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Bitcoin’s long-term market cycles may be influenced by the U.S. election calendar, with historical data suggesting the cryptocurrency tends to recover after midterm elections, according to Alphractal founder Joao Wedson.

In a July 30 post on X, Wedson argued that Bitcoin has repeatedly entered bear markets in the year leading up to U.S. midterm elections before launching into sustained bull markets once the political uncertainty surrounding the vote subsides.

Historical Election Trends Stand Out

After comparing Bitcoin’s price action with previous U.S. election cycles, Wedson identified what he believes is a recurring pattern.

His analysis suggests Bitcoin typically falls into a bear market roughly one year before midterm elections, with market bottoms forming either shortly before or soon after voters cast their ballots. From there, the cryptocurrency has historically transitioned into a longer-term uptrend.

Presidential election years appear to tell a different story. According to Wedson, Bitcoin has consistently rallied following presidential victories before eventually reaching a major cycle peak not long after the new president takes office.

“Data reveals patterns that narratives often miss,” the analyst wrote.

He also pointed to XRP as another example, noting that the token began a strong rally immediately after Donald Trump won the 2024 U.S. presidential election and reached a local high on January 20, 2025, the day of his inauguration.

Wedson’s findings echo conclusions from an earlier Binance Research report, which also observed that Bitcoin has historically underperformed during U.S. midterm election years before recovering once political uncertainty eased.

According to that report, Bitcoin has declined by an average of about 56% during completed midterm election cycles since 2014, followed by average gains of roughly 54% in the year after the elections.

Recovery Alone Doesn’t Confirm a New Bull Market

Wedson has previously cautioned investors against assuming that rising prices automatically signal the start of a new bull cycle.

He argued that a genuine market bottom requires more than a rebound in price. In his view, investors should also see evidence of widespread capitulation, reduced leverage across the market, and fresh capital entering through short-term holders before concluding that a lasting trend reversal has occurred.

Macro Environment Remains a Key Variable

With roughly three months remaining until Americans head to the polls, Bitcoin is trading around $64,000—nearly 50% below its October 2025 all-time high above $126,000.

Over the past week, the cryptocurrency has slipped around 2.5%, according to CoinGecko data, though it remains nearly 8% higher over the last month.

Bitcoin has also held up relatively well following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s latest decision to keep interest rates unchanged within the 3.50% to 3.75% range. Whether historical election patterns play out again may ultimately depend on broader macroeconomic conditions and investor sentiment in the months ahead.#crypto#cryptonews https://coinsignals.net https://t.me/coinsignalpublic

A widely followed crypto analyst believes Bitcoin has completed a long-term technical formation that could pave the way for a rally to at least $220,000.

Vivek Sen told his more than 270,000 followers on X that Bitcoin has successfully confirmed a multi-year cup-and-handle pattern after breaking above resistance and retesting the breakout level.

According to Sen, the setup has been years in the making and now signals the beginning of a much larger move.

“These breakouts don’t typically produce 20% gains—they often lead to moves of several hundred percent,” he said, adding that $220,000 is the minimum price target.

Historic Pattern Has Previously Preceded Major Bitcoin Rallies

The cup-and-handle is one of the best-known bullish continuation patterns in technical analysis. It forms a rounded “cup” followed by a shorter consolidation, or “handle,” before breaking above resistance. The projected price target is generally calculated by adding the depth of the cup to the breakout point.

Bitcoin has produced similar formations in previous market cycles.

During the 2020-2021 bull market, the asset formed a multi-month cup after falling from its 2019 highs into the 2020 market low. A consolidation phase during the summer of 2020 completed the handle before Bitcoin surged to its then-record high of nearly $69,000 in November 2021.

Another large rounded bottom developed throughout 2022 and 2023 as institutional accumulation increased. By early 2024, Bitcoin traded sideways between roughly $60,000 and $69,000, forming another handle before eventually breaking above $100,000.

