Arthur Hayes has highlighted how Bitcoin has performed better than both Gold and the Nasdaq 100 since the conflict between the United States and Iran began on February 28.
According to data he shared on X on March 12, Bitcoin has climbed about 7 percent since the conflict started. During the same period, gold declined by roughly 2 percent while the Nasdaq 100 slipped by around 0.5 percent.
Bitcoin Remains Resilient as Other Assets Struggle
Hayes posted a normalized performance chart comparing Bitcoin, gold, and the Nasdaq 100 beginning on February 28. Each asset started from the same baseline, making it easier to compare how they performed over the following two weeks.
The chart showed Bitcoin standing out compared with the traditional safe haven asset and the major technology stock index. The cryptocurrency rose by about 7 percent during a period when energy prices were rising amid concerns about potential supply disruptions.
Even so, Bitcoin’s price movement during that time was not completely stable. When news first emerged about military strikes by the United States and Israel on Iran, Bitcoin dropped from around 66000 dollars to slightly above 63000 dollars. It later rebounded to about 67000 dollars following reports of the death of Ali Khamenei.
Analysts at London Crypto Club supported Hayes’ view and said they had observed a similar pattern when the Israel Palestine conflict escalated. They explained that Bitcoin can react to extreme scenarios on both ends of the risk spectrum while often trading alongside equities during more stable periods.
At present, Bitcoin is trading near 70000 dollars, with its price fluctuating between about 69000 and 71000 dollars over the past twenty four hours, according to data from CoinGecko. The asset has gained less than 2 percent during the day. Over the past week, however, Bitcoin remains down about 3.5 percent, though its current value is roughly 2 percent higher than its level thirty days ago.
Supply Tightening on Exchanges
Looking at broader market data, analysts at Arab Chain reported that the Binance BTC Scarcity Index recently reached its highest level since October 2025 at 5.10.
This metric measures how much Bitcoin is readily available for sale on Binance. The higher reading suggests that supply on the exchange has decreased. Historically, such conditions have appeared during bullish market phases when investors move their Bitcoin into cold storage rather than keeping it on trading platforms.
Hayes Is Still Watching the Federal Reserve
Despite Bitcoin’s relative strength, Hayes said he is not currently buying the asset. In a recent interview, the former BitMEX chief explained that he is cautious about investing at the moment.
He warned that if the conflict between the United States and Iran continues for an extended period, it could trigger a broader sell off in equity markets that might push Bitcoin down toward 60000 dollars.
Meanwhile, Mike McGlone, a strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, offered a different outlook. He suggested that oil prices could approach 120 dollars, Bitcoin might climb toward 90000 dollars, copper could rise to around 6 dollars per pound, and silver might reach close to 100 dollars per ounce. Such moves could mark a peak for risk assets in the first quarter of 2026, with increasing volatility potentially spilling over into global equity markets. #crypto#cryptonews https://t.me/coinsignalpublic https://coinsignals.net
