CoinSignals

PI has climbed nearly 20 percent from the record low it set only a few days ago, signaling renewed momentum across parts of the crypto market.

Bitcoin began a sharp advance late Friday, pushing toward the 70,000 dollar level before encountering resistance. Earlier this month, Bitcoin had dropped to 60,000 dollars on February 6, then quickly rebounded to 72,000 dollars. However, it failed to sustain that move and drifted back toward 68,000 dollars, trading within a tight range for several days.

Another rejection near the upper boundary on February 10 led to a decline to 66,000 dollars on February 12 and 65,000 dollars by Friday morning. Buyers defended that zone, triggering a recovery to 68,000 and 69,000 dollars, and eventually lifting the asset close to 70,000 dollars on Saturday. The key resistance level remains intact for now.

Bitcoin’s market capitalization has risen to about 1.39 trillion dollars, while its dominance over alternative cryptocurrencies stands near 56.7 percent.

Altcoins are also posting gains. Ethereum rebounded from below 2,000 dollars to nearly 2,100 dollars after a 6 percent daily increase. XRP recovered to 1.45 dollars after dipping to 1.35 dollars. Solana advanced to 86 dollars with a strong daily rise.

Among larger cap tokens, Zcash led with a 20 percent jump to 280 dollars, followed by HBAR, BCH, XLM, and LINK with solid gains.

Pi Network has shown signs of recovery, rising 8 percent on the day and roughly 18 percent since its recent low. Analysts remain divided on whether the move represents a lasting turnaround or a temporary bounce.

The total cryptocurrency market capitalization has increased by approximately 100 billion dollars over the past day, reaching 2.455 trillion dollars.

Federal prosecutors in Ohio are cautioning Americans about a rise in romance scams involving cryptocurrency as Valentine’s Day approaches. Authorities say fraudsters are exploiting online relationships to persuade victims to send digital assets, leading to losses that total millions of dollars.

The U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Northern District of Ohio reported that scammers typically make contact through dating apps, social media platforms, or unsolicited text messages. After building trust over weeks or months, they request money for fake emergencies or investment opportunities. U.S. Attorney David M. Toepfer said these criminals target trust and emotion, often focusing on older or vulnerable individuals.

Officials highlighted several recent cases. In December 2025, authorities charged Frederick Kumi, a Ghanaian national accused of participating in a romance fraud operation that allegedly stole more than 8 million dollars from elderly victims since 2023. Investigators said the group used artificial intelligence tools to create fake identities and maintain convincing conversations before requesting funds. Kumi was arrested in Ghana and faces charges that include wire fraud conspiracy and money laundering conspiracy.

In another case, an Ohio woman lost approximately 663,000 dollars after receiving a message from someone claiming it was sent to the wrong number. The scammer later directed her to open accounts on Crypto.com and Coinbase, then persuaded her to transfer funds to a fraudulent investment platform.

Investigators from the Federal Bureau of Investigation were able to trace some of the stolen funds to crypto wallets and, with assistance from Tether, seized more than 8.2 million dollars in USDT.

Research shows these schemes are part of a broader surge in crypto related fraud. A January 2026 report from PeckShield estimated that scams and hacks cost users over 4 billion dollars in 2025, with about 1.37 billion dollars linked specifically to scams. Losses from scam activity rose around 64 percent compared to the previous year, often involving highly personalized impersonation tactics.

Prosecutors advise individuals to conduct reverse image searches on profile photos, be cautious of anyone unwilling to meet in person, and never send cryptocurrency, gift cards, or wire transfers to someone met online. Victims are encouraged to preserve communications and financial records and report incidents to the FBI’s Internet Crime Complaint Center. Officials also stress that swift reporting is critical, as law enforcement may be able to freeze stolen crypto assets if wallets are identified before funds are moved through mixers or foreign exchanges.

Israeli authorities have charged an Israel Defense Forces reservist and a civilian for allegedly using classified military information to place bets on the prediction market platform Polymarket.

Use of Classified Information

The case follows a joint investigation by the Defense Ministry, Shin Bet, and the Israel Police, which led to multiple arrests, including other reservists. Prosecutors claim that the reservists exploited sensitive information from their military duties to bet on future military developments.

Charges include serious security violations, bribery, and obstruction of justice. A court gag order currently prevents further details from being disclosed, including operational specifics and the full list of individuals involved.

