coinsignals

Crypto market analysts are growing increasingly pessimistic as technical indicators suggest Bitcoin may face further declines before any solid recovery takes place.

A rising number of signals associated with peak bear markets are appearing on Bitcoin charts, leading analysts to believe that while the worst may be approaching, the market has not fully stabilized yet.

Bitcoin has closed below its 100 week moving average for three consecutive weeks and has remained under this long term indicator for 13 days, according to Coin Bureau chief executive Nic Puckrin. Historically, Bitcoin has stayed below this level for an average of 267 days, with the shortest duration being 34 days during the March 2020 Covid market crash. Puckrin noted that while a short term rebound is possible, prolonged weakness below this level reduces the likelihood of a quick recovery.

Accumulation May Follow Further Declines

MN Fund founder Michaël van de Poppe pointed out that the proportion of Bitcoin holders sitting at a loss continues to increase, a pattern typically seen during major bear markets such as those in 2015, 2018, and 2022. He suggested that this phase could present long term accumulation opportunities.

CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju echoed the cautious outlook, stating that Bitcoin currently lacks the conditions needed for strong upward momentum. He explained that selling pressure remains too intense and that institutional or treasury driven demand is unlikely to have an impact until market conditions improve.

On chain data firm Glasnode reported that unrealized losses around the $70,000 level account for roughly 16 percent of Bitcoin’s total market capitalization, a structure similar to market conditions observed in early May 2022.

Market analyst Sykodelic noted that trading volume spiked significantly during the recent drop toward $60,000, marking one of the largest volume events since the 2022 bottom. He added that similar volume surges in the past have often coincided with major price turning points, raising the possibility that $60,000 could represent a local bottom.

Bitcoin Slips Below $70K Again

Bitcoin fell below $70,000 twice on Monday and was trading near $69,000 during Asian market hours on Tuesday. The price has been consolidating around this range after rebounding from a sharp decline to $60,000 on Friday. Despite the bounce, Bitcoin remains 44 percent below its all time high and continues to trade firmly within bear market territory, with downside pressure still dominating.

Ethereum co founder Vitalik Buterin has questioned the credibility of many popular DeFi strategies, arguing that much of today’s decentralized finance is centralized in practice. He specifically criticized USDC yield farming, saying it fails to uphold the core values of true DeFi.

Buterin’s comments followed a post by crypto analyst C node, who argued that modern DeFi has shifted away from building decentralized infrastructure and now focuses largely on speculation. According to C node, DeFi offers little value unless users hold long crypto positions and need access to financial services while maintaining self custody.

Agreeing with this view, Buterin stated that depositing stablecoins like USDC into lending platforms such as Aave should not be considered genuine DeFi. He emphasized that because USDC remains under the control of Circle, these strategies are inherently centralized even if the protocols themselves operate on decentralized networks.

Buterin outlined two approaches for defining what qualifies as real DeFi. The first, which he referred to as an easier model, focuses on ETH backed algorithmic stablecoins. In this setup, users can transfer counterparty risk to market makers through collateralized debt positions, where crypto assets are locked in order to mint stablecoins.

He explained that even if most liquidity comes from CDP holders with offsetting positions, the ability to shift counterparty risk remains a critical feature of decentralized finance.

The second and more complex model allows stablecoins to be backed by real world assets, but only under strict conditions. Buterin said that such systems must be heavily overcollateralized and diversified enough to withstand the failure of any single asset. The collateral ratio must exceed the largest share of any individual backing asset, ensuring the system remains solvent and resilient.

According to Buterin, this structure spreads risk rather than concentrating it within centralized entities. He added that the long term objective should be moving away from reliance on the US dollar as the primary unit of account and toward a more diversified index.

Community Reaction

Many members of the crypto community on X supported Buterin’s stance. Some praised ETH backed algorithmic stablecoins for offering meaningful risk reduction, while others noted that diversification of real world assets distributes risk instead of simply shifting it. One user commented that true DeFi requires genuine innovation in risk management rather than passive USDC yield strategies.

