{"id":2445,"date":"2026-04-17T00:28:31","date_gmt":"2026-04-17T00:28:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/?p=2445"},"modified":"2026-04-17T00:28:31","modified_gmt":"2026-04-17T00:28:31","slug":"arthur-hayes-outlines-bitcoin-outlook-across-four-iran-war-scenarios","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/2026\/04\/17\/arthur-hayes-outlines-bitcoin-outlook-across-four-iran-war-scenarios\/","title":{"rendered":"Arthur Hayes Outlines Bitcoin Outlook Across Four Iran War Scenarios"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Arthur Hayes has shared a detailed outlook on Bitcoin\u2019s future, suggesting that its short term direction may depend more on how the US Iran conflict unfolds than on central bank policy decisions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hayes, who serves as chief investment officer at Maelstrom, explained that the ongoing conflict, now nearing seven weeks, has created such uncertainty that his fund avoided major activity in the first quarter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Four Possible Outcomes and Their Market Impact<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the center of Hayes\u2019s analysis is one key issue involving the flow of ships through the Strait of Hormuz. He outlined four potential scenarios, excluding a nuclear escalation scenario, which he considers too extreme to evaluate from an investment perspective.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The first scenario assumes a return to normal conditions where the conflict ends and shipping resumes. However, Hayes noted that this outcome may still bring challenges due to continued pressure from artificial intelligence on white collar jobs. He suggested that layoffs could gradually weaken banks holding consumer credit, potentially creating financial strain. In this case, Bitcoin could rise to between 80,000 and 90,000 dollars, though he does not see this as a strong buying opportunity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The second scenario involves Iran limiting access to the Strait and introducing tolls. Hayes believes this could encourage countries to reduce reliance on the US dollar, increase gold purchases, and adopt the Chinese yuan for trade settlements. Such a shift could negatively affect US financial markets, with Bitcoin potentially facing initial pressure as investors reduce risk before recovering when central banks inject liquidity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A related development emerged when Donald Trump announced plans for the US Navy to block ships entering or leaving the Strait. Hayes advised that traders should focus less on political statements and more on oil market indicators to assess actual supply disruptions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The fourth scenario envisions the US military eliminating Iran\u2019s ability to disrupt the Strait. However, Hayes warned that Iran has threatened to target broader energy infrastructure in the Gulf if that happens. This could force central banks worldwide to increase money supply while also raising the risk of a wider conflict.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bitcoin\u2019s Price Driven by Money Supply<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across all scenarios, Hayes emphasized a consistent theme that Bitcoin is influenced more by the amount of money in circulation than by interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even if central banks raise rates to combat inflation in food and energy, governments are likely to increase borrowing to fund defense and secure resources. If private investors are unwilling to absorb this debt, central and commercial banks may step in, effectively expanding the money supply. Hayes argued that this environment tends to weaken assets dependent on cash flow while supporting Bitcoin and gold.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the time of his analysis, Bitcoin was trading around 75,000 dollars, marking a weekly gain of about 5 percent and slightly outperforming the broader cryptocurrency market.#crypto#cryptonews https:\/\/coinsignals.net<\/a> https:\/\/t.me\/coinsignalpublic<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Arthur Hayes has shared a detailed outlook on Bitcoin\u2019s future, suggesting that its short term direction may depend more on how the US Iran conflict unfolds...<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2445","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2445","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2445"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2445\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2447,"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2445\/revisions\/2447"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2445"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2445"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2445"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}