Authorities emphasized that betting based on classified intelligence poses a serious threat to military operations and national security. Officials said the matter is being treated with the highest severity and that anyone misusing secret material will face decisive action.

Suspicious Betting Activity

The investigation began after the Shin Bet examined suspicions of insider betting on Polymarket. Attention focused on a user account called “ricosuave666,” which reportedly placed highly accurate bets in June 2025 on Israeli military operations in Iran. The account allegedly wagered tens of thousands of dollars, earning an estimated profit of around 150,000 dollars.

Market Manipulation Concerns

Polymarket has grown in popularity among both casual traders and high-profile figures, such as Vitalik Buterin.

The United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission has appointed a group of prominent cryptocurrency executives to its newly formed Innovation Advisory Committee. The move comes as the agency, led by Chair Michael S. Selig, signals a more accommodating stance toward digital asset regulation.

Out of 35 members on the panel, 20 represent crypto related firms, while several others are involved in prediction markets. Appointees include Kris Marszalek of Crypto.com, Tyler Winklevoss of Gemini, Tarek Mansour of Kalshi, and Shayne Coplan of Polymarket.

Other notable members include Nathan McCauley of Anchorage Digital, Peter Mintzberg of Grayscale Investments, Vladimir Tenev of Robinhood, Anatoly Yakovenko of Solana, Brad Garlinghouse of Ripple, and Brian Armstrong of Coinbase.

Executives from Paradigm, DraftKings, and Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation were also selected, along with representatives from established financial institutions such as Cboe, CME Group, Nasdaq, and Options Clearing Corporation.

Selig stated that the committee will help ensure the United States remains home to transparent and well regulated financial markets. The Innovation Advisory Committee replaces the former Technology Advisory Committee and will focus on how advancements such as artificial intelligence and blockchain are reshaping derivatives and commodity markets.

In parallel, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission is working with the Securities and Exchange Commission under a joint initiative called Project Crypto. The goal is to align digital asset oversight, reduce regulatory overlap, and create clearer rules for crypto firms operating in the United States.

Bitcoin traders have aggressively increased short positions following recent liquidations, driving funding rates across major exchanges to their most negative levels since August 2024. According to data from Santiment, a similar extreme in bearish positioning previously marked a major bottom for Bitcoin.

In August 2024, funding rates dropped deeply below zero as fear dominated the market and traders overwhelmingly bet on further declines. Instead of continuing lower, Bitcoin reversed course. The crowded short trade was unwound, helping fuel a strong rebound. From that low, Bitcoin surged roughly 83 percent over the following four months.

Funding rates in perpetual futures markets are designed to keep futures prices aligned with spot prices through periodic payments between traders. When funding is negative, short sellers pay long traders, signaling heavy bearish positioning. Extremely negative aggregated rates indicate that a large portion of the market expects prices to fall.

Many of these short positions are leveraged, meaning traders borrow capital to increase exposure. If prices rise instead of fall, losses can mount quickly, triggering forced liquidations. When a large number of short positions are closed at once, the resulting buying pressure can drive prices sharply higher in what is known as a short squeeze.

Santiment also highlighted market behavior following a liquidation event on Binance on October 10, 2025, when long liquidations accelerated a price drop. Afterward, traders shifted heavily into shorts, recreating an imbalance visible in funding rate data.

Current metrics show sentiment once again leaning strongly bearish. While extreme short positioning does not guarantee an immediate rally, Santiment noted that such crowded trades increase the risk of a rapid upside move if short sellers are forced to cover. Based on broader sentiment indicators, the firm suggested that a liquidation driven rebound may be more likely than a voluntary exit from these positions.

Bitcoin moved largely within a range over the past week, with each breakout attempt quickly losing momentum. While the market recovered from the sharp sell off that peaked on February 6, prices remain far below the highs recorded in the fourth quarter of 2025.

The recent downturn saw Bitcoin fall to 60,000 dollars for the first time in more than a year, while many altcoins dropped between 20 and 30 percent in a single day. Bitcoin then staged a strong rebound, climbing 12,000 dollars to briefly touch 72,000 dollars. However, selling pressure soon returned, pushing the asset back toward 68,000 dollars over the weekend.

For several days, Bitcoin traded between 68,000 and 72,000 dollars before another rejection near the upper boundary sent it down to 66,000 dollars on Wednesday and 65,000 dollars on Thursday. Following the release of softer than expected United States inflation data, Bitcoin briefly rose to 67,600 dollars but quickly pulled back to around 66,000 dollars, leaving it close to where it stood a week ago.

