{"id":794,"date":"2026-02-16T22:21:33","date_gmt":"2026-02-16T22:21:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/?p=794"},"modified":"2026-02-16T22:21:33","modified_gmt":"2026-02-16T22:21:33","slug":"bitcoins-next-bull-cycle-hinges-on-a-key-on-chain-indicator","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/2026\/02\/16\/bitcoins-next-bull-cycle-hinges-on-a-key-on-chain-indicator\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin\u2019s Next Bull Cycle Hinges on a Key On Chain Indicator"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-gallery has-nested-images columns-default is-cropped wp-block-gallery-1 is-layout-flex wp-block-gallery-is-layout-flex\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"480\" height=\"300\" data-id=\"795\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/IMG_1399-2.jpeg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-795\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/IMG_1399-2.jpeg 480w, https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/IMG_1399-2-300x188.jpeg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 480px) 100vw, 480px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The crypto market remains uncertain, with mixed signals and weak momentum. Bitcoin has also shown limited strength, slipping more than 1 percent in the past day as pressure persists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to Joao Wedson, co founder of Alphractal, Bitcoin\u2019s strongest bull runs have historically begun only after long term holders fall into unrealized losses. The Net Unrealized Profit and Loss metric for long term holders currently stands at 0.36, meaning these investors are still in profit. Wedson explains that the critical signal appears when this metric turns negative, indicating that even the most resilient holders are at a loss. In previous cycles, this shift has aligned with extreme pessimism, seller exhaustion, and the transition from bear markets into new bull phases.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Additional valuation data supports the cautious outlook. CryptoQuant reports that Bitcoin\u2019s Market Value to Realized Value ratio has entered the Accumulation Zone for the first time in four years, a level last seen in May 2022. During the previous occurrence, Bitcoin later fell roughly 50 percent from around 30,000 dollars to 15,000 dollars.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Accumulation Zone is defined by an MVRV reading below 1.44 and potentially as low as 0.90, levels that historically suggest undervaluation relative to realized price. While such periods are often marked by pessimism and volatility, they have also tended to provide favorable conditions for long term accumulation before the start of a new bullish cycle.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The crypto market remains uncertain, with mixed signals and weak momentum. Bitcoin has also shown limited strength, slipping more than 1 percent in the past day&#46;&#46;&#46;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-794","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/794","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=794"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/794\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":796,"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/794\/revisions\/796"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=794"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=794"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=794"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}