An analyst has revealed that long term holders accumulated about 3.06 million BTC within three months, even as some older coins are being sold below their purchase price.
Bitcoin’s long term holder group continues to grow steadily. Data shared by Axel Adler Jr. shows that the Long Term Holder Realized Supply increased from 5.26 million BTC in January 2026 to 8.32 million BTC by April 16. This represents an addition of 3.06 million BTC over three months and a rise from 4.35 million BTC over the past year.
This metric reflects the amount of bitcoin that has remained unmoved for more than 155 days. Its growth is not only driven by new accumulation but also by existing coins becoming classified as long term holdings simply because they have not been spent.
Long Term Holder Supply Expands Rapidly
Over the last year, this supply has climbed from 4.16 million BTC to 8.32 million BTC, pointing to a tightening of liquid supply as bitcoin consolidates around seventy six thousand dollars. However, this trend alone does not guarantee an upcoming price surge. Adler noted that any decline in Long Term Holder Realized Supply would suggest that older coins are being reintroduced into circulation, which would signal weakening market conditions.
For comparison, during the peak of the 2022 bear market in November, this metric reached 15.31 million BTC before falling as holders began spending their coins.
At the same time, the Long Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio on a seven day simple moving average has dropped below 1.0 and currently stands at 0.979. This marks the fifth consecutive day below that level since April 12, indicating that long term holders are selling at a loss. Similar dips below 1.0 have occurred repeatedly since February 2026, including a sharper decline to 0.798 between late March and early April that lasted a full week. A short recovery above 1.0 took place between April 5 and April 11 before the current decline resumed.
Adler clarified that this ratio only measures the profitability of coins that are actually spent by long term holders rather than the entire group. He also pointed out that the current pattern differs from deeper bear market conditions, such as in 2022 when the metric stayed below 1.0 for 231 days with a low of 0.45, or in 2018 to 2019 when it remained below that level for 292 days. According to him, the present situation reflects localized stress rather than full scale capitulation. The key factor to watch is whether the ratio holds above its March lows or drops further, especially if Realized Supply begins to decline.
Market Signals Point to a Cautious Balance
The combination of these indicators presents a market that is neither strongly bullish nor clearly bearish. The rise in Long Term Holder Realized Supply suggests continued expansion and reduced activity from older coins, which provides a supportive structural backdrop. At the same time, the recent drops in the profit ratio below 1.0 highlight short term pressure as some investors sell at a loss.
If the profit ratio quickly moves back above 1.0 while Realized Supply continues to grow, it would suggest that the current weakness is temporary. However, if the ratio remains below 1.0 for an extended period and losses continue alongside a decline in Realized Supply, it could signal a transition toward broader distribution of older coins and a more bearish market phase.
Separately, Bitcoin’s Combined Market Index has fallen into the 0.2 to 0.3 range, which has historically indicated undervaluation. With bitcoin trading slightly above seventy six thousand dollars, this level, last observed in early 2023, points to a potential reset following a correction. The index combines several metrics, including MVRV, NUPL, SOPR, and the Fear and Greed indicator, and suggests a phase of value accumulation with limited downside compared to long term upside potential.
Even so, the continued decline of the ninety day moving average indicates that selling pressure has not fully disappeared.#crypto#cryptonews https://coinsignals.net https://t.me/coinsignalpublic
