{"id":1108,"date":"2026-02-28T21:17:35","date_gmt":"2026-02-28T21:17:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/?p=1108"},"modified":"2026-02-28T21:17:35","modified_gmt":"2026-02-28T21:17:35","slug":"is-the-bottom-still-ahead-cryptoquant-highlights-deep-bitcoin-deleveraging","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/2026\/02\/28\/is-the-bottom-still-ahead-cryptoquant-highlights-deep-bitcoin-deleveraging\/","title":{"rendered":"Is the Bottom Still Ahead? CryptoQuant Highlights Deep Bitcoin Deleveraging"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-gallery has-nested-images columns-default is-cropped wp-block-gallery-1 is-layout-flex wp-block-gallery-is-layout-flex\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"512\" height=\"256\" data-id=\"1109\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/IMG_1440-1.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1109\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/IMG_1440-1.png 512w, https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/IMG_1440-1-300x150.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 512px) 100vw, 512px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Fresh analysis from CryptoQuant suggests that Bitcoin is undergoing a significant deleveraging process, yet the market may not have reached the ultimate low of the current bear cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Although conditions have cooled and speculative excess is being flushed out, key derivatives metrics imply that a full capitulation event has not yet taken place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>CME Basis Signals Cooling but Not Capitulation<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>One of the primary indicators cited in the report is compression in the Bitcoin basis on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. The CME basis represents the premium investors are willing to pay for leveraged long exposure through futures contracts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Since 2025, the yield curve has been trending downward in a pattern similar to those seen ahead of the 2019 and 2022 bear markets. This compression reflects declining demand for leveraged long positions, as traders grow more cautious and less willing to pay elevated premiums for future exposure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, the curve remains positively sloped. Longer dated futures contracts continue to trade above spot prices and short dated contracts. Historically, major cycle bottoms have formed only after the yield curve flipped negative into backwardation, signaling intense stress and aggressive deleveraging. That shift has not yet occurred.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The current structure indicates fading bullish conviction and a more neutral to bearish backdrop. It also suggests that price rallies could face continued resistance until a clearer cyclical low is established.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Open Interest Collapse Mirrors Prior Bear Market<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Additional evidence of a reset in positioning can be seen in the sharp decline in futures open interest. CME Bitcoin futures open interest has fallen approximately 47 percent from its 2025 peak, closely matching the 45 percent drop recorded during the 2022 bear market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Such a steep reduction points to a widespread unwind of leveraged positions following a period of heightened speculation. The drawdown reflects extended liquidations, reduced speculative appetite, and lower hedging activity. This is consistent with a prolonged deleveraging cycle rather than a sudden panic driven capitulation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>A Mid Cycle Bearish Regime<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>When viewed together, declining open interest and a still positive yield curve suggest the market is in a consolidative or mid cycle bearish phase. Leverage is being reset gradually, but the acute stress conditions that typically mark definitive bottoms have yet to materialize.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In previous cycles, durable lows emerged only after deeper structural shifts in derivatives positioning. Until those signals appear, the data implies that further downside or extended consolidation remains possible before Bitcoin establishes a lasting bottom.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Fresh analysis from CryptoQuant suggests that Bitcoin is undergoing a significant deleveraging process, yet the market may not have reached the ultimate low of the current&#46;&#46;&#46;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1108","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1108","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1108"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1108\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1110,"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1108\/revisions\/1110"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1108"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1108"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1108"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}