However, not everyone agreed fully. Some users raised concerns that algorithmic stablecoins have not sufficiently evolved to address past failures, comparing them to money market funds that face similar stability risks. Others warned that even diversified real world asset backing could fail during extreme market events or if assets become highly correlated.

Two crypto investors lost a combined $62 million after mistakenly copying incorrect wallet addresses, highlighting the growing risks of human error and phishing attacks in the crypto space.

In January, one user lost $12.25 million after sending funds to the wrong wallet address. A similar incident occurred in December, when another user mistakenly transferred $50 million. According to Web3 security firm Scam Sniffer, these two errors alone resulted in $62 million in losses.

Rise in Crypto Scams

Signature phishing attacks also increased sharply in January. Scam Sniffer reported that $6.27 million was stolen from 4,741 victims, representing a 207 percent jump compared to December. Some of the largest losses included $3.02 million stolen from SLVon and XAUt through permit and increaseAllowance approvals, along with $1.08 million taken from aEthLBTC using similar methods.

Notably, just two wallets were responsible for 65 percent of all phishing related losses during this period.

Address poisoning remains a common tactic used by scammers. In this method, attackers send small transactions from wallet addresses that closely resemble legitimate ones, hoping victims will copy the fake address from their transaction history. When funds are later sent, they go directly to the attacker. Signature phishing compounds the danger by deceiving users into approving malicious permissions, allowing scammers to move funds at a later time. These scams rely heavily on social engineering and simple mistakes, making even seasoned crypto users vulnerable.

In November last year, another crypto holder lost more than $3 million worth of PYTH tokens after accidentally transferring them to a scammer’s wallet. Blockchain analysts at Lookonchain explained that the attacker created a wallet address that matched the first four characters of the legitimate address and sent a small SOL transaction to appear authentic. The victim later transferred 7 million PYTH tokens without fully verifying the address, resulting in a loss valued at approximately $3.08 million at the time.

Coordinated Attacks Target Multisig Wallets

As these scams become more frequent, the non custodial wallet provider Safe, previously known as Gnosis Safe, warned users about a large scale address poisoning and social engineering campaign targeting multisig wallets. The company revealed that attackers created thousands of fake Safe addresses designed to deceive users into sending funds to incorrect destinations. Safe clarified that the incident was not caused by a protocol exploit, infrastructure failure, or smart contract vulnerability.

The platform identified around 5,000 malicious addresses, which have since been flagged and removed from the Safe Wallet interface to help prevent accidental transfers.

Bitcoin miners have transferred more than 90,000 BTC to Binance since the start of February, marking the highest level of miner exchange inflows seen since 2024, according to on-chain data from Arab Chain. The spike comes amid heightened market volatility and investor uncertainty, creating short-term selling pressure even as large holders moved in the opposite direction.

Rising Miner Activity Signals Potential Sell Pressure

Arab Chain’s data shows that miner deposits accelerated immediately after February began, with a single day recording over 24,000 BTC sent to Binance. Such activity typically reflects miners selling part of their holdings to cover operating costs or secure profits during volatile periods, making these inflows a key indicator of near-term supply.

The timing coincided with Bitcoin’s sharp correction last week, which briefly pushed prices below $60,000 for the first time since October 2024, extending the drawdown to more than 50% from its last all-time high. During this period, nearly 241,000 BTC were moved to exchanges, with Binance seeing particularly heavy inflows from short-term holders. Analyst Darkfost described this activity as consistent with capitulation, especially among investors reacting to rapid losses.

Retail investors also changed behavior during the sell-off. Holders with less than one Bitcoin, often called “shrimps,” increased their daily transfers to Binance, reaching more than 1,000 BTC on February 5, well above their monthly average of approximately 365 BTC. This spike in activity eased once prices recovered above $70,000, suggesting retail selling pressure diminished as the market stabilized.

