Bitcoin’s powerful rally earlier this year may have run its course, with new data suggesting that the market has entered a distribution phase characterized by investors reducing exposure during periods of price strength rather than accumulating additional holdings.
According to the latest edition of the Bitfinex Alpha report, a combination of on chain indicators and market flow data points to a significant shift in Bitcoin’s market structure. The accumulation phase that fueled the cryptocurrency’s advance has given way to a period dominated by selling pressure, raising the possibility of a deeper correction.
Analysts believe this transition could eventually push Bitcoin toward price levels last seen during the first half of 2024.
Bitcoin Moves From Accumulation to Distribution
Bitcoin briefly fell below the $60,000 mark on June 5 amid substantial outflows from spot Bitcoin exchange traded funds and persistent macroeconomic uncertainty.
Although the asset has recovered in recent sessions and climbed back above that psychological level, Bitfinex analysts argue that the rebound may be masking a more important development beneath the surface.
In their view, Bitcoin has entered a distribution regime.
During last week’s selloff, BTC declined to approximately $59,200, its lowest level in several months and a price area not revisited since October 2024.
The decline represented a 53 percent pullback from Bitcoin’s October 2025 all time high. It also marked a 28.5 percent drop from the levels recorded in mid May and a 20 percent decline from the June monthly opening price.
Perhaps more importantly, Bitcoin failed to maintain support above $60,000, a level that had acted as a major price anchor since February.
With Bitcoin now trading back within its first quarter 2026 consolidation range, analysts outlined two potential paths for the market.
The more constructive scenario would see Bitcoin remain confined within a broad trading range between $60,000 and $72,000.
The more bearish outcome could lead to a fresh phase of price discovery at levels not seen since the maturation of the spot ETF market.
Risks of a Deeper Correction Remain
Bitfinex analysts believe the worst case scenario becomes increasingly likely if Bitcoin loses the $60,000 level for an extended period.
They noted that current price action is already unfolding near the lower boundary of previous trading ranges, influenced by several factors including continued ETF outflows and Bitcoin sales linked to Strategy.
At the same time, broader macroeconomic conditions continue to weigh on investor sentiment.
Rising energy costs, stronger than expected labor market data, and tighter financial conditions driven by Federal Reserve policy have all contributed to the cautious environment.
However, analysts identified weakening spot demand as the most important factor behind Bitcoin’s recent struggles.
Evidence of this trend can be seen in the dramatic reversal of Spot Cumulative Volume Delta, a metric used to gauge the balance between aggressive buyers and sellers in the spot market.
“Spot Cumulative Volume Delta has transitioned into a clear negative regime, touching depths reminiscent of the large liquidations seen in February,” the report stated. “The data confirms that aggressive distribution, especially by recent buyers, is currently the dominant force on exchange order books.”
What Could Reverse the Trend?
Historically, distribution phases persist until a meaningful shift in demand emerges.
According to Bitfinex, Bitcoin is unlikely to transition back into an accumulation phase unless sustained buying activity returns to the spot market.
Until then, the market appears to be driven by profit taking, defensive positioning, and a reluctance among investors to increase exposure amid ongoing economic uncertainty.
While Bitcoin has managed to recover from its recent lows, the underlying data suggests caution may still be warranted. Unless demand strengthens and selling pressure begins to ease, the world’s largest cryptocurrency could remain vulnerable to further downside before establishing a more durable recovery.#crypto#cryptonews https://coinsignals.net https://t.me/coinsignalpublic
