On chain data from Glassnode indicates that Bitcoin has entered a phase historically associated with extended bear markets. The Realized Profit to Loss Ratio has shifted decisively toward loss driven selling, signaling that more investors are closing positions at a loss rather than locking in gains. This type of environment was last observed during the severe downturns of 2018 and 2022.
Glassnode reports that the 90 day simple moving average of the Realized Profit to Loss Ratio has fallen below 1. This metric compares the total value of Bitcoin sold at a profit to the value sold at a loss. A reading below 1 confirms that losses now outweigh profits across the network. Analysts at the firm describe this as a full transition into a loss realization regime, a phase that in past cycles has often lasted six months or longer before liquidity conditions improved.
The downturn in this indicator began earlier in the year when the ratio stood near 1.5 in early February and around 1.32 in late January. Additional data from CryptoQuant suggests that whale related metrics, including Unspent Profitability Ratios across different holder groups, have fallen to levels similar to those seen in mid 2022, a period that preceded further downside before the eventual market bottom.
This renewed pressure follows a sharp slowdown in profit taking late last year. In the fourth quarter of 2025, seven day average realized profits exceeded one billion dollars before falling to under 200 million dollars by December. That temporary cooling allowed Bitcoin to stabilize and briefly recover above 96,000 dollars in early January.
The recovery did not last. Bitcoin is currently trading near 63,200 dollars, down more than 3 percent in the past 24 hours and nearly 29 percent over the last month. The asset also remains close to 50 percent below its October 2025 all time high.
Analysts attribute much of the weakness to broader macroeconomic pressures, including recent tariff measures announced by United States President Donald Trump, which have weighed on risk assets globally.
While the on chain signals appear bearish, some market participants believe the broader long term cycle remains intact. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan recently described the current volatility as part of Bitcoin’s developmental phase. At the same time, technical analyst Ali Martinez has warned that a potential death cross on the three day chart could signal further downside, similar to patterns that preceded major declines in previous cycles.
