{"id":4375,"date":"2026-07-01T21:35:02","date_gmt":"2026-07-01T21:35:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/?p=4375"},"modified":"2026-07-01T21:35:02","modified_gmt":"2026-07-01T21:35:02","slug":"bitcoin-may-drop-into-the-40000-range-before-reaching-bottom-say-bitfinex-analysts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/2026\/07\/01\/bitcoin-may-drop-into-the-40000-range-before-reaching-bottom-say-bitfinex-analysts\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin May Drop Into the $40,000 Range Before Reaching Bottom, Say Bitfinex Analysts"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Analysts at Bitfinex<\/a> believe Bitcoin may still have further downside before reaching the bottom of the current bear market cycle. Based on on chain data and historical market trends, they expect Bitcoin\u2019s decline could continue into the $40,000 range before a recovery begins.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the latest Bitfinex Alpha report, Bitcoin could fall further by the end of 2026 as more investors continue exiting the spot market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Potential Decline Into the $40,000 Range<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In previous market cycles, Bitcoin has consistently fallen by at least 70 percent from its all time highs before reaching a market bottom. During the 2022 bear market, Bitcoin dropped 78 percent from its peak of $69,000. In 2018, it declined by 86 percent from highs near $20,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Using these historical drawdown patterns and the average duration between market peaks and bottoms, analysts believe Bitcoin may continue its downward trend into the $40,000 range. Bitcoin is currently down 53.9 percent from its all time high of $126,000. A drop into the $40,000 range would push total losses to roughly 68 percent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts also estimate that Bitcoin could reach its bear market bottom in the fourth quarter of 2026, especially when considering historical price behavior in relation to moving averages.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite Bitcoin breaking below key support levels over the weekend, analysts say its broader market structure remains unchanged. At around $60,000, Bitcoin is trading below the True Market Mean of $77,000, which reflects the average cost basis of active investors. This level is often seen as the dividing line between bullish and bearish market conditions. As long as Bitcoin remains below this threshold, the market is expected to stay in bearish territory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Spot Demand Remains Weak<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

After falling below the $61,500 support level and reaching a new bear market low of $58,136 last week, analysts now identify $53,400 as the next major support level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The move toward $58,000 highlights weakening spot demand. This weakness is reflected in selling from short term holders, outflows from exchange traded funds, the breakdown of digital asset treasury activity, and increasing negative gamma pressure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Unlike previous market declines, Bitcoin\u2019s recent drop below $60,000 did not trigger major liquidations or significant open interest flushes. This suggests the selloff was driven more by sustained spot market selling rather than leveraged market activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With the market\u2019s main source of demand currently absent, Bitcoin may continue to struggle and remain under pressure in the coming weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts noted that the market needs a strong return of spot demand before Bitcoin can establish a solid floor and begin moving higher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If you want it shorter, more professional, or more news-style, I can adjust it.#crypto#cryptonews https:\/\/coinsignals.net<\/a> https:\/\/t.me\/coinsignalpublic<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Analysts at Bitfinex believe Bitcoin may still have further downside before reaching the bottom of the current bear market cycle. Based on on chain data and...<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4375","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4375","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4375"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4375\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4377,"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4375\/revisions\/4377"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4375"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4375"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4375"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}