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A shorter but eventful week is ahead on the US economic calendar as crypto markets give back their recent gains. Attention is focused on the upcoming PCE inflation report, following last week’s CPI data, as well as the Federal Reserve meeting minutes due on Wednesday.

January CPI came in slightly below expectations, with headline inflation at 2.38 percent year over year and core CPI at 2.5 percent, the lowest level since early 2021. This initially lifted both stock and crypto markets on Friday, though crypto gains faded over the weekend. Analysts at The Kobeissi Letter noted that geopolitical tensions and broader macroeconomic uncertainty remain elevated, warning of potential volatility in the days ahead.

Key Economic Events This Week

US markets are closed Monday for the Presidents Day holiday. On Tuesday, investors will review the ADP employment update along with January retail sales data. Wednesday brings additional consumer spending insights through the delayed December durable goods orders report, in addition to the release of the latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes. Around ten central bank speakers are also scheduled to appear, offering further clues about the direction of monetary policy.

On Thursday, markets will receive an early estimate of fourth quarter GDP. However, the most closely watched release will be the December Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation report. Following the January CPI figures, Goldman Sachs reportedly raised its PCE forecast, estimating that the core PCE price index increased by 0.40 percent in January. Higher prices for consumer electronics and information technology, which carry more weight in PCE calculations than in CPI, contributed to the upward revision. Increased demand tied to artificial intelligence infrastructure has also driven up the cost of computer components due to global RAM and storage shortages.

According to The Street, current data provides little justification for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at its March meeting. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 90 percent probability that rates will remain unchanged.

Crypto Market Outlook

Crypto markets have erased last week’s late rally, with total market capitalization falling 2.5 percent over the past 24 hours to approximately 2.41 trillion dollars. Bitcoin briefly moved above 70,000 dollars but slipped back to around 68,300 dollars during early Asian trading on Monday, continuing to trade within a narrow range over the past ten days.

Ether has declined sharply, dropping about 5 percent from near 2,100 dollars to around 1,950 dollars, while many altcoins continue to trend lower.

As global scrutiny intensifies around exploitation networks following renewed attention on documents connected to Jeffrey Epstein, new findings from Chainalysis show a sharp rise in cryptocurrency activity tied to suspected human trafficking services in 2025. Transaction volumes climbed 85 percent compared to the previous year, reaching hundreds of millions of dollars worldwide. The report emphasized that while blockchain data can measure financial flows, the real harm is suffered by victims.

The surge has coincided with the growth of scam compounds in Southeast Asia, online gambling operations, and Chinese language money laundering networks that often coordinate openly on Telegram. These groups form interconnected ecosystems that move funds globally. Unlike cash systems, blockchain transactions leave traceable records, giving investigators tools to identify and disrupt illicit networks.

Chainalysis identified four main categories of suspected crypto enabled trafficking activity: Telegram based international escort services believed to involve trafficking, labor placement agents linked to forced labor in scam compounds, prostitution networks, and vendors distributing child sexual abuse material.

Stablecoins dominate payments for escort and prostitution services due to price stability and ease of conversion, while vendors of abuse material have historically relied on Bitcoin, though usage is shifting toward alternative networks and privacy tools. Nearly half of transfers linked to international escort services exceed 10,000 dollars, suggesting organized large scale operations. Prostitution networks typically record transactions between 1,000 and 10,000 dollars, often reflecting standardized pricing structures.

Child exploitation material networks show a different pattern, with about half of transactions under 100 dollars and increasing adoption of subscription models that generate recurring revenue. Investigators also observed rising use of privacy focused cryptocurrencies and instant exchanges to obscure funds. One major site identified in July 2025 used more than 5,800 crypto addresses and generated over 530,000 dollars since 2022.

The report added that many of these operations rely on United States based infrastructure to appear legitimate and scale their services, while operators themselves often remain overseas to reduce personal risk.

The US Department of Justice announced that Ramil Ventura Palafox, chief executive of Praetorian Group International, has been sentenced to 20 years in prison for running a global Bitcoin investment fraud that raised about 200 million dollars from more than 90,000 investors.