Whales Accumulate During Price Recovery

While miners and smaller holders moved coins to exchanges, large holders took the opposite approach. Analyst CW8900 reported on February 8 that whales added nearly 67,000 BTC to long-term accumulation addresses in a single day, the largest inflow of this cycle.

Since then, Bitcoin has traded just above $70,000 according to CoinGecko, rising roughly 1% on the day but still down nearly 8% over the past week and more than 22% in the last 30 days. The recent rebound follows a steep decline from the mid-$80,000 range, which erased post-election gains and pushed major altcoins lower by double digits.

Market sentiment remains fragile. The Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index fell to its lowest reading since 2019, even after prices bounced from recent lows. Elevated miner inflows suggest continued selling pressure, while whale accumulation and reduced retail activity indicate that supply and demand are becoming more balanced, with Bitcoin currently attempting to hold above $70,000.

Robert Kiyosaki, the author of Rich Dad Poor Dad, has once again highlighted Bitcoin as a preferred investment over gold. In a recent tweet, he explained that while owning gold, Bitcoin, and silver can help diversify a portfolio, if he had to choose only one asset, he would pick Bitcoin. His reasoning comes down to the fundamental differences between the two assets.

Kiyosaki pointed out that gold is theoretically unlimited. As its price rises, miners are encouraged to extract more, which increases the total supply over time. Bitcoin, in contrast, is deliberately limited to a maximum of 21 million coins. Currently, about 19.98 million Bitcoin have been mined, leaving fewer than two million coins yet to be released. Once the limit is reached, no additional coins can be created. Kiyosaki praised this scarcity as a clever mechanism that could drive the long-term value of Bitcoin.

He also shared that he is glad he bought his Bitcoin early, while continuing to mine gold and drill for oil. This shows that while he sees Bitcoin as extremely valuable due to its finite supply, he still values traditional assets as part of a diversified strategy.

However, Kiyosaki has made some contradictory statements regarding his own Bitcoin holdings. He previously said he bought Bitcoin as its price rose above $105,000 in mid-2025 but also admitted that he stopped buying at $6,000, a price last seen in mid-2020 after the COVID-19 market crash.

He has also shared conflicting views about selling. In November 2025, he tweeted that he would not sell Bitcoin and would continue buying, yet a week later he revealed he sold the coins he bought at $6,000 for $2.25 million to invest in surgery centers and a billboard business for cash flow.

These contradictions raise questions about which Bitcoin holdings he refers to in his latest tweet. Nevertheless, Kiyosaki continues to emphasize that Bitcoin’s fixed supply makes it a stronger long-term store of value and, in his view, a better investment than gold.

Ethereum (ETH) has experienced a sharp increase in on-chain token transfers this week as its price declined from around $3,000 to near $2,000, with activity reaching levels not seen since August 2025, according to data from analyst CryptoOnchain. The surge in transfers reflects heavy sell side pressure and rapid repositioning by investors, even as some metrics suggest that overall supply on exchanges is tightening.

CryptoOnchain reported that the 14-day simple moving average of Ethereum tokens transferred jumped from roughly 1.6 million on January 29 to about 2.75 million by February 7, marking the highest activity level since last August. Historically, such a divergence falling prices paired with rising on chain activity is often associated with panic driven behavior, as holders rush to move their assets in response to sharp drawdowns. Much of this movement appears to be tied to rotations into stablecoins, transfers to exchanges for liquidation, and forced sales in decentralized finance protocols as collateral values dropped.

The price pressure is not limited to smaller investors. Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin sold more than 6,100 ETH over several days last week, and other large holders have reduced exposure to repay loans or rebalance positions. These actions have amplified short-term selling pressure during the recent correction. The spike in ERC-20 token transfers during this period indicates that many investors are seeking to exit positions, converting volatile holdings into stablecoins or moving assets onto exchanges for liquidation.

The timing of this activity aligns with broader market declines, including Bitcoin’s drop from above $80,000 to near $60,000 before recovering to around $72,000, while Ethereum struggled to maintain support near the $2,000 level. This has created a tense market environment, with high volatility fueling rapid asset movements.

