Bitcoin’s futures market has moved into a bullish phase for the first time in three months, according to analyst Axel Adler Jr. The Bitcoin Positioning Index climbed to 3.5, breaking above the key 3 level for the first time since October, signaling a steady buildup of long positions rather than a one-day spike.
The index, which tracks open interest, funding rates, and long-short ratios across major exchanges, last reached similar levels on October 6, 2025, just before Bitcoin surged to $125,000. Current data shows growing optimism, backed by a 1.89% rise in open interest, positive taker flow, and funding rates at 0.0045. Bitcoin itself rose nearly 4% to $95,358, while total open interest climbed to $12.18 billion.
Adler said the breakout of the 30-day moving average above 3 marks a shift in market positioning after months in a neutral range. He added that this bullish setup would remain intact as long as the index stays above 2 for at least a week.
Market sentiment remains strong as well. The Bitcoin Advanced Sentiment Index peaked at 93% before easing to 70%, still well above the neutral 50% level and its 30-day average of 62.9%. Adler described the pullback as a healthy cooldown rather than a trend reversal. By contrast, December’s drop to $85,000 saw sentiment collapse to 10–15%, which he called a structural breakdown.
QCP Capital also expects more upside in a continued risk-on environment, pointing to stable inflation, solid equity and metals markets, and supportive macro conditions. While risks remain from geopolitical tensions and a pending U.S. Supreme Court ruling on tariffs, the firm believes much of this is already priced in, and any escalation could offer buying opportunities for Bitcoin.
