Prediction markets experienced a surge in activity during the second quarter of 2026, with trading volumes reaching new highs as major global sporting events attracted a wave of participation. At the same time, Kalshi strengthened its lead over rival platforms, while traditional financial firms and major technology companies continued expanding into the sector.
Sports Events Fuel Record Trading Activity
According to a CoinGecko report, total notional trading volume across prediction markets climbed to $113.8 billion in the second quarter, representing a 48.7 percent increase compared with the previous quarter.
Momentum accelerated in June, when monthly trading volume hit a record $50.7 billion, almost double the average monthly volume of $27.5 billion recorded during the preceding five months.
CoinGecko attributed much of the growth to a packed sports calendar that included the UEFA Champions League Final, Stanley Cup Finals, NBA Finals, FIFA World Cup, and Wimbledon.
Sports contracts dominated activity on Polymarket, accounting for 81 percent of all trading volume in June, a significant jump from 40 percent in January.
Kalshi Expands Its Lead
Despite the surge in sports related trading, Polymarket’s share of the prediction market declined from 35.8 percent in the first quarter to 30.2 percent in the second.
Kalshi, however, continued gaining ground, increasing its market share from 42.4 percent to nearly 58.9 percent, further establishing itself as the industry’s leading platform.
Another notable newcomer was Rothera, the joint venture launched by Robinhood and Susquehanna International Group in May. The platform quickly rose to become the fourth largest prediction market by June after recording approximately $2.1 billion in notional trading volume.
Wall Street and Big Tech Enter the Market
The growing popularity of prediction markets has also attracted interest from established financial institutions.
Last month, Cboe Global Markets introduced Cboe Predicts, a platform offering securities based binary option contracts tied to the Mini S&P 500 Index.
The contracts, which allow traders to speculate on whether the index will finish above or below a predetermined level, are already available through Interactive Brokers, with Charles Schwab expected to provide access in the near future. Cboe also indicated that additional brokerage firms are likely to support the products over time.
Meanwhile, The New York Times reported that Meta is developing a standalone prediction markets application called Arena.
The platform would initially allow users to forecast real world events using points rather than real money, although the report suggested it could eventually expand into real money wagering. The project is reportedly a key initiative for CEO Mark Zuckerberg and follows Meta’s earlier Forecast platform, which launched during the COVID 19 pandemic before being discontinued in 2022.#crypto#cryptonews https://coinsignals.net https://t.me/coinsignalpublic