Some analysts, however, believe the broader cycle has not yet fully played out, with October still viewed by many as a potential market bottom and turning point.

Risk Indicators Paint a Mixed Picture

Market intelligence platform Swissblock recently reported that Bitcoin’s Risk Index peaked in late June before falling into a low-risk zone, helping reduce selling pressure and stabilize prices.

At the same time, analysts noted a growing divergence between Bitcoin’s improving risk profile and the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), commonly referred to as Wall Street’s “fear index.”

A rising VIX typically reflects growing uncertainty in traditional financial markets and can weigh on risk assets such as Bitcoin. Conversely, a lower and more stable VIX generally supports investor appetite for higher-risk investments.

Swissblock cautioned that if the VIX continues climbing while Bitcoin’s Risk Index also begins to rise again, market conditions could deteriorate.

Sen’s $220,000 forecast follows another high-profile prediction released this week that projected Bitcoin could reach as much as $450,000 by March 2028.

Bitcoin Holds Steady Following Fed Decision

Bitcoin traded in a volatile range over the past 24 hours after the U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged. The cryptocurrency briefly tested the $64,500 level three separate times before retreating to the upper-$63,000 range during Thursday’s Asian trading session.

Geopolitical tensions also remain on investors’ radar after the United States resumed military strikes on Iran late Wednesday. U.S. Central Command described the operation as a response to what it called recent attempted Iranian attacks on American forces stationed in the Middle East, adding another layer of uncertainty for global financial markets.#crypto#cryptonews https://coinsignals.net https://t.me/coinsignalpublic

Grayscale CEO Peter Mintzberg has disclosed plans to sell his entire personal stake in the Grayscale XRP Trust ETF, according to a recent filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

On July 28, Mintzberg submitted a Form 144 seeking approval to sell 2,611 GXRP shares that he purchased directly from the trust in a private transaction in October 2024.

The filing values the proposed sale at approximately $53,395, based on a share price of $20.45, with Cantor Fitzgerald set to execute the transaction on NYSE Arca. Form 144 filings indicate an intent to sell and do not confirm that the shares have actually been sold.

Third Grayscale Executive to File GXRP Sale Notice

Mintzberg became Grayscale’s CEO on August 15, 2024, after joining from Goldman Sachs. Roughly seven weeks later, he acquired the GXRP shares through a privately negotiated cash purchase while the trust was still available only to accredited investors.

By September 2025, the trust had grown to nearly $17 million in assets across 301,500 shares.

Mintzberg is the third Grayscale insider to disclose plans involving GXRP shares this year.

In January, Digital Currency Group founder Barry Silbert, listed as a 10% shareholder, filed to sell 9,158 shares valued at about $336,373 through a Roth IRA using Capital Institutional Services. Around the same time, Grayscale Chief Legal Officer Craig Salm disclosed plans to sell 7,123 shares worth roughly $266,970 through Canaccord Genuity.

While Silbert’s filing identified OTCQX as the trading venue, both Salm and Mintzberg listed NYSE Arca.

All three executives accumulated their holdings during the same seven-week period in late 2024. Silbert purchased 4,407 shares on September 14 and another 4,751 on October 4. Salm acquired 2,319 shares on October 8 before adding 4,804 more on October 31.

The earlier January filings implied share prices between $36.73 and $37.48, compared with the $20.45 valuation in Mintzberg’s latest filing, representing a decline of roughly 44% over six months.

Outstanding Shares Shrink as XRP ETF Market Evolves

The trust’s outstanding share count has also dropped significantly. January filings listed approximately 5.79 million shares outstanding, while Mintzberg’s July filing shows just 2.84 million shares, a reduction of nearly 2.95 million shares, or about 51%.

At the current filing price, the trust is valued at roughly $58 million. That remains well below the largest spot XRP ETF products, with Bitwise’s fund approaching $500 million in assets and Canary’s XPC managing nearly $470 million.