Altcoins showed mixed performance. XRP, BNB, HYPE, and SOL posted notable losses, while BCH, XMR, and HBAR gained as much as 9.5 percent.

Market capitalization stands at 2.37 trillion dollars, with 24 hour trading volume at 110 billion dollars. Bitcoin trades near 67,200 dollars, Ethereum around 1,970 dollars, and XRP near 1.38 dollars.

Key Developments This Week

Binance converted its entire 1 billion dollar SAFU fund into Bitcoin, acquiring approximately 15,000 BTC over several weeks.

BlackRock expanded access to its USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund through Uniswap in partnership with Securitize, prompting a sharp rally in UNI.

Discussions between banks and the crypto industry over stablecoin yields continued without a final agreement as regulatory talks approached a key deadline.

Robinhood launched the public testnet of Robinhood Chain, an Ethereum Layer 2 network built on Arbitrum to support tokenized assets.

Mining firm Cango sold more than 300 million dollars worth of Bitcoin as profitability pressures increased amid declining network difficulty.

Author Robert Kiyosaki stated that he considers Bitcoin a stronger investment than gold due to its capped supply, although he prefers holding both assets.

The latest Consumer Price Index data for January 2025 shows inflation easing more than expected, offering a potentially positive signal for risk assets. Annual inflation came in at 2.4 percent, slightly below forecasts of 2.5 percent. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, matched expectations at 2.5 percent. On a monthly basis, headline inflation rose just 0.2 percent, marking the slowest increase since last May.

Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, noted that falling prices for gas, used cars, and medical care helped cool overall inflation, even as utilities and transportation costs moved higher. She described the report as encouraging, though she warned that tariffs could still create another temporary increase in prices.

Bitcoin has historically experienced sharp price swings following CPI releases, as traders reassess expectations for monetary policy. In the minutes after the data was published, Bitcoin briefly climbed to 67,600 dollars before easing back toward 67,200 dollars, reflecting an initial but cautious reaction.

The more meaningful impact may come from how the US Federal Reserve interprets the data. If policymakers view the cooling inflation trend as sustainable, it could strengthen the case for interest rate cuts later this year, a development that would typically support risk assets such as cryptocurrencies. However, any indication that rates will remain higher for longer could limit upside momentum and keep volatility elevated in the near term.

Bitcoin held above 66,000 dollars on Friday, though it remains down roughly 30 percent over the past month. Research from Alphractal shows that Bitcoin’s long term Realized Cap Impulse has shifted into negative territory for the first time in three years, a development that has historically preceded extended market downturns.

Shift in Bitcoin’s Capital Structure

The Realized Cap Impulse measures long term changes in realized capitalization to determine whether fresh capital is entering the network or whether inflows are slowing. A negative reading suggests that new investment is weakening, demand is no longer absorbing supply at the same rate, and the network’s structural growth is contracting.

Alphractal noted that in previous cycles, each time this metric turned negative it was followed by major corrections or prolonged bear markets. The firm linked this trend to supply and demand dynamics, explaining that when available supply outweighs incoming capital, price pressure typically builds to the downside.

Unlike traditional market capitalization, realized capitalization values Bitcoin at the price it last moved on chain. This approach reflects actual capital committed to the network rather than short term price swings, offering a clearer view of long term investor behavior. With the indicator now negative again, Alphractal suggests the current cycle may be entering a phase of weakening capital inflows.

The firm’s founder, Joao Wedson, added that even with exchange traded funds accumulating and large institutions such as Strategy expanding their holdings, demand has not been strong enough to offset periods when supply exceeds buying interest.

Heightened Global Uncertainty

On chain trends are unfolding against a backdrop of elevated macro uncertainty. Data from CryptoQuant shows that the Global Uncertainty Index has climbed to a record high, surpassing levels seen during the September 11 attacks, the Iraq War, the 2008 financial crisis, the Eurozone debt crisis, and the Covid 19 pandemic.

According to CryptoQuant, the current environment reflects markets struggling for direction, more cautious capital flows, and risk being priced more aggressively. With geopolitical, economic, and political pressures occurring simultaneously, volatility may persist rather than fade quickly.

Historically, extreme uncertainty has prompted major shifts in market positioning as participants reassess exposure. While such periods often encourage defensive strategies, they have also coincided with large scale reallocations of capital.

