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A packed week awaits on the United States economic calendar as financial markets assess the consequences of the recent US and Israeli strikes on Iran.

Volatility is expected as US stock futures reopen and respond to the weekend escalation in the Middle East. Crypto markets were relatively steady on Sunday but began to edge lower early Monday.

President Donald Trump addressed the situation on Sunday, outlining details of what he called Operation Epic Fury. He stated that the United States would respond to American casualties, warned that further losses could occur, and said military actions would continue until objectives are met. He also claimed that Iran’s military leadership had been eliminated.

Market commentators at The Kobeissi Letter argued that current conditions do not signal a global war scenario. They pointed to oil prices, which have already trimmed much of their initial spike, along with only modest declines in US stock futures and renewed strength in gold. Their message to investors was to remain calm as markets adjust.

Key Economic Events From March 2 Through March 6

This week features several important labor market reports, which are closely monitored by the Federal Reserve when setting monetary policy.

On Monday, the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index for February will offer insight into the health of the manufacturing sector. Employment related data begins on Wednesday with the February ADP Employment report. Thursday will bring the latest Initial Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, the February Jobs Report will be released, along with January Retail Sales data.

The upcoming jobs report follows stronger than expected employment gains in January, which suggested resilience in the labor market. Economists surveyed by Reuters anticipate that around 60,000 jobs were added in February.

Kristina Hooper, chief market strategist at Man Group, noted that while January’s report was encouraging, the broader labor market performance in 2025 has been relatively weak. The key question, she said, is how conditions will evolve in the coming months.

Crypto Market Outlook

Digital asset markets have turned lower again after a brief rebound on Sunday. Total market capitalization has slipped back to 2.35 trillion dollars, giving up weekend gains.

Bitcoin faced resistance near 67,000 dollars three times in the past 24 hours and has since pulled back to around 66,300 dollars during Monday morning trading in Asia. The asset has largely moved within a narrow range for the past three weeks.

Ethereum was unable to maintain levels above 2,000 dollars and has declined to roughly 1,950 dollars. Most major altcoins are also trading lower, with sharper declines seen in XRP, Solana, Cardano, Canton, and Stellar.

World Liberty Financial has introduced a proposal for a new governance model centered on staking through what it calls the WLFI Governance Staking System. The framework positions WLFI tokens as the core mechanism for community decision making, enabling holders to shape the ecosystem while encouraging sustained involvement.

Under the proposal, unstaked WLFI tokens will not carry voting rights. Participants who stake their tokens can earn rewards, gain Node related privileges, and potentially qualify for Super Node partnership opportunities.

Structured Governance and Incentives

According to the official announcement, the initiative seeks to shift value toward long term participants instead of intermediaries and market makers, who reportedly captured significant arbitrage profits during the USD1 expansion. It also aims to create competitive pressure within the stablecoin sector.

Holders of unlocked WLFI tokens must stake them to take part in governance. The minimum lockup period is 180 days. Voting power is calculated based on both the amount staked and the remaining duration of the lockup. Governance influence gradually adjusts as the lockup period shortens. To qualify for staking rewards, participants must vote at least twice during the lockup window. The targeted annual yield is approximately 2 percent, funded by the WLFI treasury.

The system establishes a Node tier for users who stake 10 million WLFI, valued at roughly 1 million dollars. Node participants gain access to over the counter USD1 conversions through licensed market makers, receive certain team building privileges, and earn rewards linked to USD1 conversion volume. WLFI plans to subsidize market makers to maintain one to one parity and redirect arbitrage gains to long term contributors.

A higher Super Node tier is available to those staking 50 million WLFI, or about 5 million dollars. Super Nodes receive all Node benefits, direct access to the WLFI team for partnership discussions, and possible eligibility for economic incentives tied to approved integrations. However, Super Node status does not automatically guarantee a partnership.

