The ISM Manufacturing PMI has remained above 52 for three consecutive months, although a confirmed altcoin season would likely require it to move beyond 55.
According to popular analyst Ash Crypto, the ALT to BTC chart has recorded four straight green MACD bars for the first time in nearly six years.
The last time this occurred, altcoins outperformed Bitcoin by about 60 percent over the following three months.
Three Signals Coming Together
In an April 2 post on X, Ash Crypto explained that in the years following the 2022 bear market, the ALT to BTC ratio remained largely negative and oversold. This reinforced the belief that altcoins had not fully recovered while Bitcoin continued to dominate.
However, the analyst now points to three key developments unfolding simultaneously, which could signal improving conditions for altcoins.
The first and most notable is the MACD indicator, which tracks momentum by comparing moving averages. The analyst observed that four consecutive green bars have now appeared on the monthly ALT to BTC chart. The last instance of this pattern was in August 2020, just before a strong rally in altcoins relative to Bitcoin, when capital shifted into smaller digital assets.
The second factor is the ISM Manufacturing PMI, an index that measures activity in the United States manufacturing sector. Readings above 55 have historically coincided with altcoin rallies in 2017 and 2021. Ash Crypto noted that the index has now stayed above 52 for three months in a row, a level last seen in October 2022.
The third factor is easing inflation in the United States. Consumer price index data has dropped to its lowest level in five years, reducing pressure on the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy. This creates a more supportive environment for risk assets such as altcoins.
The analyst described the current setup as one of the most favorable macro environments for risk assets in years.
Not Yet a Full Altcoin Season
Despite these positive signals, Ash Crypto stopped short of declaring a full altcoin season. They noted that the ISM index would need to rise above 55, alongside broader liquidity expansion and a sustained decline in Bitcoin dominance, for a true altcoin cycle to take hold.
Instead, the analyst suggested the possibility of a meaningful recovery lasting two to three months, provided Bitcoin breaks above 76000 dollars and Ethereum climbs toward the 2800 to 3200 dollar range.
Shortly after sharing this outlook, Ash Crypto added that a major speech by Donald Trump regarding tensions in the Middle East had already complicated the situation. They noted that market analysis can quickly become irrelevant when unexpected geopolitical developments disrupt price trends.
Following Trump’s warning that the United States could take strong military action against Iran in the coming weeks, Bitcoin dropped below 67000 dollars while Ethereum fell under 2100 dollars. The broader crypto market also declined by more than 3 percent in total value, according to data from CoinGecko.
Meanwhile, data shared on March 30 by analyst Darkfost revealed that more than 40 percent of altcoins were trading at or near their all time lows, a situation worse than what was observed during the 2022 bear market.
In addition, XWIN Research Japan reported a bearish outlook for most major altcoins, including Ethereum, XRP, Solana, and BNB. Data from CryptoRank showed that only seven tokens delivered positive returns in the first quarter of 2026, with TRON being the only top ten asset to end the period in positive territory.#crypto#cryptonews https://coinsignals.net https://t.me/coinsignalpublic
