Bitcoin has pushed past a major supply zone, climbing above $70,000 and briefly reaching $74,000. While the move signals strength, heavy profit taking and subdued futures activity are raising concerns about whether the rally can be sustained over the long term.
The asset recently moved above the upper limit of its February to March trading range. On chain data shows that Bitcoin cleared a dense accumulation area between $59,000 and $72,000. However, it has since slipped back below that upper boundary, although the daily close has yet to confirm this move.
Can Bitcoin Reach $82,000 Next
According to data from Glassnode, the UTXO Realized Price Distribution reveals that the cleared zone held a large portion of recently acquired supply. With that barrier removed, Bitcoin has entered a relatively low liquidity area between $72,000 and $82,000, where limited prior accumulation could mean less resistance in the short term. Even so, broader indicators suggest that the breakout has not yet confirmed a lasting structural shift in the market.
The percentage of supply currently in profit has climbed to about 60 percent. This aligns with early recovery stages seen in past cycles, but remains below the long term average of around 75 percent that typically signals a stronger bull market. At the same time, short term holders have been taking profits aggressively, with realized gains recently reaching $18.4 million per hour, adding selling pressure that the market must absorb.
Glassnode noted that holding above $70,000 while managing this wave of profit taking would improve the chances of further gains toward key levels such as the True Market Mean near $78,000 and the upper boundary around $82,000.
Beyond on chain signals, off chain data points to improving demand. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen renewed inflows after a period of outflows, reflecting returning institutional interest. However, open interest in CME futures remains low, suggesting that the current rally is being driven more by spot demand than leveraged trading. While this often indicates a more stable market, a sustained uptrend usually requires growth in both capital inflows and derivatives participation.
Spot market activity also shows strengthening buyer momentum. Cumulative volume delta across major exchanges has shifted from consistent selling to net buying, with Coinbase flows stabilizing and trending upward.
Bearish Positions Still Present
In derivatives markets, negative funding rates indicate that many traders are still holding short positions. This has contributed to the recent price rise through short covering. Options data also shows a more balanced market structure, with declining implied volatility reducing demand for downside protection and a gradual increase in call option buying.
At the same time, a concentration of negative gamma exposure around the $75,000 level could continue to influence short term price movements and potentially amplify upward swings through dealer hedging activity. Glassnode concluded that while the current positioning may support further upside in the near term, a sustained rally will likely depend on continued capital inflows and stronger market conviction.#crypto#cryptonews https://coinsignals.net https://t.me/coinsignalpublic