The rollout is expected to occur in three stages. The first phase will introduce governance staking for unlocked tokens along with rewards and USD1 incentives. The second phase will activate the Node tier, including know your customer onboarding and over the counter conversion access. The final phase will enable the Super Node tier, along with partnership channels and revenue sharing structures. Specific timelines will be announced after the governance vote concludes.

Pakistan Considers USD1 Integration

The proposal follows a recent memorandum of understanding between Pakistan and SC Financial Technologies, an affiliate of World Liberty Financial. The agreement focuses on exploring the potential use of the USD1 stablecoin and fostering technical collaboration on digital payment systems.

Under the arrangement, SC Financial Technologies will coordinate with Pakistan’s central bank to examine how USD1 could be incorporated into regulated digital payment frameworks and operate alongside the country’s emerging digital currency infrastructure.

Lighter stated that its upgraded liquidity pool framework successfully contained auto deleveraging losses within a preset limit during a major market event.

On February 26, the decentralized exchange Lighter announced that its revamped liquidity pool structure withstood a 50 million dollar ARC perpetual long squeeze attempt. Roughly 600 traders moved against a large long position, leading to an 8.2 million dollar loss for the whale involved. The incident marked the first significant stress test for Lighter’s newly introduced LLP Strategies, with liquidity provider losses capped at 75,000 dollars.

First Real Test for LLP Strategies

In a February 17 post on X, Lighter outlined updates to its LLP infrastructure. Liquidity was divided into distinct strategies tailored to different market segments, including real world assets. Risk management, liquidations, and auto deleveraging would now be handled at the strategy level instead of across the entire pool.

That structure faced its first major challenge on February 26. According to the platform, a trader had accumulated a sizable long position in ARC perpetual contracts over several days. Around 600 traders and market makers took the opposite side, driving open interest to 50 million dollars.

ARC perpetual trading was placed under Strategy 7, labeled as a higher risk strategy, with approximately 75,000 USDC allocated. This setup ensured that only that portion of liquidity could be affected in the event of auto deleveraging.

As ARC’s price declined around 6 p.m. Eastern Time on February 26, the large long position was initially liquidated through the order book for about 2 million dollars. Lighter indicated that the LLP was briefly in profit, but continued price weakness exhausted Strategy 7 and triggered another auto deleveraging event at 0.071123. Ultimately, the whale absorbed an 8.2 million dollar loss, LLP forfeited its capped 75,000 dollar allocation, and short position holders who maintained their trades ended up in profit.

ARC Price Volatility Intensifies

The unwinding left a clear mark on ARC’s price performance. Data from CoinGecko shows the token experienced a sharp overnight drop in the early hours of February 27, falling from approximately 0.031 dollars to 0.025 dollars before rebounding to 0.0348 dollars.

At the time of writing, ARC, the token powering the Ryzome agentic AI app store, was down more than 9 percent over 24 hours and nearly 59 percent over the past week. It has declined over 63 percent in the last two weeks and 42 percent in the past month. The token now trades about 95 percent below its January 2025 all time high of 0.62 dollars, with an annual decline close to 88 percent.

The extreme volatility aligns with comments from crypto analyst Simon Dedic, who observed that ARC had fallen roughly 80 percent overnight on trading volumes approaching 400 million dollars, nearly ten times its fully diluted valuation. He noted that prior to the decline, the token had significantly outperformed the broader market and suggested it may have been heavily manipulated.

These concerns mirror wider discussions about transparency and fairness in digital asset markets. Recently, Base co founder Jesse Pollak dismissed claims of behind the scenes price coordination, emphasizing that markets should remain free, open, and fair without intervention from project teams.

Ethereum’s performance has been even weaker, extending its negative streak to six straight months.

Bitcoin entered 2026 with brief optimism, but the early gains quickly disappeared. The asset fell sharply and touched new local lows near 60,000 dollars in early February.

Although it managed to recover part of those losses after hitting its lowest level in 15 months, bitcoin still closed February with a steep double digit drop. This marked the fifth consecutive month of declines.