Grayscale listed GXRP on NYSE Arca on November 24, 2025, eleven days after the first U.S. spot XRP ETF began trading on Nasdaq.

Despite total inflows nearing $1.5 billion since launch across U.S. spot XRP ETFs, investor activity has slowed recently. Seven of the ten trading days leading up to July 19 recorded zero net inflows across the sector.

As of July 30, XRP was trading around $1.07, approximately 70.5% below its all-time high of $3.65 reached on July 17, 2025.#crypto#cryptonews https://coinsignals.nethttps://t.me/coinsignalpublic

A crypto analyst believes Bitcoin’s current downturn is only a temporary pause in a much larger bull cycle, forecasting the asset could climb as high as $450,000 by early 2028. The bold prediction has triggered intense debate, with critics arguing it conflicts with Bitcoin’s historical market cycles.

Analyst Sees Current Decline as Mid-Cycle Correction

In a July 29 preview of his newsletter shared on X, crypto analyst Sykodelic argued that Bitcoin has not yet reached the end of its long-term bull market. Instead, he described the ongoing bear market as a mid-cycle correction similar to those seen between 2011 and 2013 and again from 2019 to 2021.

Based on that outlook, he expects Bitcoin to trade between $380,000 and $450,000 beginning in March 2028.

His projection relies on two key indicators: the 200-week simple moving average multiplied by five and a 95th-percentile statistical model, which is already approaching $330,000.

According to Sykodelic, every major Bitcoin cycle peak has reached the 200-week SMA multiplied by five, a level that currently sits around $320,000 and continues to rise as Bitcoin’s price increases.

He also argued that a move from Bitcoin’s current price to $380,000 would represent only a 5.5-fold gain, far smaller than the roughly 23-fold rally from around $3,000 to nearly $69,000 during the 2020-2021 bull market. In his view, such appreciation is not only achievable but increasingly likely.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading above $64,000 after a modest rebound. Recent weakness has been attributed to investor caution ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy decision, broader market uncertainty, and continued outflows from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds.

Critics Question the Forecast

The prediction quickly drew skepticism from market observers.

An X user known as Bitcoin Daily, who identified as a data scientist, argued that applying Sykodelic’s own 890-day cycle model backward from Bitcoin’s October 2025 peak points to spring 2023 as the cycle midpoint. If that calculation is correct, October 2025 would represent the cycle top rather than the middle of the bull market.

The critic also noted that Sykodelic omitted the 2015-2017 cycle from his analysis and compared two rallies that occurred under very different market conditions. One followed a full cycle peak that ended with an 89% decline, while the other represented a bear market rally that later fell about 55%.

Historical timing also became a key point of contention. According to Bitcoin Daily, the last three Bitcoin cycle peaks occurred 525, 546, and 534 days after their respective halving events. By contrast, Sykodelic’s projected March 2028 peak would arrive roughly 38 days before the next halving, something that has never happened in Bitcoin’s history.

The analyst also argued that applying the same 890-day calculation to several other local highs since June 2024 produces possible peak dates ranging from May 2027 to October 2028. He said the wide 17-month range suggests the March 2028 target was selected rather than derived from the model.

Sykodelic rejected those criticisms, questioning the idea that spring 2023 could reasonably qualify as a mid-cycle high only months after Bitcoin’s November 2022 bear market bottom. He also explained that he excluded the 2013-2019 period because, in his view, that cycle did not experience a meaningful mid-cycle correction.#crypto#cryptonews https://coinsignals.net https://t.me/coinsignalpublic

Bitcoin posted its fourth consecutive weekly gain for the first time since April, but weakening demand and fading momentum are raising questions about whether the recent recovery can continue.

The leading cryptocurrency ended last week up just over 1%, extending its winning streak. However, optimism faded after a sharp reversal midweek, suggesting buyers are struggling to sustain the rally.