Court filings state that Palafox promoted PGI as a Bitcoin trading company combined with a multi level marketing opportunity. He promised daily returns between 0.5 percent and 3 percent. In reality, the company was not generating such profits. Investor payouts were funded with deposits from new participants or recycled from existing victims.

Between December 2019 and October 2021, investors contributed more than 201 million dollars, including 30.3 million dollars in cash and over 8,000 BTC valued at roughly 171.5 million dollars at the time. Losses exceeded 62 million dollars. An online portal displayed fabricated gains to convince users their investments were secure.

Prosecutors revealed that Palafox spent millions on luxury vehicles, high end hotels, designer goods, and multiple homes in Las Vegas and Los Angeles. Authorities say victims may qualify for restitution. The SEC previously filed civil charges, and PGI’s UK branch was shut down by the High Court in 2022.

Three months after the launch of the first US spot XRP ETF, the strong early momentum that excited the XRP community appears to be slowing. The initial trading sessions were impressive, and several additional funds quickly joined the market. However, recent data suggests investor demand is no longer as strong as it was in the early weeks.

Canary Capital’s XRPC remains the leader, holding more than $410 million in cumulative net inflows since its November 13 debut, which marked the highest first day trading volume for an ETF launch in 2025. Bitwise follows with $360 million in inflows, while Franklin Templeton’s XRPZ stands at $328 million. Collectively, the funds surpassed $1 billion in total net inflows after more than a month without a single day of withdrawals. That streak ended in early January, followed by several additional outflow days, including a notable decline toward the end of the month.

Although cumulative inflows remain above $1.20 billion and most full trading weeks have still closed in positive territory, last week reflected softer interest. Inflows were modest on Monday, Tuesday, and Friday, Thursday recorded net withdrawals, and Wednesday saw no activity at all. While the week finished slightly positive overall, the daily breakdown clearly indicates declining momentum.

At the same time, XRP’s price has experienced sharp volatility. After dropping to $1.11 last week, the token rebounded to $1.55, consolidated around $1.40, and then surged to just above $1.65 before pulling back again to near $1.55. Despite the fluctuations, XRP’s market capitalization remains above $90 billion, keeping it ahead of BNB in the competition for fourth place among cryptocurrencies by market value.

Ripple Labs released a major February update for the XRP Ledger (XRPL), signaling a shift in the ecosystem and expanding XRP’s role beyond fast, low-fee cross-border payments into decentralized finance (DeFi). Following the announcement, XRP traded around $1.35 on Friday, February 13, before surging above $1.65 by Sunday, showing strong short-term market interest.

The update introduced “Institutional DeFi on XRPL,” designed to support enterprise-grade users and large financial firms. Key features include On-Demand Liquidity (ODL) for instant transfers, Token Escrow and Batch Transactions for automated workflows, and Credentials to help institutions stay compliant with KYC and AML regulations. Ripple also introduced Multi-Purpose Tokens (MPTs), which allow complex financial instruments like bonds and funds to run without custom contracts.

For developers, Ripple added tools like Livenet Explorer for real-time on-chain monitoring and XRPL Devnet Tools for testing escrow contracts, lending protocols, and Dapps before deployment. Permissioned domains also allow controlled environments on the open blockchain, unlocking balance sheets and optimizing collateral and capital velocity through tokenized smart contracts.

While the update positions XRPL as a next-generation financial infrastructure with XRP at its core, the impact on prices is limited in the short term. Despite outperforming other top cryptocurrencies after the news, overall market sentiment remains negative, with the Fear and Greed Index recently hitting Extreme Fear, the lowest in eight years. This suggests that while the update strengthens XRP’s long-term utility, it may not trigger a major immediate price surge.

Overall, the February update enhances XRP’s appeal to institutional users and developers, laying the foundation for broader adoption even as market conditions remain challenging.

Pi Network’s PI has surged past $0.20 today, emerging as the top performer in the crypto market, while Bitcoin continued its impressive weekend rally, reclaiming $70,000. The momentum in altcoins has been notable, with XRP, DOGE, and PEPE also posting strong double-digit gains.