At the same time, several indicators point to shrinking ETH availability on exchanges. CoinNiel reports that the amount of Ethereum held on trading platforms has dropped to levels not seen since mid-2016. Arab Chain analysts noted that Binance’s ETH reserves have fallen to approximately 3.7 million coins, the lowest since 2024. This decline in exchange balances suggests that while short-term selling is intense, the number of coins immediately available for spot trading is decreasing, which could mitigate further large-scale liquidations.

Currently, Ethereum trades around $2,040, down roughly 3% over the past 24 hours and nearly 11% over the past week. The token briefly dipped below $1,900 on February 5 before rebounding slightly. Analysts note that similar spikes in on-chain transfer activity during past corrections often appear near local lows, when forced selling starts to ease.

Overall, Ethereum’s market is caught between ongoing volatility and a shrinking exchange supply. On-chain data highlights fear-driven transfers, as investors react to rapid price movements, while longer-term holders continue to withdraw coins from trading platforms, potentially setting the stage for stabilization once the immediate panic subsides.

Investors withdrew $187 million from digital asset products last week, though the pace of outflows has slowed significantly, suggesting that panic selling may be subsiding. CoinShares noted that this deceleration could indicate the market is stabilizing and that a potential low point in crypto prices might be forming. Total assets under management fell to $129.8 billion, the lowest level since the announcement of US tariffs in March 2025, which had coincided with a local low in asset prices. Trading activity surged, driving exchange-traded product volumes to a record $63.1 billion, surpassing the previous high of $56.4 billion recorded in October of the previous year, highlighting strong investor interest and momentum.

Bitcoin continued to face outflows, losing $264 million, along with $11.6 million moving out of short positions. In contrast, altcoins attracted new capital, with XRP leading the way with $63.1 million last week, boosting its year-to-date inflows to $109 million. Solana added $8.2 million, Ethereum $5.3 million, and Chainlink and Litecoin saw more modest gains of $1.5 million and $1 million, respectively. Multi-asset products also recorded inflows of $9.3 million over the past week.

Geographically, outflows were concentrated in the US at $214 million, Sweden at $135 million, and Australia at $1.2 million. Meanwhile, other regions posted meaningful inflows, including Germany with $87.1 million, Switzerland $30.1 million, Canada $21.4 million, Brazil $16.7 million, and Hong Kong $6.8 million, reflecting a mixed global picture.

Macro and ETF trends continue to shape the outlook. Bitcoin slipped to $69,000 on Sunday and has hovered near that level into Monday, yet analysts remain optimistic about its long-term trajectory. Bitget CMO Ignacio Aguirre Franco suggested that BTC could reach $150,000 to $180,000 this year if ETF flows stabilize and macro conditions improve. He also highlighted Ethereum’s strong outlook, supported by Layer 2 development, growing DeFi activity, and increased traditional finance participation, with potential price targets of $5,000 to $6,000.

Franco added that regulatory clarity, such as the recent Clarity Bill and ongoing market-structure legislation, will benefit crypto markets by reducing uncertainty and making these assets more attractive to institutional investors and traditional funds. As regulatory frameworks align globally, institutional capital will have easier entry points, strengthening market stability, fostering innovation, and supporting long-term growth across the crypto sector.

Strategy has made another Bitcoin purchase, drawing attention due to the timing as the asset continues to trade well below the company’s average cost. Michael Saylor announced that the firm spent about 90 million dollars to acquire 1,142 BTC, increasing its total holdings to 714,644 Bitcoin.

The company has now invested roughly 54.35 billion dollars in Bitcoin at an average purchase price of 76,056 dollars per coin. With Bitcoin trading below 70,000 dollars at the time of the announcement, Strategy’s holdings remain in unrealized loss territory.