Bitcoin briefly climbed to $67,000 on Tuesday before falling roughly 5% as short-term holders took profits near their cost basis. The rejection reinforced resistance in that area and highlighted the market’s difficulty in breaking above its recent trading range.

Institutional Interest Continues to Weaken

According to the latest Bitfinex Alpha report, the short-term holder cost basis has stabilized around $68,500, a level analysts now view as significant resistance. They believe Bitcoin will need stronger buying pressure to move decisively above it.

That demand has yet to materialize despite continued inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. Institutional activity remains subdued, with CME Bitcoin futures open interest slipping below $6 billion and options activity dropping to its lowest level since September 2023.

ETF data also reflects the cooling demand. Although U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a third consecutive week of net inflows totaling $33.9 million, the funds experienced $465.2 million in net outflows on Thursday and Friday alone. Even BlackRock’s IBIT finished the period with negative net flows.

Macro Headwinds Keep Bitcoin Stuck in Range

Another indication of weakening institutional appetite is the Coinbase Premium Index, which has stayed below zero for more than 60 straight trading days. Bitfinex described the current environment as a typical summer slowdown, noting that 30-day spot trading volume is only 62.4% of its annual average.

Outside the crypto market, broader macroeconomic pressures continue to cloud Bitcoin’s outlook. Rising diesel prices in the U.S. are increasing transportation and production costs, fueling concerns that inflation could remain stubbornly high.

Persistent inflation may complicate the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions, with futures markets currently assigning roughly a one-in-three probability of a rate hike at this week’s FOMC meeting.

The report also highlighted that the U.S. 10-year real yield has climbed to 2.43%, nearing a level that has historically weighed on risk assets. Until stronger demand or a new catalyst emerges, Bitcoin is expected to remain trapped between $63,000 and $68,500.#crypto#cryptonews https://coinsignals.net https://t.me/coinsignalpublic

Lido has begun transferring most of its staked Ethereum to Ethereum’s new generation of Pectra enabled validators, marking a major upgrade that also requires node operators to lock up their own ETH as collateral for the first time.

The liquid staking protocol is consolidating its infrastructure by replacing thousands of traditional 32 ETH validators with a much smaller number of high capacity validators introduced through Ethereum’s Pectra upgrade.

Over $16 Billion in Staked ETH Being Upgraded

Ethereum’s Pectra hard fork, which went live in May 2025, increased the maximum effective balance for each validator from 32 ETH to 2,048 ETH using 0x02 credentials. Lido’s Curated Module v2 now fully supports the new validator model, with Phase 1 officially launching earlier this week.

The migration affects Lido’s Curated Module, the permissioned validator network that has managed more than 90% of all ETH staked through the protocol since its launch in 2020. In total, the upgrade covers over 265,000 validators and more than 8 million ETH, valued at approximately $16 billion.

The transition comes during a more challenging period for the protocol. As previously reported by CryptoPotato, Lido’s annual revenue dropped by around 25%, while its share of Ethereum’s staking market declined from above 28% in 2024 to just over 24% by the end of 2025.

Operators Now Required to Lock Their Own ETH

One of the biggest changes is the introduction of financial accountability for node operators. Rather than relying solely on trust, operators must now stake their own ETH as collateral. If an operator is penalised or fails to meet performance standards, part of that bonded ETH can be forfeited.

Although operators in the Curated Module are still required to post smaller bonds than those in Lido’s permissionless staking modules because of their established reputation, the update ensures they now have direct financial exposure.

The governance changes also streamline operations by removing the need for DAO votes on routine administrative actions, such as updating an operator’s address, making the process more efficient.

The migration is expected to take several months because Ethereum limits how quickly validators can exit and rejoin the network. During the transition, validators will not earn staking rewards, with Lido estimating the temporary loss at roughly 738.5 ETH. While the theoretical minimum completion time is 117 days, the protocol expects the full process to take closer to six months.#crypto#cryptonews https://coinsignals.net https://t.me/coinsignalpublic

Prominent figures from the cryptocurrency industry are raising concerns about the growing role of governments in regulating artificial intelligence, arguing that allowing authorities to decide what AI systems can learn or discuss could set a dangerous precedent.