Another week is ending with a fresh wave of crypto options contracts set to expire as spot markets continue to slide.

About 38,000 Bitcoin options contracts expire on Friday, February 13, representing a notional value of roughly 2.5 billion dollars. This figure is slightly higher than last week’s expiry. Meanwhile, the broader crypto market has shed around 125 billion dollars since the beginning of the week, reflecting worsening sentiment and continued withdrawals from both retail and institutional investors.

Bitcoin Options Expiry

This week’s Bitcoin contracts show a put to call ratio of 0.76, indicating more call options than puts are expiring. According to Coinglass, the max pain level stands near 75,000 dollars, which is above the current spot price, leaving many contracts out of the money at expiry.

Open interest remains concentrated at the 60,000 dollar strike price and is building at 50,000 dollars, where more than 1 billion dollars in contracts are positioned on Deribit as bearish sentiment grows. Across all exchanges, total open interest in Bitcoin options has climbed to 36.6 billion dollars this month.

Derivatives analytics firm Laevitas reported the presence of a bear put spread strategy on Deribit. This strategy involves purchasing a higher strike put while selling a lower strike put with the same expiration date.

Deribit noted that with Bitcoin stabilizing and trading volumes easing from panic driven levels, traders are watching whether expiry will pull prices toward 75,000 dollars or pave the way for a new directional move.

Analytics provider Greeks Live stated that put options continue to dominate activity, with more than 1 billion dollars in Bitcoin puts traded in a single day, accounting for 37 percent of total volume. Most of these contracts are out of the money, concentrated between 60,000 and 65,000 dollars. This positioning suggests that institutions expect further downside over the next one to two months.

In addition to Bitcoin contracts, around 217,000 Ethereum options are also expiring today, carrying a notional value of 406 million dollars. The max pain level for Ethereum stands at 2,150 dollars, with a put to call ratio of 0.89. Total open interest in Ethereum options across exchanges is approximately 7 billion dollars. Combined, the total value of today’s crypto options expiries is close to 2.9 billion dollars.

Spot Market Outlook

Total crypto market capitalization has fallen another 1.5 percent to 2.34 trillion dollars as selling pressure persists. Bitcoin slipped to just above 65,000 dollars in late Thursday trading and hovered near 66,000 dollars during Friday’s Asian session.

Market analysts largely maintain a bearish stance, with some projecting a potential bottom near or below Bitcoin’s realized price of 55,000 dollars. Ethereum remains under pressure below 2,000 dollars and recently touched an intraday low of 1,900 dollars. Continued weakness in Bitcoin could weigh further on Ethereum in the weeks ahead.

Crypto lender BlockFills has temporarily halted client transfers as liquidity strains surface. The firm attributed the move to the latest sharp downturn in the digital asset market.

BlockFills announced that it has temporarily paused client deposits and withdrawals due to heightened market volatility and challenging financial conditions. The decision, made last week, was described as a precautionary step aimed at safeguarding both clients and the company.

Pause on Client Transfers

In its official statement, BlockFills explained that although deposits and withdrawals are currently on hold, clients can still access trading services. This includes opening and closing positions in spot and derivatives markets, along with certain other activities permitted under specific conditions set by the company.

The suspension could impact roughly 2,000 institutional clients, including asset managers and hedge funds. BlockFills serves only investors who hold at least 10 million dollars in crypto assets. In 2025, these clients generated more than 60 billion dollars in trading volume on the platform.

The company emphasized that its leadership team is working closely with investors and clients to address the liquidity challenges and normalize operations.

BlockFills stated that it remains dedicated to transparent communication and client protection. Management has been collaborating directly with stakeholders to resolve the issue as quickly as possible and restore liquidity. The firm added that it has maintained ongoing discussions with clients throughout the process, hosting information sessions and giving them opportunities to raise questions with senior executives.

Market Turbulence

The decision comes during a wider downturn in the cryptocurrency market and recalls earlier periods of industry stress, such as the 2022 collapse of FTX and other crypto lenders. Bitcoin began to slide on October 10 after a social media post by Donald Trump concerning tariffs, a development that fueled volatility and triggered nearly 20 billion dollars in liquidations across the market.

In the months that followed, Bitcoin continued its decline, dropping below 65,000 dollars, more than 45 percent beneath its October peak. On February 5, it touched a year to date low of 60,008 dollars. Uncertainty surrounding stalled crypto legislation in the United States has also weighed heavily on investor sentiment.