Bitcoin has struggled through February, yet continued accumulation by miners and long term holders suggests potential underlying support.
Data from analyst GugaOnChain shows that about 42.85 percent of Bitcoin’s circulating supply is currently at a loss. Quarterly performance sits near negative 26 percent, and the Net Unrealized Profit and Loss indicator has dropped to 21.30 percent, a level associated with fear in the market. The analyst sees limited chances of recovery before the second quarter of 2026.
XWIN Research supported this cautious outlook, noting that the Fear and Greed Index recently fell to 8, a level typically seen during major stress periods such as the 2018 bear market bottom, the March 2020 pandemic crash, and the FTX collapse in November 2022. Analysts say the data reflects loss aversion and herd behavior, as investors reduce exposure following steep declines.
Institutional activity also signals weakness. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net outflows of 2.17 billion dollars since the start of the month, with withdrawals accelerating as prices approached 60,000 dollars in early February.
Additional data from Santiment shows funding rates across exchanges have turned sharply negative, indicating traders are positioning for further downside. According to CoinGecko, Bitcoin is down roughly 3 percent over the past week, 10 percent over two weeks, and 28 percent over the past month. The asset remains about 46 percent below its October 2025 all time high above 126,000 dollars.
The broader crypto market has also contracted. Mid cap and small cap altcoins are down 18.3 percent, while the top 20 assets have declined by 12.48 percent in growth rate terms.
Despite the downturn, accumulation remains notable. Accumulator addresses have added 380,104 BTC in the past 30 days, and miners appear to be holding their reserves rather than selling, supported in part by revenue from artificial intelligence related operations.
Overall, current conditions reflect fear, defensive positioning, and selective accumulation, with recovery likely dependent on renewed investor resilience.