The debate intensified after Erik Voorhees warned on X that governments should never be given the power to determine what forms of intelligence are considered “safe,” following renewed discussions about AI regulation.

Voorhees Pushes Back Against Expanding AI Restrictions

The ShapeShift founder and longtime Bitcoin advocate made his comments after Anthropic published a statement from Chief Executive Dario Amodei, who rejected claims that the company supports banning Chinese open weight AI models.

Amodei clarified that Anthropic has never called for a ban on open weight models, arguing that such systems can provide significant benefits for developers, researchers, and businesses when they do not possess capabilities that pose serious risks.

According to Anthropic, its primary concerns centre on the misuse of advanced AI by authoritarian governments, particularly for military operations or mass surveillance, as well as its potential use in cyberattacks and biological threats.

The company supports measures including tighter controls on access to advanced AI chips, action against large scale model distillation, and rigorous safety testing for highly capable AI systems before deployment.

Slippery Slope Concerns

Voorhees argued that giving governments authority over what AI can know could gradually expand far beyond its original purpose.

He outlined a hypothetical progression in which restrictions could begin with preventing AI from discussing biological weapons before extending to dangerous weapons more broadly, then public health, public safety, financial stability, encryption, and eventually any information that conflicts with government directives.

According to Voorhees, allowing the state to define acceptable knowledge poses a long term threat to intellectual freedom.

He argued that society should never permit governments to determine what forms of intelligence are considered safe, adding that preserving independent AI systems is essential for protecting open societies.

Crypto Community Voices Support

Voorhees’ comments quickly gained support from several prominent members of the cryptocurrency community.

Ripple Chief Technology Officer Emeritus David Schwartz endorsed the argument, responding that he completely agreed with Voorhees’ concerns.

Meanwhile, XRP community member Bird questioned where government oversight would ultimately end if authorities were allowed to decide which knowledge AI systems could access or discuss.

Broader Debate Over AI Regulation Continues

The discussion reflects a wider divide over how advanced AI should be governed.

Earlier this month, Google DeepMind Chief Executive Demis Hassabis proposed creating a federally supported organisation responsible for evaluating and certifying frontier AI models before they are released to the public.

The proposal received support from OpenAI Chief Executive Sam Altman, who described the idea as thoughtful, while Microsoft Chief Executive Satya Nadella said independent testing could help prevent highly capable AI systems from causing serious harm.

Not everyone agrees.

Coinbase Chief Executive Brian Armstrong criticised the proposal, arguing that creating another oversight body would simply add unnecessary layers of regulation.

Armstrong said existing legal frameworks covering fraud, consumer protection, and civil liability already provide mechanisms to address potential harm caused by AI systems, making additional regulatory institutions unnecessary.#crypto#cryptonews https://coinsignals.net https://t.me/coinsignalpublic

Actor and outspoken cryptocurrency critic Ben McKenzie has urged US lawmakers to vote against the CLARITY Act, arguing that the legislation could benefit President Donald Trump’s growing involvement in the digital asset industry.

McKenzie made the appeal during an anti corruption forum on Capitol Hill on Monday, where he appeared alongside Senate Democrats, including Richard Blumenthal and Chris Van Hollen, to voice opposition to the proposed legislation.

Critics Say the Bill Leaves Ethical Concerns Unresolved

Speaking at the event, McKenzie argued that lawmakers cannot claim to oppose what he described as Trump’s crypto related conflicts of interest while simultaneously supporting the CLARITY Act.

He warned that the legislation, if passed in its current form, would fail to prevent potential conflicts and encouraged Democratic lawmakers to vote against it, noting that only a small number of votes could determine the bill’s outcome.

