Concerns that quantum computing could severely damage Bitcoin may be exaggerated, according to on chain analyst James Check. His research argues that even in an extreme scenario, the outcome would resemble normal market behavior rather than a catastrophic collapse.
Reassessing the 6.9 Million BTC Risk
Fears around quantum attacks intensified after Google published research in March suggesting advanced quantum systems could potentially break cryptographic keys under certain conditions.
A commonly cited figure in this debate is 6.9 million BTC with exposed public keys. However, Check argues this number is misleading when treated as a single unified risk.
He divides the exposure into three categories. About 214,000 BTC is held in Taproot addresses, which are relatively new and likely controlled by active users who could move funds if needed. Another 4.996 million BTC sits in reused addresses, largely belonging to exchanges and custodial platforms.
Check notes that major institutions such as Binance and Coinbase are expected to implement protective measures, reducing the actual threat significantly.
This leaves around 1.716 million BTC in early Pay to Public Key addresses from the network’s earliest days. These coins, often associated with Satoshi Nakamoto, are widely believed to be lost and represent what Check considers the only meaningful target for a potential quantum attack.
Can the Market Absorb the Impact
To evaluate the worst case scenario, Check examined whether the market could handle the sudden sale of these coins. His conclusion is that it likely could, and more efficiently than many expect.
Data on revived supply shows that during strong market periods, Bitcoin regularly absorbs between 10,000 and 30,000 BTC per day as dormant coins return to circulation. Based on that pace, selling the entire 1.716 million BTC would be comparable to roughly two to three months of typical market activity.
While acknowledging that such a large sale would put downward pressure on prices, Check rejects the idea that it would be devastating to the network.
He also supports a proposal discussed in BIP 360 that would limit Pay to Public Key transactions to one per block. With about 38,000 such outputs, this approach would spread any potential movement over roughly nine months, giving the network time to adapt to post quantum upgrades.
Check ultimately raises a broader question about Bitcoin’s future. He suggests that if these early coins were redistributed into the market rather than remaining permanently inaccessible, the result might strengthen decentralization instead of causing the level of disruption many fear.#crypto#cryptonews https://coinsignals.net https://t.me/coinsignalpublic
