A meaningful recovery signal would require the Short Term Holder SOPR to rise above 1.0 while Net Realized Profit and Loss turns positive at the same time.
Short term holders of Bitcoin are increasingly selling at a loss, as the seven day moving average of Net Realized Profit and Loss has fallen to negative 410 million dollars. This represents a 60 percent deterioration from last week’s figure of negative 256 million dollars.
At the same time, the Short Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio, known as STH SOPR, has remained below the breakeven level for nine consecutive days. This metric shows whether recent buyers are selling above or below their purchase price, and current readings indicate continued loss taking.
What the Data Indicates
The Net Realized Profit and Loss metric measures total gains and losses from all Bitcoin transactions recorded on chain over a specific period. When the figure is negative, it means that total losses outweigh gains. Analysts rely on the seven day average to reduce daily fluctuations and better identify trends.
Crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr. noted that the trend is still worsening. The latest reading of negative 410 million dollars marks a significant drop from approximately negative 256 million dollars just one week earlier, representing a swing of 154 million dollars.
For context, the lowest point in the first quarter occurred on February 7 when the metric reached negative 1.99 billion dollars. While current levels are not as extreme, the renewed increase in losses signals growing pressure after a relatively stable period.
Adler also pointed out that STH SOPR has remained below 1.0 for nine straight days and currently stands at 0.9899. A reading below this level typically means that sellers, on average, are realizing losses.
Although this metric alone does not serve as a direct sell signal, extended periods below 1.0 have historically appeared before both short term market bottoms and further declines.
Analysts Caution About Further Declines
The continued loss selling among short term holders reflects weakening overall market sentiment.
A pseudonymous analyst known as Mr. Wall Street stated that he has adopted a fully bearish outlook across both short and medium term timeframes. He argued that Bitcoin’s previous rally from 60000 dollars to 76000 dollars likely served as a setup to build liquidity for a larger downward move. He also revealed that he has opened short positions targeting potential price levels between 40000 and 45000 dollars.
For those monitoring signs of recovery, Adler advised watching for STH SOPR to move back above 1.0 while Net Realized Profit and Loss simultaneously turns positive and remains there for a sustained period.
As of April 2, Bitcoin was trading near 66000 dollars, down about 30 percent from its January peak. The recent decline followed renewed geopolitical tension after Donald Trump indicated that military conflict with Iran would continue instead of easing.#crypto#cryptonews https://coinsignals.net https://t.me/coinsignalpublic