The criticism comes as Democrats continue pressing for stronger ethics provisions, enhanced consumer protections, and additional national security safeguards.

Although Republicans amended the legislation to prohibit the president and other senior public officials from issuing or sponsoring cryptocurrencies, Senator Richard Blumenthal argued that the revised language still contains loopholes that could allow Trump to continue benefiting from his cryptocurrency interests.

Blumenthal claimed that Trump earned billions of dollars last year and said a significant portion of that income came from cryptocurrency related ventures that, in his view, exploit weaknesses in existing regulations.

He also argued that the CLARITY Act does not require Trump to divest his crypto holdings and noted that the bill’s ethics provisions would expire in 2029. According to Blumenthal, relying on the Department of Justice to enforce those rules would not provide sufficient oversight.

Democratic lawmakers said they intend to use upcoming negotiations to push for further amendments before the legislation reaches the Senate floor, where it will require at least 60 votes to advance.

New York Attorney General Raises Oversight Concerns

New York Attorney General Letitia James also expressed concerns about the proposed legislation, warning that it could weaken states’ ability to pursue cryptocurrency fraud cases.

James argued that limiting state level enforcement powers could make it more difficult to hold digital asset companies accountable at a time when crypto related scams continue to cost Americans billions of dollars each year.

She called on Congress to strengthen investor protections rather than reduce regulatory authority, adding that robust oversight is essential for maintaining confidence in financial markets and protecting both the economy and national security.

Senate Consideration Delayed

The future of the CLARITY Act remains uncertain.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune has postponed consideration of the bill while the Senate prioritises confirming government nominees and debating legislation related to sanctions on Russia.

As a result, the crypto legislation is no longer expected to be considered before the summer recess, making September the earliest likely opportunity for lawmakers to resume debate.#crypto#cryptonews https://coinsignals.net https://t.me/coinsignalpublic

A federal judge has temporarily prevented Minnesota from enforcing a new law that would have banned prediction markets, giving platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket an early legal victory while the broader case moves through the courts.

The ruling allows both companies to continue offering event based contracts to users in Minnesota for the time being.

Judge Finds Federal Law Likely Takes Priority

According to Reuters, US District Judge Katherine Menendez granted a preliminary injunction after concluding that Minnesota’s law is likely overridden by the federal Commodity Exchange Act.

The legislation, which was scheduled to take effect on Saturday, would have made it illegal to operate, host, or promote prediction markets within the state.

The legal challenge followed legislation signed by Governor Tim Walz in May. Unlike previous disputes in other states, where regulators argued prediction market platforms were operating unlicensed gambling businesses under existing gaming laws, Minnesota introduced legislation specifically targeting prediction markets.

Judge Menendez found that several contracts offered by Kalshi and Polymarket are likely to qualify as swaps under federal law. Since swaps fall under the jurisdiction of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), she concluded that federal regulation is likely to preempt the state’s attempt to ban those products.

The judge noted that the scope of the injunction could be narrowed later if the court determines that certain contracts do not meet the legal definition of swaps. Until then, maintaining the current status was deemed the most appropriate course while the lawsuit proceeds.

Both Sides Stand by Their Positions

Kalshi welcomed the ruling, with company spokesperson Elisabeth Diana saying the decision reinforces the principle that states cannot regulate activities beyond their legal authority.

Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison, however, said the state disagrees with the court’s decision and intends to continue defending the legislation.

Ellison argued that prediction markets are a form of gambling and maintained that Minnesota has the right to protect residents from what he described as predatory gambling activities.

Legal Challenges Continue for Prediction Markets

The Minnesota case is the latest in a series of legal and regulatory challenges facing Kalshi.

The company is also dealing with restrictions and disputes in Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, and Washington as regulators continue examining the legality of prediction markets across different jurisdictions.

Earlier this year, Kalshi also strengthened enforcement of its own compliance policies.

In April, the platform suspended three US political candidates after determining they had traded contracts linked to elections in which they were competing. Kalshi classified the activity as political insider trading and said it violated trading rules approved by the CFTC.

