Since August 2025, XRP investors have been moving their coins at a rising pace, increasing selling pressure and pushing the asset’s on chain profitability into negative territory.
The last six months have been difficult for XRP, the native token of the Ripple Network. The asset now appears to be signaling capitulation, as holders lock in significant losses during a wave of panic driven selling.
According to data from Glassnode, XRP’s on chain profitability has turned negative. The Spent Output Profit Ratio, or SOPR, has declined from 1.16 on July 25, 2025 to 0.96 at present. Analysts note that this setup resembles the period between September 2021 and May 2022, when XRP’s SOPR dropped below 1. That decline was followed by an extended consolidation phase before the market stabilized.
XRP Investors Face Steep Losses
Since August 2025, XRP’s price has trended downward, with only brief recoveries before continuing lower. By late October, the token had fallen 27 percent from 3.5 dollars in mid July to 2.4 dollars. As prices weakened, long term holders who accumulated before November 2024 increased their daily spending by 580 percent, from 38 million dollars to 260 million dollars.
This elevated level of selling continued into early November, suggesting distribution during weakness rather than strength. Analysts pointed out that this wave of selling differed from previous profit taking periods that coincided with price rallies. The data indicated that experienced market participants were closing positions, adding further downward pressure on XRP.
By mid November, the portion of XRP supply in profit had dropped to 58.5 percent, its lowest level since November 2024, when the asset traded at 0.53 dollars. Although XRP was valued around 2.15 dollars at that time, roughly four times its November 2024 price, more than 41 percent of the circulating supply was at a loss. This suggested a market structure heavily weighted toward late buyers and vulnerable to further declines.
Capitulation Signal or Structural Breakdown
In mid November, XRP fell below the 2 dollar mark. The 30 day estimated market average of daily realized losses climbed to 75 million dollars. Since the start of the year, each retest of the 2 dollar level has been accompanied by weekly realized losses ranging between 500 million and 1.2 billion dollars. The 2 dollar level has become an important psychological threshold for XRP investors.
At the time of writing, XRP was trading at 1.40 dollars and had fallen below the average cost basis of its holders, a factor contributing to panic selling. This has led to debate over whether the market is undergoing capitulation or facing a deeper structural breakdown. Analysts argue that the current situation represents capitulation rather than structural failure, noting that market fundamentals are stronger today compared with 2022, when regulatory clarity was still lacking.
