A new report suggests that excessive leverage was largely cleared out in the fourth quarter, while realized price indicators and profitability metrics point to a more resilient Bitcoin market structure.
Bitcoin is currently trading in a narrow range below $79,000, supported by broader macroeconomic momentum. Most digital assets have moved in a similar pattern, yet analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s outlook.
According to a joint analysis from Coinbase and Glassnode, Bitcoin appears to be in a stronger position than many alternative cryptocurrencies, which are still recovering from the sharp market decline seen last October.
A Healthier Entry Into 2026 for Bitcoin
Coinbase and Glassnode argue that crypto markets are entering 2026 in better shape after excess leverage was mostly removed during the fourth quarter. This assessment is supported by several on chain indicators. One key metric, the entity adjusted Net Unrealized Profit and Loss, shows that investor sentiment dropped from a belief phase into anxiety following the October sell off and remained at that level throughout the quarter.
At the same time, Bitcoin’s realized price continued to climb into early 2026, signaling a rising aggregate cost basis across the market. Since the spot price remains above the realized price, the average holder is still sitting on unrealized gains rather than losses.
The Market Value to Realized Value ratio is currently near 1.5, indicating that Bitcoin is trading at about a 50 percent premium compared to its on chain cost basis.
Key On Chain Signals
During the fourth quarter of 2025, the portion of Bitcoin supply held at a profit declined sharply. The report noted that this suggests price levels between $80,000 and $85,000 likely functioned as an accumulation range for model driven strategies. It also highlighted shifts in both dormant and active supply dynamics.
Bitcoin supply that moved within the prior three months increased by 37 percent in the fourth quarter, while supply that had remained inactive for over a year decreased by 2 percent. This pattern points to a potential high velocity distribution phase during that time.
The Puell Multiple also dropped to 0.9 in the fourth quarter, indicating that miners were earning roughly 10 percent less than the average revenue of the previous year.
Finally, net long term holder positioning and changes in exchange balances together suggested profit taking activity between July and September. However, the report found no clear evidence that the same behavior continued through the fourth quarter of 2025.
