Bitcoin’s long term holder supply remains close to historic highs even after a recent decline from its peak. Indicators that typically signal overheating in the market are still relatively moderate compared with previous market cycle peaks.
As of March 11, 2026, Bitcoin’s long term holder realized supply stood at about 8.05 million BTC. This represents a decline of roughly 5.5 percent from the cycle peak of 8,529,671 BTC recorded on March 8, 2026, when Bitcoin was trading at 65,974 dollars and the metric’s Z score reached 3.20.
By the time of the latest reading, the Z score had eased to 2.66.
A More Compressed Market Cycle
According to crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr., the recent pullback has not significantly changed the broader picture. The amount of Bitcoin held by long term holders at this stage of the cycle remains historically elevated.
When compared with previous cycles at the same stage after the halving, which is day 691 after the event, the current cycle shows significantly larger holdings.
Data indicates that the total amount of coins held by long term holders is about 1.52 times higher than during the 2020 cycle and approximately 3.4 times higher than in the 2016 cycle at comparable points.
Adler explained that the current Z score of 2.66 is very close to the 2016 cycle reading of 2.94 at the same stage. During the 2016 halving cycle, this period marked the early phase of the final redistribution stage. That phase continued for roughly another 200 days before the metric reached its all time high in December 2018.
The 2020 cycle followed a different pattern. At day 691 after the halving in that cycle, the Z score was only 1.08. This reflected the end of the bear market following the collapse of Terra and LUNA, and the long term holder realized supply had already been declining for about eight months from its peak.
Adler also reviewed the MA365 ratio, which currently stands at 1.595 in the present cycle. This level is lower than the equivalent reading in the 2016 cycle, which reached 2.523, and slightly higher than the 2020 cycle level of 1.502. According to the analyst, this suggests that the degree of market overheating relative to the one year moving average remains moderate.
Historically, the final peaks of long term holder realized supply have occurred between days 880 and 912 after a halving event. This is roughly 190 to 220 days later than the current stage in the cycle. In those earlier cycles, the Z score eventually rose to between 4.24 and 4.94 before reaching its peak. If the current cycle follows a similar timeline, the recent peak could represent only an intermediate high rather than the final one.
Accumulation Momentum Slows
Adler also noted that the current cycle differs structurally from earlier ones because institutional inflows into Bitcoin exchange traded funds have absorbed large quantities of coins. This has reduced the amount of supply available for active trading and may be accelerating the accumulation process among long term holders.
At the same time, the pace of accumulation appears to be slowing. The 30 day rate of change currently stands at about 7.6 percent. This is far below the levels observed during similar phases in previous cycles when the metric increased by as much as 87 percent in 2016 and 51.6 percent in 2020.
According to the analyst, this slower growth rate may indicate that the market is entering a stabilization phase following the strong accumulation period seen in January and February 2026. #crypto#cryptonews https://t.me/coinsignalpublic https://coinsignals.net
