{"id":2004,"date":"2026-04-01T14:09:31","date_gmt":"2026-04-01T14:09:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/?p=2004"},"modified":"2026-04-01T14:09:31","modified_gmt":"2026-04-01T14:09:31","slug":"analyst-says-bitcoins-sp-correlation-is-misleading-as-a-bullish-signal","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/2026\/04\/01\/analyst-says-bitcoins-sp-correlation-is-misleading-as-a-bullish-signal\/","title":{"rendered":"Analyst Says Bitcoin\u2019s S&P Correlation Is Misleading as a Bullish Signal"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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A negative relationship between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 does not necessarily indicate growing strength. It may simply reflect uneven price movements where Bitcoin rises briefly while the index remains weak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On chain analyst Axel Adler Jr. explained in his March 31 briefing that the recent shift to negative correlation should not be viewed as a bullish sign.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He pointed out that a more reliable indicator, the Bitcoin to S&P price ratio, has been declining since the beginning of the year, showing that Bitcoin continues to lag behind equities rather than separating from them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Weak Relative Strength Keeps Bitcoin Linked to Equities<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Adler\u2019s analysis focuses on two key indicators that together provide a clearer view of Bitcoin\u2019s position in the market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The first is the 13 week correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500, which tracks how closely their weekly returns move together over a short period. This metric has recently turned negative, meaning the two assets are no longer moving in sync.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At first glance, this could suggest that Bitcoin is becoming independent from traditional markets. However, Adler disagrees with that interpretation. He explained that a drop in correlation only shows that price movements have become less aligned, not that Bitcoin is gaining strength. Short bursts of upward movement in Bitcoin combined with ongoing weakness in the S&P 500 can produce a negative reading without indicating true outperformance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The second and more important measure is the Bitcoin to S&P price ratio, which directly reflects relative performance. When the ratio rises, Bitcoin is outperforming the index. When it falls, it is underperforming.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to Adler, this ratio has declined significantly since January 2026 and has remained under pressure in recent weeks. This suggests that even when correlation weakened, Bitcoin did not emerge as a safe haven or deliver consistent gains compared to equities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He concluded that the market still treats Bitcoin as a higher risk asset with greater downside potential than the S&P 500. A true separation from equities, he said, would require a sustained upward reversal in the price ratio that holds over time, not just a short lived move. At present, that confirmation has not yet appeared.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market Performance and Broader Economic Context<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bitcoin dropped to a monthly low just below 65,000 dollars earlier in the week before rebounding above 68,000 dollars, where it faced resistance amid renewed tensions involving the United States and Iran.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading near 67,000 dollars, down about 1.4 percent over the past day and roughly 6.5 percent over the past week. Over a two week period, losses approach 10 percent, while performance over the past month remains nearly flat with only a slight decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The global backdrop has added further uncertainty, especially as oil prices have surged by around 50 percent since late February due to supply concerns linked to the Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Adler\u2019s assessment suggests that Bitcoin is unlikely to break free from broader market pressure as long as the S&P 500 continues to struggle, regardless of what short term correlation data may indicate.#crypto#cryptonews https:\/\/coinsignals.net<\/a> https:\/\/t.me\/coinsignalpublic<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A negative relationship between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 does not necessarily indicate growing strength. It may simply reflect uneven price movements where Bitcoin rises briefly...<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2004","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2004","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2004"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2004\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2006,"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2004\/revisions\/2006"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2004"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2004"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2004"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}