{"id":4716,"date":"2026-07-14T22:20:21","date_gmt":"2026-07-14T22:20:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/?p=4716"},"modified":"2026-07-14T22:20:21","modified_gmt":"2026-07-14T22:20:21","slug":"bitcoin-approaches-historical-end-of-bear-phase-as-analysts-watch-for-recovery-signals","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/2026\/07\/14\/bitcoin-approaches-historical-end-of-bear-phase-as-analysts-watch-for-recovery-signals\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Approaches Historical End of Bear Phase as Analysts Watch for Recovery Signals"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Bitcoin may be entering the final stretch of a historical bear market cycle, according to the latest Bitfinex Alpha<\/strong> report, although analysts caution that macroeconomic conditions will ultimately determine whether a sustained recovery takes hold.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Historically, Bitcoin has spent five to six months<\/strong> trading below the Short Term Holder Realized Price<\/strong>, a period often associated with prolonged market weakness. Bitfinex noted that the fifth and sixth months have typically marked the closing stage of that cycle before a broader recovery begins.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With July representing the fifth month of the current downturn, analysts believe Bitcoin could be approaching an important turning point.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Recovery Depends on More Than Historical Trends<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While seasonal patterns have historically favored Bitcoin in July, Bitfinex warned that favorable timing alone is unlikely to trigger a lasting rally.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The firm said macroeconomic developments, particularly the June US Consumer Price Index report and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, remain the biggest variables influencing market direction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the analysts, Bitcoin\u2019s recovery will require both supportive macroeconomic conditions and renewed demand rather than relying solely on historical cycle behavior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bitcoin Shows Resilience Despite Heavy Selling Pressure<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Throughout July, Bitcoin has demonstrated notable resilience despite facing several major headwinds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The cryptocurrency absorbed record corporate selling, including Strategy\u2019s<\/strong> largest Bitcoin sale to date, while navigating uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policy and escalating geopolitical risks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite those challenges, BTC has largely maintained a trading range between $61,300<\/strong> and $64,700<\/strong>, suggesting buyers have continued to defend key support levels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Institutional sentiment also showed early signs of improvement after US spot Bitcoin exchange traded funds ended a nine week streak of net outflows<\/strong>, recording approximately $197.4 million<\/strong> in net inflows for the first time in more than two months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ETF Trends Remain a Key Indicator<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bitfinex believes the pattern of ETF flows may be more important than the headline figures themselves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the report, most inflows occurred during relatively calm trading sessions and slowed whenever geopolitical tensions intensified, indicating that institutional demand has yet to establish a consistent foundation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The firm identified the 30 day Simple Moving Average (SMA)<\/strong> of ETF net flows as one of the most important indicators to monitor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That metric currently continues to reflect a broader trend of net outflows<\/strong>, with daily ETF redemptions recently totaling $88.9 million<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Whether the SMA begins to reverse in the weeks ahead may depend on whether Bitcoin\u2019s historically strong July performance can outweigh persistent macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical risks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For now, analysts believe Bitcoin is approaching a historically favorable point in its market cycle, but a lasting recovery will likely require stronger institutional demand and a more supportive macroeconomic backdrop.#crypto#cryptonews https:\/\/coinsignals.net<\/a> https:\/\/t.me\/coinsignalpublic<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin may be entering the final stretch of a historical bear market cycle, according to the latest Bitfinex Alpha report, although analysts caution that macroeconomic conditions...<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4716","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4716","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4716"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4716\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4718,"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4716\/revisions\/4718"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4716"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4716"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4716"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}