ARK Invest believes that by 2030, only two or three Layer 1 blockchain platforms will capture the majority of value in the smart contract sector.
In its Big Ideas 2026 report, ARK Invest estimated that smart contract networks and pure digital currencies could reach a combined market value of $28 trillion by 2030. According to the firm, these assets function as stores of value, mediums of exchange, and units of account on public blockchains and could grow at an annual rate of roughly 61 percent through the end of the decade.
ARK projects that Bitcoin alone could represent about 70 percent of the total crypto market, with the remaining share largely led by smart contract platforms such as Ethereum and Solana.
Bitcoin at the Center of ARK’s 2030 Forecast
Under ARK’s outlook, Bitcoin’s market capitalization could grow at a compound annual rate of approximately 63 percent, rising from nearly $2 trillion today to around $16 trillion by 2030.
The firm also expects the market value of smart contract platforms to increase at a 54 percent annual rate, reaching about $6 trillion by 2030. This growth would be supported by estimated annual revenues of $192 billion, assuming an average take rate of 0.75 percent. ARK noted that just two to three Layer 1 networks are likely to command most of this market.
ARK further reported that US Bitcoin ETFs and publicly traded companies held 12 percent of the total Bitcoin supply in 2025, up from 8.7 percent previously. ETF holdings alone rose nearly 20 percent during the year, increasing from about 1.12 million BTC to nearly 1.3 million BTC.
Public companies also significantly expanded their Bitcoin reserves, with holdings climbing 73 percent from roughly 598,000 BTC to about 1.09 million BTC.
The firm observed that Bitcoin delivered stronger risk adjusted returns than most major cryptocurrencies and traditional indexes for much of 2025. Its average annual Sharpe Ratio exceeded those of Ethereum, Solana, and the average of the remaining assets in the CoinDesk 10 Index since the market cycle low in November 2022, as well as since the start of 2024 and 2025.
ARK added that Bitcoin’s volatility has continued to decline as it increasingly takes on a safe haven role.
A Future with Only a Few Lasting Digital Assets
ARK also found that Layer 1 networks are transitioning from purely revenue driven platforms into monetary assets. Using a high growth revenue multiple of 50 times Ethereum’s network revenue, the firm estimated that more than 90 percent of Ethereum’s market value is tied to its monetary role. In contrast, Solana generated $1.4 billion in revenue, meaning roughly.