February Ends Deep in the Red

The current downturn would have seemed unlikely in early October. At that time, bitcoin was trading above 126,000 dollars and setting fresh all time highs, with many investors expecting further gains during what is often called Uptober. Instead, the market experienced a severe reversal.

On October 10, the crypto market saw its largest single day liquidation event, with more than 19 billion dollars wiped out as prices plunged. Many analysts later suggested that this event caused structural damage to market dynamics.

Following that collapse, bitcoin began posting repeated losses and slipped back into five digit territory by year end. It finished 2025 in negative territory, making it the first year after a halving event to close lower.

January initially showed signs of recovery, but a strong rejection near 98,000 dollars triggered another sharp decline. The month ended with losses exceeding 10 percent.

In early February, another major selloff pushed bitcoin down to about 60,000 dollars, its lowest point since October 2024. While it rebounded to close the month between 65,000 and 66,000 dollars, the overall result was a 15 percent decline for February. This marked five straight months of losses, a streak not seen since 2018.

Ethereum Extends the Slump

According to data from Cryptorank, Ethereum’s performance has been even more concerning. The second largest cryptocurrency has recorded losses for six consecutive months and has posted gains in only three of the past 15 months.

January and February were particularly severe. Ethereum dropped 17.7 percent in January, followed by a further 19.6 percent decline in February. This represents its worst monthly run since 2018, when it endured seven straight months of losses.

At present, Ethereum is struggling to maintain levels above 2,000 dollars after falling below that threshold several times over the past month.

Global tensions are running high. From the Middle East to Ukraine, the possibility of wider conflict is no longer remote.

Following recent strikes by the United States and Israel against Iran, retaliation quickly followed, with both sides warning of further escalation. Against this uncertain backdrop, several cryptocurrencies stand out as assets worth monitoring as 2026 unfolds.

Bitcoin

Despite frequent claims that Bitcoin functions as a safe haven separate from traditional risk markets, its behavior over the past year suggests otherwise.

As the largest cryptocurrency, Bitcoin accounts for roughly 56 percent of the total digital asset market capitalization, making it a central indicator of overall industry sentiment. Historically, BTC has tended to fall sharply when geopolitical conflicts erupt and recover once tensions begin to ease. Similar patterns were observed during previous US actions involving Iran, and recent price movements appear consistent with that trend.

Bitcoin has also shown significantly higher volatility compared with traditional financial markets. Some analysts argue that current price action reflects conditions similar to a prolonged crypto downturn.

If geopolitical tensions in the Middle East subside, improved clarity could help restore investor confidence and support a price rebound. However, an extended conflict involving additional global powers such as Russia or China would likely increase uncertainty. The United States has stated that it seeks to avoid a drawn out regional war, but the trajectory remains unclear.

At present, Bitcoin trades near 67,000 dollars. It is down 2 percent on the week and roughly 47 percent below its all time high from five months ago, although it has gained 5 percent over the past day. While the broader trend remains downward, any meaningful diplomatic resolution could provide momentum for recovery.

Tokenized Gold

Gold has reasserted itself as a preferred store of value throughout 2025. Aside from a sharp pullback in early February 2026, the metal has largely trended upward, benefiting from investor demand during periods of geopolitical and economic stress.

With prices above 5,200 dollars per ounce, gold has more than doubled over the past year.

However, owning and transporting physical gold can be inconvenient and costly. As a result, some investors have turned to tokenized gold products that are backed by physical reserves. Two of the most prominent examples are PAX Gold and Tether Gold, which represent a significant share of the tokenized gold market.

These digital tokens trade on major centralized exchanges with substantial liquidity, allowing investors to gain exposure to gold quickly and with minimal friction. That convenience does require trust in the issuers to maintain adequate reserves for redemption. For those seeking short term exposure or speculative opportunities, tokenized gold can offer a flexible alternative to holding physical bullion.

Market interest reflects this demand, as the combined market capitalization of these products has risen sharply over the past year.