Bitcoin’s dramatic turnaround started after February 6, when it hit a low of $60,000 following a rapid $30,000 drop in just 10 days. Bulls prevented further decline, pushing BTC to $72,000, although that level proved too strong. The cryptocurrency then traded sideways between $68,000 and $72,000 for several days. A mid-week rejection saw it dip to $66,000 on Friday, but a strong recovery followed, taking BTC to $69,000 on Saturday and $70,800 on Sunday. It faces some resistance around this level but continues to hold above $70,000. Its market capitalization now stands at $1.41 trillion, with dominance over altcoins slightly reduced to 56.5%.

Altcoins have seen varied performance. ETH, BNB, and TRX have remained relatively flat on daily scales, while XRP and DOGE surged, with DOGE climbing 18% possibly aided by announcements from Elon Musk and XRP reclaiming the $1.60 resistance after an 11% increase. PEPE jumped 25%, while larger-cap altcoins ADA, ZEC, and XLM have also gained. Pi Network’s PI led the market, surging over 35% at its peak before settling around 20% higher.

The total cryptocurrency market capitalization added roughly $40 billion in a single day, bringing it close to $2.5 trillion, signaling strong weekend momentum and renewed investor optimism across both Bitcoin and select altcoins.

Paxful has been ordered to pay a $4 million criminal fine after pleading guilty to multiple federal offenses, the U.S. Department of Justice confirmed. The platform admitted it conspired to promote illegal prostitution, violated the Bank Secrecy Act, and knowingly moved funds linked to criminal activity.

Authorities said the penalty was based on the company’s ability to pay. Paxful profited from facilitating transactions for criminals while failing to enforce anti-money laundering controls, even though it knew some users were involved in fraud, extortion, prostitution, commercial sex trafficking, romance scams, and human trafficking.

Court documents show that from January 2017 to September 2019, Paxful processed over 26.7 million trades worth nearly $3 billion and earned more than $29.7 million in revenue. Part of these transactions involved illicit funds, including transfers on behalf of Backpage, a platform later convicted of promoting illegal prostitution, including content involving minors.

The Justice Department reported that Paxful’s founders internally called this the “Backpage Effect,” which they credited for platform growth. Between 2015 and 2022, almost $17 million in Bitcoin was transferred from Paxful wallets to Backpage and similar websites, generating at least $2.7 million in profit for the company.

From 2015 to 2019, Paxful marketed itself as a platform that did not require know-your-customer verification. It allowed trades without proper KYC data, provided unenforced AML policies to third parties, and failed to report suspicious activity despite clear indicators of criminal conduct.

Paxful pleaded guilty to conspiring to violate the Travel Act by promoting illegal prostitution across state lines, operating an unlicensed money transmitting business, and violating AML requirements under the Bank Secrecy Act. The department reduced the fine from the initially agreed $112.5 million to $4 million due to the company’s limited ability to pay.

The resolution was coordinated with the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, and in July 2024, co-founder and former CTO Artur Schaback also pleaded guilty to related anti-money laundering violations.

Braden John Karony, former CEO of SafeMoon, has been sentenced to eight years in prison for orchestrating a multi-million dollar crypto fraud. The ruling came from U.S. District Judge Eric Komite in Brooklyn after a jury convicted Karony in May 2025 following a three-week trial.

Karony was found guilty of conspiracy to commit securities fraud, wire fraud, and money laundering. He must forfeit roughly $7.5 million, while restitution for victims will be decided later. The jury also ordered the forfeiture of two residential properties. Co-conspirator Thomas Smith pleaded guilty earlier and awaits sentencing, while Kyle Nagy remains at large.

According to Joseph Nocella Jr., Karony deceived thousands of investors including military veterans to fund a lavish lifestyle. FBI Assistant Director James C. Barnacle said Karony misused over $9 million in crypto to buy luxury homes and vehicles, including a $2.2 million Utah residence, other properties in Kansas, an Audi R8, a Tesla, and customized trucks.

The scheme exploited Karony’s access to SafeMoon’s liquidity pool while attempting to hide the transactions. SafeMoon tokens, launched in March 2021, charged a 10% tax on transactions to boost holders’ balances and liquidity pools. Prosecutors allege that Karony and his partners misrepresented the company’s reserves, claiming they were locked and would only be used for business purposes, while secretly diverting millions for personal gain.