Based on recent price action, the purchase appears to have been executed earlier in the week when Bitcoin was trading near 78,800 dollars. Shortly afterward, the asset saw a sharp decline and has not returned to those levels since, raising questions about the effectiveness of the timing despite the firm’s long term accumulation strategy.

The move sparked debate within the crypto community, with some commentators criticizing the decision to buy at higher prices during a period of market weakness. Meanwhile, Strategy’s stock had a strong finish last week, jumping more than 26 percent to 135 dollars. However, MSTR shares slipped nearly 4 percent in pre market trading and remain down about 14 percent over the past month, even after a late week rebound.

Bitcoin failed to hold its recent move higher after briefly touching 72,000 dollars on Sunday and has since pulled back by more than 2,000 dollars. The broader market has weakened alongside BTC, with most large cap altcoins trading lower after modest weekend gains. WLFI and Monero are among the few assets resisting the downturn.

Bitcoin Loses Momentum Again

Bitcoin has seen sharp swings over the past few weeks. At the end of January, it fell from 84,000 dollars to below 76,000 after already retreating from a local high near 90,000. A short lived rebound carried the price to 79,000, but selling pressure soon returned. The decline accelerated late last week, sending BTC down to 60,000 dollars, its lowest level since before the US presidential election in November 2024.

Following the steep drop, Bitcoin rebounded strongly, climbing back to 72,000 dollars on Friday and Saturday. That level proved to be strong resistance, and after another failed attempt on Sunday, the price slid to around 68,000 before settling below 70,000. Bitcoin’s market capitalization now stands near 1.39 trillion dollars, while its dominance remains just above 57 percent.

Altcoins Mostly in the Red

Most major altcoins are under pressure. Ethereum is down about 3 percent and is hovering near 2,030 dollars, close to slipping below the 2,000 mark again. XRP has fallen by a similar amount to around 1.40 dollars, while Binance Coin has dropped to roughly 623 dollars. Solana and Dogecoin are both down around 4 percent, with other tokens posting even steeper losses.

WLFI has been a notable outlier, surging about 8 percent to nearly 0.11 dollars. SKY, LEO, and Monero are also slightly higher, while JUP, ONDO, and ARB have recorded the largest daily declines of up to 8 percent. Overall, the total crypto market capitalization has fallen by roughly 70 billion dollars over the past day to just under 2.43 trillion dollars.

Japan’s recent election outcome has delivered a clear win for Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and is already influencing global market dynamics. The ruling bloc secured a two thirds majority in the Lower House on February 8, a result that boosted Japanese equities while placing short term pressure on Bitcoin as capital shifted and liquidity tightened.

Markets reacted quickly, pushing Japanese stocks to record highs as investors priced in stronger fiscal stimulus and a more flexible stance on yen weakness. The Nikkei extended gains, reflecting optimism around reflation and domestic growth. While equities benefited, analysts noted that the outcome was less favorable for Bitcoin in the near term.

Research groups such as XWIN Research described the result as a short term headwind for BTC, pointing to changes in global capital flows and tighter liquidity conditions. Analysts observed that Japanese Government Bonds, long ignored due to ultra low yields, are drawing renewed interest as fiscal expansion raises inflation expectations. This reallocation has coincided with a pullback in US equities, with major indexes posting notable losses over the past week.

A stronger dollar, driven by yen weakness and ongoing interest rate gaps between the US and Japan, has further tightened financial conditions. In such risk off environments, Bitcoin has tended to track US equities, allowing equity driven selling pressure to spill over into crypto markets.

Despite the current weakness, the longer term outlook may be more constructive. Bitcoin is trading below key technical levels and sentiment indicators have fallen sharply, reflecting bear market conditions. However, with a commanding parliamentary majority, Takaichi’s government has greater flexibility to pursue policy reforms. Officials have previously positioned Web3 as a strategic priority, raising expectations that discussions around crypto tax changes and stablecoin regulation could resume. Analysts therefore see Japan’s political shift as a near term drag but a potential long term positive for institutional crypto adoption.