Privacy Focused Cryptocurrencies

Privacy oriented cryptocurrencies have also drawn attention during periods of heightened geopolitical strain. In 2025, assets such as Monero and Zcash experienced strong buying interest.

In times of intense conflict, sanctions, and expanded financial surveillance, privacy focused coins can see increased use. Their appeal often grows when individuals and institutions seek greater confidentiality in financial transactions.

Even after a significant market correction in January that reduced its capitalization by roughly 55 percent, Monero remains more than 56 percent higher than it was a year ago. Zcash has posted even stronger gains, rising more than 500 percent over the same period.

As geopolitical uncertainty continues into 2026, these three segments of the crypto market may remain closely watched by investors navigating an increasingly unstable global landscape.

JUP and HYPE led gains over the past day, each posting strong double digit advances.

Bitcoin experienced sharp price swings on Saturday following military strikes involving Iran and the ensuing retaliation, though it has since returned close to where it began.

Several altcoins suffered steep losses during the turmoil but have since rebounded alongside BTC. Ethereum is trading near 2,000 dollars, and XRP has regained fourth place by market capitalization from BNB.

Bitcoin Slides Then Rebounds

The previous trading week started on a weak note, with bitcoin falling from 68,000 dollars to slightly above 64,000 dollars amid fresh tariff developments. The decline continued on Tuesday, pushing the asset to a multi week low of 62,500 dollars. A strong recovery followed on Wednesday, when BTC climbed to 70,000 dollars for the first time in roughly eight days.

The rally proved short lived. Analysts had warned that the move might not hold, and bitcoin soon began to retreat. It slipped by several thousand dollars but stabilized around 68,000 dollars for the next few sessions. Volatility surged again on Saturday after the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran, prompting retaliatory actions across parts of the Middle East.

Bitcoin dropped rapidly from 67,000 dollars to 63,000 dollars within hours of the initial escalation. Later in the day, it rebounded above 68,000 dollars following reports that Iran’s Supreme Leader had been killed in the attacks. The recovery stalled at that level, and BTC is now trading below 67,000 dollars.

Its market capitalization has returned to approximately 1.335 trillion dollars, while its dominance over alternative coins remains just above 56 percent.

Altcoins Stage a Comeback

Most major altcoins have bounced back strongly. Ethereum has climbed 7.5 percent over the past 24 hours and is again approaching 2,000 dollars. BNB has risen to 622 dollars, though XRP has moved ahead in market capitalization rankings after gaining 8 percent to trade near 1.40 dollars.

Solana, Dogecoin, Cardano, and Chainlink have each advanced between 7 and 9 percent. HYPE has outperformed many larger assets with a 15 percent jump to 31 dollars. JUP, NEAR, and PUMP have also recorded double digit daily gains.

Overall, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization has added roughly 100 billion dollars in a single day and is nearing 2.4 trillion dollars.

Circle delivered strong financial results for the fourth quarter of 2025, driven by rapid growth in USDC circulation and transaction activity. For the full fiscal year 2025, the company generated 2.7 billion dollars in revenue, reflecting 64 percent growth as global adoption of USDC accelerated.

By the end of the year, USDC in circulation had climbed to 75.3 billion dollars, marking a 72 percent increase compared with the previous year. On chain transaction volume rose sharply, advancing 247 percent to reach 11.9 trillion dollars during the fourth quarter alone.

Revenue and Profitability Increase

For the quarter ending December 31, 2025, Circle reported total revenue and reserve income of 770 million dollars, representing a 77 percent rise from the same period in 2024. Net income from continuing operations reached 133 million dollars, an increase of 129 million dollars year over year. Adjusted EBITDA surged 412 percent to 167 million dollars.

Across fiscal year 2025, revenue and reserve income totaled 2.7 billion dollars, up 64 percent from 2024. Despite this growth, the company posted a net loss of 70 million dollars for the year, compared with net income of 157 million dollars in fiscal year 2024. The loss was largely attributed to 424 million dollars in stock based compensation linked to vesting conditions triggered by the company’s initial public offering.

