Dogecoin (DOGE) extended its recent losses on Wednesday, falling more than 5% as broader market weakness continued to weigh on cryptocurrencies. Despite the decline, some analysts believe the meme coin may be approaching a historically significant accumulation zone that has previously preceded some of its strongest rallies.
Long Term Indicator Points to Accumulation
Market analytics firm Alphractal highlighted Dogecoin’s position within its Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD) Channel model, an on chain metric designed to estimate an asset’s structural cost basis.
The model assigns weight to coin movements based on both their value and the length of time the coins remained inactive before being moved. Historically, periods when DOGE traded near the lower boundary of the CVDD channel have coincided with major accumulation phases, while moves toward the upper Alpha CVDD band have aligned with significant market tops.
According to Alphractal, Dogecoin is currently trading close to the lower CVDD range near $0.10 to $0.11. Similar conditions emerged in late 2014, mid 2020, and mid 2023, all of which were followed by substantial price advances. Following those accumulation periods, DOGE recorded gains estimated at 25,000%, 18,000%, and 500%, respectively.
Analysts See Consolidation Rather Than Weakness
Alphractal argues that the current lack of excitement surrounding Dogecoin should not be viewed as a negative signal. Historically, major market narratives tend to develop after accumulation phases rather than before them.
The firm also pointed to Dogecoin’s prolonged sideways trading over the past year as evidence of investors steadily rebuilding the asset’s cost basis. According to the analysis, traditional trading volume metrics may not fully capture this activity because the CVDD framework focuses on value weighted holding behavior rather than transaction counts.
As a result, Alphractal believes the market is witnessing a period of quiet accumulation rather than a sign of declining interest.
Potential Upside Target Near $0.85
Using its Alpha CVDD model, which the firm says has successfully identified previous major Dogecoin cycle peaks, Alphractal estimates an upper target zone around $0.85.
If achieved, that level would represent a gain of roughly 7.7 times from current prices.
The firm emphasized that Dogecoin remains the largest and most widely distributed meme coin in the market, with a longer historical record than any other asset in its category. Based on the current setup, Alphractal believes DOGE is displaying characteristics similar to those seen near previous cycle bottoms.
While many investors have begun to view Dogecoin as a fading meme asset, the firm’s analysis suggests the chart may instead be signaling a market preparing for a significant move.
Additional Bullish Signals Emerge
Alphractal also suggested that Dogecoin could potentially triple in value before artificial intelligence themed meme coins become the dominant narrative in the sector.
Adding to the bullish outlook, crypto analyst Ali Martinez recently reported that the TD Sequential indicator generated a buy signal on Dogecoin’s chart. Several other market commentators have echoed similar views, arguing that the asset may be approaching a breakout point after an extended period of consolidation.
Although market conditions remain volatile, proponents of the bullish case believe DOGE’s current positioning resembles previous accumulation phases that ultimately led to substantial price appreciation.#crypto#cryptonews https://coinsignals.net https://t.me/coinsignalpublic
