Bitcoin briefly slipped under 65,000 dollars on Monday after President Donald Trump proposed raising global tariffs to 15 percent. While the most aggressive phase of the recent drop may have passed, analysts warn that the broader cycle could still have further downside ahead as global liquidity tightens.
According to market analyst Doctor Profit, Bitcoin has now entered what he describes as Stage 4 of a multi phase cycle shaped by liquidity conditions, leverage, and investor psychology. Stage 1 unfolded during the rally between 115,000 and 125,000 dollars, when optimism was extreme, leverage was elevated, and many believed downside risk had disappeared. That period of euphoria was followed by weakness beneath the key 100,000 dollar level, triggering stress among short term traders and leveraged positions.
Stage 3 marked the most violent part of the downturn, with Bitcoin falling roughly 38 percent from its all time high and wiping out about half of its market capitalization in a rapid repricing event. Panic and forced liquidations dominated that stretch, leaving little room for effective risk management.
Now in Stage 4, the market is characterized by sideways price action, reduced volatility, and mounting psychological pressure. Rather than sharp collapses, this phase tends to drain confidence slowly as frustration and uncertainty push weaker holders to exit positions at a loss. Short term rebounds toward the 57,000 to 60,000 dollar range remain possible, but broader sentiment remains fragile.
Doctor Profit suggests that a final capitulation phase, often associated with systemic stress or unexpected macro shocks, could unfold later. Revised downside projections now fall between 35,000 and 45,000 dollars as liquidity conditions deteriorate. A true recovery would likely begin only after selling pressure fades and larger participants quietly accumulate while retail traders remain cautious.
In this view, although the fastest drop may be over, the most psychologically demanding stage of the cycle may just be beginning.