Commenting on the results, Circle co founder and chief executive officer Jeremy Allaire stated that USDC adoption continued to expand worldwide as enterprises, developers, and public institutions integrated digital dollars into payments, treasury management, and on chain financial operations. He also highlighted strong platform engagement, progress toward the Arc mainnet launch, continued expansion in Circle Payments Network transaction volume, and increasing momentum for EURC and USYC.

Infrastructure and Payments Expansion

On the infrastructure front, Circle launched the public testnet for Arc with participation from more than 100 organizations spanning banking, capital markets, digital assets, payments, and technology.

As of February 20, 2026, the testnet had achieved nearly full uptime, transaction finality in about half a second, and a trailing 30 day daily average of 2.3 million transactions. Total transactions have exceeded 166 million since launch, and the company confirmed that Arc remains on schedule for a mainnet release later this year.

Circle’s Payments Network has grown to include 55 enrolled financial institutions, with 74 additional entities undergoing eligibility review. The network reported 5.7 billion dollars in annualized transaction volume based on recent 30 day activity. The company also pointed to partnerships with Visa, Intuit, the Government of Bermuda, and Polymarket, and announced that it has received conditional approval from the US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to establish a national trust bank.

XRP experienced sharp price swings on Saturday, though the turbulence was unrelated to exchange traded funds.

While spot XRP ETFs have managed to end their stretch of zero inflow days, overall investor interest remains well below the strong levels seen shortly after launch. Meanwhile, XRP continues its battle with BNB for the fourth position in the cryptocurrency market capitalization rankings and is hovering just below an important resistance level.

XRP ETF Inflows Remain Subdued

Recent weeks have highlighted declining activity surrounding XRP focused exchange traded funds. During the trading week that ended on February 13, net inflows totaled less than 8 million dollars, followed by under 2 million dollars the next week. The funds also recorded three consecutive sessions without any inflows, a trend that lasted through February 23.

Investor participation improved slightly over the following four trading days, although the gains were modest. Net inflows reached 3.04 million dollars on Tuesday, 3.09 million dollars on Wednesday, 1.22 million dollars on Thursday, and 2.21 million dollars on Friday. In total, the week closed with 9.55 million dollars in new capital.

These figures pale in comparison to the enthusiasm seen at launch. After the first XRP centered ETF began trading in mid November, demand surged for that product and four additional offerings that soon followed. Within a month of Canary Capital introducing XRPC, cumulative net inflows climbed to 1 billion dollars.

Since that early surge, momentum has cooled. Total net inflows now stand at 1.24 billion dollars, indicating that only about 240 million dollars has been added over the past two months.

XRP Competes With BNB for Market Position

Saturday brought significant volatility to the broader crypto market following military strikes against Iran and subsequent retaliation. XRP dropped from 1.43 dollars to 1.27 dollars before rebounding to its earlier level after reports emerged that Iran’s Supreme Leader had been killed during the attacks.

Market analyst CryptoWZRD observed that XRP formed a dragonfly doji candle and held above the 1.30 dollar daily support level. According to their assessment, the asset could extend its gains if it secures a weekly close above 1.3820 dollars. At the time of writing, XRP is trading just below that threshold. It has also reclaimed the fourth spot by market capitalization from BNB after briefly surrendering it during Saturday’s volatility.

Another major Ponzi operation has surfaced, and its alleged architect could face up to 30 years in prison.

The United States Department of Justice has taken into custody Christopher Alexander Delgado, a 34 year old executive of the supposed venture capital firm Goliath Ventures, for allegedly orchestrating a cryptocurrency Ponzi scheme that defrauded investors of about 328 million dollars.

According to a statement from the US Attorney’s Office for the Middle District of Florida, Delgado served as president and chief executive officer of Goliath Ventures, which previously operated under the name Gen Z Venture Firm.

