{"id":466,"date":"2026-02-04T09:52:53","date_gmt":"2026-02-04T09:52:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/?p=466"},"modified":"2026-02-04T09:52:53","modified_gmt":"2026-02-04T09:52:53","slug":"bitcoin-could-test-58k-support-as-on-chain-metrics-weaken-analyst-says","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/2026\/02\/04\/bitcoin-could-test-58k-support-as-on-chain-metrics-weaken-analyst-says\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Could Test $58K Support as On-Chain Metrics Weaken, Analyst Says"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Bitcoin has struggled to recover above $78,000 following heavy losses over the past weekend, with bears regaining control and pushing the price down. Galaxy Digital research head Alex Thorn warned that recent on-chain data and market trends indicate further downside risk for BTC. Weak momentum, macroeconomic uncertainty, and a lack of clear catalysts suggest continued pressure rather than relief.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Downtrend Strengthens<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thorn highlighted Bitcoin\u2019s sharp late-January sell-off, when the price fell 15 percent between January 28 and 31 and accelerated into the weekend. On Saturday alone, the roughly 10 percent drop triggered one of the largest liquidation events on record, wiping out over $2 billion in long positions across futures exchanges.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

During this period, BTC touched $75,644 on Coinbase and fell about 10 percent below the average cost basis of US spot Bitcoin ETFs, estimated at $84,000. The price briefly dipped below Strategy\u2019s reported average cost of $76,037 and approached its one-year low of $74,420 set during April 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thorn noted that 46 percent of Bitcoin\u2019s circulating supply is underwater, meaning those coins last moved at higher prices. January also marked four consecutive red monthly candles for BTC for the first time since 2018. Historically, except for 2017, Bitcoin has not experienced a roughly 40 percent drawdown from an all-time high without extending toward a 50 percent decline within three months. Based on the current cycle, this suggests potential prices around $63,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The research also pointed to a large gap in on-chain ownership between $82,000 and $70,000, indicating limited demand in that range and increasing the likelihood of further declines. Current analysis places Bitcoin\u2019s realized price near $56,000 and the 200-week moving average around $58,000, levels that remain relevant as long as spot prices stay above them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thorn added that whale accumulation is limited, long-term holder selling has eased only slightly, and clear market catalysts are hard to identify. Bitcoin has underperformed compared to safe-haven assets like gold and silver amid heightened macro and geopolitical uncertainty. While the passage of the CLARITY Act could act as a positive external factor, its likelihood has diminished, and any benefits may favor altcoins more than Bitcoin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These factors suggest that Bitcoin could drift toward the lower $70,000 range and possibly test the 200-week moving average and realized price in the high $50,000 area in the coming weeks. Historically, these levels have represented cycle bottoms and strong long-term entry points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

BTC Bottom Could Fall Further<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Crypto analyst Doctor Profit recently lowered his expectations for Bitcoin\u2019s cycle bottom following the price decline. He now projects a bottom between $54,000 and $44,000, down from his previous estimate of $50,000 to $60,000, citing the loss of key technical support levels.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin has struggled to recover above $78,000 following heavy losses over the past weekend, with bears regaining control and pushing the price down. Galaxy Digital research...<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-466","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/466","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=466"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/466\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":468,"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/466\/revisions\/468"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=466"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=466"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=466"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}