Coinbase posted a net loss of $667 million in the fourth quarter of 2025, marking its first quarterly loss since 2023. The decline was driven mainly by non-cash write-downs on crypto holdings and strategic investments, reversing a $1.3 billion profit from the same period last year and falling below analyst expectations.

Despite the loss, Coinbase achieved record operational growth. Total trading volume reached $5.2 trillion, up 156 percent year-over-year, and crypto trading market share doubled to 6.4 percent. Subscription revenue grew as paid Coinbase One users neared one million, and 12 products now generate over $100 million in annualized revenue.

Financial results showed revenue of $1.78 billion, down 21.6 percent from Q4 2024, missing consensus estimates of $1.83 billion. Transaction revenue fell 36 percent to $983 million, and adjusted earnings per share of $0.66 were below analyst forecasts. The main factors behind the GAAP loss included a $718 million unrealized markdown on Coinbase’s crypto portfolio and a $395 million loss on strategic investments, including a 40 percent drop in its stake in Circle, the USDC issuer. The company ended the year with $11.3 billion in cash and cash equivalents.

Competition is rising, with analytics firm Artemis reporting that decentralized derivatives platform Hyperliquid processed $2.6 trillion in trading volume compared with Coinbase’s $1.4 trillion, while Hyperliquid’s token gained 31.7 percent as Coinbase shares fell 27 percent this year.

Coinbase’s 2025 highlights included joining the S&P 500, obtaining EU approval under MiCA regulations, completing acquisitions including Deribit, and winning a lawsuit dismissal from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The exchange is pursuing a broader strategy to diversify beyond spot trading, aiming to build an “Everything Exchange” covering derivatives, equities, and prediction markets, with partnerships such as the one with Kalshi for event-based contracts. Analyst and community commentary, however, has noted that user protection issues remain, with over $350 million in preventable losses reported in 2025.

Bitcoin fell to around 60,000 dollars on February 5 after dropping roughly 50 percent from its peak near 126,000 dollars, according to research from Binance. Despite the scale of the decline, analysts described it as moderate compared with previous market cycles and suggested that today’s conditions reflect stronger institutional participation and macroeconomic influence rather than speculative retail excess.

The report highlighted that Bitcoin has experienced at least nine corrections of 50 percent or more in its history. Earlier downturns included collapses of about 94 percent in 2010 and 2011, a 78 percent fall between late 2021 and late 2022, and an 84 percent decline during the 2017 to 2018 bear market.

According to the researchers, the current pullback appears to be driven largely by macroeconomic factors. Strong labor market data and continued uncertainty around policy decisions from the Federal Reserve have kept liquidity tight and reduced demand for riskier assets. At the same time, investor capital has rotated toward artificial intelligence related stocks and defensive sectors, leaving digital assets competing for attention.

Market data from CoinGecko shows Bitcoin trading just under 67,000 dollars at the time of writing. While it has gained modestly over the past week, it remains significantly lower over the past two weeks and month, reflecting weak broader momentum.

Altcoins have struggled even more, with capital flowing primarily into larger and more established assets. Analysts connected this trend to the rapid expansion of the token market, noting that more than 11 million new tokens launched in 2025, many of which are no longer actively traded.

Some on chain signals suggest caution. Research from Alphractal indicates that Bitcoin’s long term Realized Cap Impulse has turned negative for the first time in three years, a development that has historically aligned with prolonged downturns. The firm’s founder, Joao Wedson, stated that institutional buying and ETF inflows have not completely offset selling pressure.

Broader uncertainty may also be weighing on sentiment. Data from CryptoQuant shows its Global Uncertainty Index at record levels, surpassing readings seen during the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID period. Elevated uncertainty often leads investors to scale back exposure to volatile markets.

Even so, Binance researchers argue that the overall market structure appears more mature. Spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to hold steady assets under management, stablecoin supply remains near cycle highs, and interest in tokenized real world assets is increasing. This week, BlackRock completed settlements for its tokenized Treasury fund using infrastructure connected to Uniswap, highlighting ongoing experimentation with blockchain based financial systems.