Bitcoin may be heading toward a lower price floor as the estimated electricity cost required to mine one BTC continues to decline, according to analyst Ted Pillows.
This development is strengthening expectations that Bitcoin could drop below 50,000 dollars, with projections pointing to levels last seen in 2024.
Mining costs indicate possible downside
The concept of electric cost refers to the estimated energy expense needed to produce a single Bitcoin. Based on Pillows’ analysis, this cost has now fallen below 50,000 dollars and could decrease further toward 45,000 dollars.
He believes this trend suggests Bitcoin may eventually dip under 50,000 dollars, with a potential bottom forming between 46,000 and 48,000 dollars, aligning with lows recorded in August 2024.
This outlook is supported by traders on Kalshi, who are currently forecasting a similar bottom near 48,000 dollars. However, not all analysts agree on a bearish short term outlook.
For instance, Ali Martinez recently identified a right angled descending broadening wedge pattern on Bitcoin’s one hour chart. This type of formation is often interpreted as a bullish reversal signal, with a potential upside target near 75,700 dollars if a breakout occurs.
Meanwhile, Merlijn The Trader pointed out that Bitcoin has entered the dollar cost averaging zone on the Rainbow Chart for the fourth time in its history. According to this perspective, previous entries into this zone have been followed by strong long term rallies, suggesting accumulation may be underway again.
Geopolitical tensions continue to influence price
Pillows’ bearish outlook comes at a time when Bitcoin’s price movements are being heavily influenced by global political developments rather than purely technical indicators. The asset recently dropped below 68,000 dollars after Donald Trump threatened action against Iran’s power infrastructure amid ongoing tensions.
Bitcoin later climbed above 71,000 dollars after Trump signaled a delay in those actions and claimed that discussions between the two sides had been constructive. However, Iranian officials denied that such talks took place, leading to renewed uncertainty and another dip below 70,000 dollars.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is moving back toward 71,000 dollars and has gained around 8.5 percent over the past month.
Previously, Martinez described the range between 65,636 dollars and 70,685 dollars as a no trade zone, noting that more than 1.7 million BTC had been exchanged within that band. With both buyers and sellers holding firm, he suggested that a decisive move will only occur once the price clearly breaks above or below this range.
At present, the market is facing mixed signals. Declining mining costs and prediction market data suggest further downside risk, while technical patterns continue to support the possibility of a recovery.#crypto#cryptonews https://coinsignals.net https://t.me/coinsignalpublic
