows to exchanges have increased following the rally, with transfers averaging 39,000 BTC over the past seven days. Historically, rising exchange inflows often precede heightened selling activity, suggesting further headwinds could lie ahead for BTC.
