Ethereum’s open interest is once again nearing its all time peak of 7.8 million ETH, a level last seen in July 2025, while the balance between spot and futures trading has shifted dramatically.
Data shared by on chain analyst Darkfost on April 6 shows that open interest, which had fallen to about 5 million ETH in October, has surged by nearly 3 million ETH to reach 7.8 million. Around 36 percent of this activity is taking place on Binance, representing roughly 2.3 million ETH.
At the same time, the ratio between spot and futures trading volume on Binance has dropped to 0.13, the lowest level ever recorded. This means futures trading now dominates the market, with roughly seven dollars traded in futures for every one dollar in spot transactions.
According to Darkfost, this imbalance makes the current market environment difficult to interpret, which is often a warning sign. Broader geopolitical and economic tensions, including the ongoing conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, have made investors more cautious. Despite this, speculative activity in Ethereum’s derivatives market remains strong.
Ethereum has climbed back above 2,100 dollars, gaining close to 5 percent over the past week and slightly more within the last 24 hours, based on data from CoinGecko. However, the analyst noted that much of this recent price movement appears to be driven by speculation rather than genuine demand.
He also warned that the heavy reliance on leverage creates a fragile market structure. If traders begin adjusting positions or face liquidation events, price swings could become significantly more intense.
Another analyst, Ali Martinez, highlighted several key price levels that could influence Ethereum’s longer term direction. He identified 1,800 dollars as a crucial support zone within a potential ascending triangle pattern. This aligns with the 0.80 MVRV band near 1,880 dollars, a range often associated with reduced selling pressure as many holders are in loss.
If the current pattern expands into a broader downward channel, Ethereum could fall toward 1,550 dollars or even 1,070 dollars. On chain data suggests that previous buying activity around 1,584 dollars, 1,238 dollars, and 1,089 dollars may provide support if prices decline.
On the upside, the 2,500 dollar level remains a critical point to watch. Martinez explained that a sustained move above this threshold would indicate that the average investor has returned to profit, potentially paving the way for a stronger upward trend.#crypto#cryptonews https://coinsignals.net https://t.me/coinsignalpublic