Charges of Wire Fraud and Money Laundering

Federal prosecutors have charged Delgado with wire fraud and money laundering. Authorities allege that he operated the scheme from January 2023 through January 2026, telling investors their funds would be placed in cryptocurrency liquidity pools.

He reportedly promised consistent monthly returns while encouraging significant investments. Victims were recruited through charitable sponsorships, upscale events, professional marketing campaigns, and personal referrals. To maintain credibility, Delgado allegedly issued periodic payments to some investors, presenting them as legitimate profits.

Despite claims that funds were being invested in crypto protocols, prosecutors say Goliath Ventures functioned as a traditional Ponzi structure. Money from new investors was used to pay earlier participants, allowing Delgado to collect more than 328 million dollars. In addition to returning funds to those who requested withdrawals, the company allegedly spent investor money on extravagant business events, holiday celebrations, and luxury travel.

Investigators also allege that Delgado used between 1.15 million and 8.5 million dollars of investor funds to purchase four residential properties.

Ongoing Investigation and Potential Penalties

Delgado is awaiting trial, and federal authorities have encouraged alleged victims of Goliath Ventures to come forward under the Crime Victims Rights Act.

The investigation remains active, with Homeland Security Investigations and the Internal Revenue Service Criminal Investigation continuing their work. If convicted on all counts, Delgado could receive a maximum sentence of 30 years in federal prison.

He is not the only executive recently convicted in a cryptocurrency related Ponzi case. A US court recently sentenced Ramil Ventura Palafox, chief executive of Praetorian Group International, to 20 years in prison for defrauding at least 90,000 investors of 200 million dollars through a Bitcoin based scheme. Prosecutors said the 61 year old falsely claimed his company was engaged in Bitcoin trading while misappropriating investor funds.

After reviewing options such as fundraising and potential acquisitions, the teams determined that there was no realistic path to recovery after the security breach.

Solana based DeFi aggregator Step Finance, together with affiliated projects SolanaFloor and Remora Markets, has announced the immediate shutdown of all operations. The decision comes in the wake of a major security incident earlier this year.

From Hack to Closure

In a statement posted on X, the teams explained that they had examined several possible paths forward, including raising new capital and engaging in acquisition talks. Ultimately, none of these efforts produced a sustainable solution following the hack in late January.

Roughly 30 million dollars in assets were drained from Step Finance wallets on the Solana network. Later disclosures revealed that the breach was linked to compromised devices belonging to members of the executive team.

Unauthorized access to those devices likely exposed private keys or enabled malware that disrupted internal transaction approval procedures. This allowed attackers to create and authorize fraudulent on chain transactions. After gaining control, they unstaked about 261,854 SOL and moved the funds out of wallets controlled by the project. The market reacted swiftly, with the STEP token losing more than 80 percent of its value.

Once the exploit was detected, the team suspended certain platform functions to prevent additional losses. They later confirmed that around 4.7 million dollars in Remora related assets and other holdings had been recovered. As part of the wind down process, Step Finance is developing a buyback plan for STEP token holders based on a snapshot taken before the incident. Meanwhile, Remora Markets is preparing a redemption process for rToken holders.

A Surge in Crypto Hacks

The Step Finance breach ranks among the most costly DeFi incidents of January 2026, reflecting a broader increase in crypto related losses over the past year. Data from blockchain security firm PeckShield shows that scams and hacks accounted for more than 4.04 billion dollars in losses during 2025, marking an increase of nearly 34 percent compared with 2024.

Of that amount, 2.67 billion dollars resulted from hacks, while 1.37 billion dollars stemmed from scams. Scam related losses alone climbed roughly 64 percent year over year.

PeckShield also observed a shift away from purely technical exploits toward more targeted social engineering attacks, frequently aimed at centralized organizations and high value individuals. This trend contributed to larger losses per incident. More than 200 hacking cases were recorded throughout the year, not including scams.

February proved to be the most expensive month, largely due to a 1.51 billion dollar breach at Bybit.