{"id":5041,"date":"2026-07-30T22:35:50","date_gmt":"2026-07-30T22:35:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/?p=5041"},"modified":"2026-07-30T22:35:50","modified_gmt":"2026-07-30T22:35:50","slug":"analyst-says-bitcoins-next-major-rally-may-begin-after-us-midterm-elections","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/2026\/07\/30\/analyst-says-bitcoins-next-major-rally-may-begin-after-us-midterm-elections\/","title":{"rendered":"Analyst Says Bitcoin\u2019s Next Major Rally May Begin After US Midterm Elections"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Bitcoin\u2019s long-term market cycles may be influenced by the U.S. election calendar, with historical data suggesting the cryptocurrency tends to recover after midterm elections, according to Alphractal founder Joao Wedson.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a July 30 post on X, Wedson argued that Bitcoin has repeatedly entered bear markets in the year leading up to U.S. midterm elections before launching into sustained bull markets once the political uncertainty surrounding the vote subsides.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Historical Election Trends Stand Out<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

After comparing Bitcoin\u2019s price action with previous U.S. election cycles, Wedson identified what he believes is a recurring pattern.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

His analysis suggests Bitcoin typically falls into a bear market roughly one year before midterm elections, with market bottoms forming either shortly before or soon after voters cast their ballots. From there, the cryptocurrency has historically transitioned into a longer-term uptrend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Presidential election years appear to tell a different story. According to Wedson, Bitcoin has consistently rallied following presidential victories before eventually reaching a major cycle peak not long after the new president takes office.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cData reveals patterns that narratives often miss,\u201d the analyst wrote.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He also pointed to XRP as another example, noting that the token began a strong rally immediately after Donald Trump won the 2024 U.S. presidential election and reached a local high on January 20, 2025, the day of his inauguration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wedson\u2019s findings echo conclusions from an earlier Binance Research report, which also observed that Bitcoin has historically underperformed during U.S. midterm election years before recovering once political uncertainty eased.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to that report, Bitcoin has declined by an average of about 56% during completed midterm election cycles since 2014, followed by average gains of roughly 54% in the year after the elections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Recovery Alone Doesn\u2019t Confirm a New Bull Market<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wedson has previously cautioned investors against assuming that rising prices automatically signal the start of a new bull cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He argued that a genuine market bottom requires more than a rebound in price. In his view, investors should also see evidence of widespread capitulation, reduced leverage across the market, and fresh capital entering through short-term holders before concluding that a lasting trend reversal has occurred.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Macro Environment Remains a Key Variable<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

With roughly three months remaining until Americans head to the polls, Bitcoin is trading around $64,000\u2014nearly 50% below its October 2025 all-time high above $126,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Over the past week, the cryptocurrency has slipped around 2.5%, according to CoinGecko data, though it remains nearly 8% higher over the last month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bitcoin has also held up relatively well following the U.S. Federal Reserve\u2019s latest decision to keep interest rates unchanged within the 3.50% to 3.75% range. Whether historical election patterns play out again may ultimately depend on broader macroeconomic conditions and investor sentiment in the months ahead.#crypto#cryptonews https:\/\/coinsignals.net<\/a> https:\/\/t.me\/coinsignalpublic<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin\u2019s long-term market cycles may be influenced by the U.S. election calendar, with historical data suggesting the cryptocurrency tends to recover after midterm elections, according to...<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5041","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5041","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5041"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5041\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5043,"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5041\/revisions\/5043"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5041"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5041"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5041"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}