Minnesota State Senator Matt Klein and Texas candidate Ezekiel Enriquez each placed trades worth less than $100 on markets involving their own elections. Both accepted financial penalties and five year suspensions from the platform.

Virginia candidate Mark Moran received a larger fine and an identical five year ban after executing multiple trades and declining to settle with the company. Moran later said he had placed the trades to test Kalshi’s enforcement procedures.

Polymarket Also Faces Scrutiny

The ruling also comes amid separate legal issues involving Polymarket.

In May, federal prosecutors charged Google software engineer Michele Spagnuolo, known online as AlphaRaccoon, with allegedly using confidential Google search data to generate approximately $1.2 million in profits through trades on Polymarket.

Authorities claim he accessed unreleased Year in Search 2025 rankings before they became public and used that nonpublic information to place successful bets on a related prediction market.#crypto#cryptonews https://coinsignals.net https://t.me/coinsignalpublic

Bitcoin may have slipped back towards $63,000, but on chain data suggests the broader market structure remains healthy as large investors continue accumulating while supply on exchanges keeps shrinking.

Although the leading cryptocurrency has fallen roughly 3% over the past 24 hours, several key indicators point to continued long term confidence among institutional and high net worth holders.

Large Investors Continue Accumulating

According to blockchain analytics platform Santiment, wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC accumulated a combined 19,696 Bitcoin over the past eight days.

Smaller wallets, particularly those holding less than 0.01 BTC, have shown much weaker buying activity during the recent decline, suggesting retail investors are becoming more cautious.

Institutional demand has also remained steady.

Spot Bitcoin exchange traded funds have attracted more than $222 million in net inflows so far this month, reinforcing the view that larger market participants continue building positions despite short term price weakness.

Santiment said these trends create a constructive market backdrop, with Bitcoin increasingly moving into the hands of long term investors rather than short term traders.

Consolidation Phase Continues

Market intelligence firm Swissblock believes Bitcoin remains in what it describes as a bullish transition phase.

The firm noted that during the previous market cycle, Bitcoin consolidated for roughly 40 days before beginning its recovery. The current consolidation has lasted around 30 days, suggesting the market could still be building a foundation for its next move.

According to Swissblock, Bitcoin must continue holding its bottoming signals before a sustained recovery can develop.

The firm added that transition periods often test investor patience by creating uncertainty and shaking out weaker hands before a broader uptrend resumes.

Exchange Balances Continue to Decline

Despite Bitcoin trading nearly 50% below its October 2025 record high of $126,200, on chain data indicates investors are continuing to move coins away from exchanges.

Figures from CryptoQuant show that exchange reserves have declined by roughly 78,000 BTC over the past six months, falling from 2.783 million to approximately 2.705 million BTC, bringing exchange balances close to the lowest levels of the current market cycle.

During periods of panic selling, investors typically transfer Bitcoin onto exchanges in preparation to sell.

Instead, the latest trend shows holders increasingly moving assets into private wallets, signalling a preference for long term self custody rather than distribution.

CryptoQuant noted that reduced exchange supply could strengthen future price rallies if demand increases. However, the firm cautioned that a sustained rise in the seven day average of exchange netflows would suggest renewed selling pressure and increase the likelihood of Bitcoin revisiting the $58,000 level.

Large Withdrawals Add to Bullish Signals

Further evidence of accumulation emerged on Monday when blockchain tracker BSCN reported that two newly identified institutional scale wallets withdrew a combined 6,765 BTC, valued at approximately $441.3 million, from Binance.

The transactions occurred within the same hour and appear to represent a coordinated transfer of Bitcoin from the exchange into private cold storage.

Such movements are generally viewed as a sign that large investors intend to hold their assets for the longer term rather than prepare them for immediate sale.#crypto#cryptonews https://coinsignals.net https://t.me/coinsignalpublic