Bitcoin narrowly avoided matching its longest streak of consecutive monthly losses after closing March with a small gain following a highly volatile period influenced by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
The asset spent most of the month under pressure but managed to recover late in the final trading session, finishing slightly higher instead of extending its losing run.
Focus has now moved to April and the second quarter, with analysts assessing what may come next for the market.
March Ends Slightly Positive After Extended Downtrend
Although Bitcoin reached a new all time high in early October, that month still ended with a small loss and marked the beginning of a sustained downturn. Data from CoinGlass shows that after a 3.7 percent decline in October, Bitcoin dropped more than 17.5 percent in November, 3 percent in December, and then recorded additional double digit losses in both January and February 2026.
This sequence resulted in five straight months of declines, placing the market firmly in a bearish phase. March was at risk of extending that streak and matching the worst historical run seen between August 2018 and January 2019. Prices even fell below key levels during the month, but a late rebound on March 31 pushed Bitcoin back above 68,000 dollars, allowing it to close with a modest gain of 1.8 percent.
Despite this, quarterly performance remained weak. Following a 23.07 percent drop in the final quarter of 2025, Bitcoin fell another 22.2 percent in the first quarter of 2026, marking its worst first quarter performance since the 2018 bear market when it lost about 50 percent in the same period.
April Outlook and Market Expectations
Historically, April has often delivered stronger performance for Bitcoin, including a major rally in 2013 and several double digit gains between 2016 and 2020.
Research analyst Lacie Zhang noted that the outlook for April 2026 remains cautiously positive, despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and fragile market sentiment tied to ceasefire discussions in the Middle East.
She explained that Bitcoin and stablecoins are increasingly being used as capital flow channels out of the region, showing relatively low correlation with traditional financial markets. She added that this pattern may support continued institutional accumulation, even amid headline driven volatility.
Zhang also outlined possible scenarios for the second quarter. If conflict in Iran escalates and oil prices rise above 120 dollars, Bitcoin could fall toward 55,000 dollars while Ethereum might decline toward 1,500 dollars.
On the other hand, a meaningful de escalation could push Bitcoin above 90,000 dollars and Ethereum above 2,700 dollars.
She also highlighted the potential impact of the proposed CLARITY Act, though she estimated only a 40 to 60 percent chance of it passing within the year.#crypto#cryptonews https://coinsignals.net https://t.me/coinsignalpublic
