{"id":824,"date":"2026-02-17T22:50:38","date_gmt":"2026-02-17T22:50:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/?p=824"},"modified":"2026-02-17T22:50:38","modified_gmt":"2026-02-17T22:50:38","slug":"bitcoin-stalls-at-a-critical-stress-zone-as-on-chain-data-warns-the-bottom-may-not-be-in-yet","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/2026\/02\/17\/bitcoin-stalls-at-a-critical-stress-zone-as-on-chain-data-warns-the-bottom-may-not-be-in-yet\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Stalls at a Critical Stress Zone as On-Chain Data Warns the Bottom May Not Be In Yet"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Bitcoin\u2019s price has been rangebound between $60,000 and $70,000, reflecting continued uncertainty and fear of further declines. Recent on-chain data highlights rising risks near Short-Term Holder Realized Price bands, levels historically associated with the exit of weaker hands and the accumulation activity of stronger, long-term investors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

High-Risk, High-Opportunity Zone<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alphractal reports that Bitcoin is trading within a narrow range defined by these Short-Term Holder Realized Price levels, with price action closely respecting the -1\u03c3 and -1.5\u03c3 deviation bands in recent weeks. Historical patterns indicate that when BTC falls below the lower deviation band, the market can either form a local bottom or enter a deeper capitulation phase before accumulation begins. These bands have repeatedly acted as natural support and resistance across multiple cycles, with the -1.5\u03c3 level marking periods of maximum stress when short-term selling intensifies and long-term investors begin accumulating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Joao Wedson, founder of Alphractal, emphasized that while short-term stress is high, longer-term metrics suggest the market may not yet have reached a true bottom. The Net Unrealized Profit\/Loss (NUPL) for long-term holders, which measures whether the most resilient investors are in unrealized profit or loss, currently stands at 0.36. This indicates that despite recent volatility, long-term holders remain profitable. Historical data shows that the clearest signal of a late bear market appears only when this metric turns negative, reflecting extreme pessimism and exhaustion among sellers conditions that have typically marked the end of bear markets rather than the start of a new upward cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Miners Adjust Holdings Amid Market Stress<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Further on-chain data points to significant miner activity as Bitcoin hovers near these critical stress levels. CryptoQuant reports that more than 36,000 BTC have been withdrawn from exchanges since the start of February, an accelerated pace compared to previous months. Withdrawals included over 12,000 BTC from Binance and more than 24,000 BTC from other exchanges, suggesting widespread repositioning rather than isolated activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These movements are generally associated with long-term storage strategies, as miners transfer assets off exchanges into cold wallets, reducing immediate sell-side supply. Daily withdrawals peaked above 6,000 BTC, the highest since November and well above January levels, highlighting that miners are actively managing liquidity and repositioning in response to ongoing market uncertainty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Taken together, these indicators suggest that while short-term stress is high and selling pressure from weaker holders is evident, accumulation by stronger hands continues, and long-term holders remain profitable. This combination points to a market that is navigating a critical stress zone, with the potential for further volatility before a sustainable bottom is established.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin\u2019s price has been rangebound between $60,000 and $70,000, reflecting continued uncertainty and fear of further declines. Recent on-chain data highlights rising risks near Short-Term Holder...<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-824","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/824","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=824"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/824\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":826,"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/824\/revisions\/826"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=824"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=824"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.coinsignals.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=824"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}