Recent data shows that stress among Bitcoin miners is rising steadily rather than collapsing suddenly as seen in earlier bear markets. Revenue pressure is increasing as prices weaken, but current conditions are still far from the extreme distress levels recorded in 2018 and 2022.
Bitcoin miners are currently under growing financial strain as falling prices and reduced earnings push several important indicators into what analyst Axel Adler Jr describes as a stress zone. Even so, the data suggests the industry has not yet reached the severe capitulation phases seen in previous cycles.
What the metrics are showing
According to Adler, the Pull Multiple 30 day moving average, which compares daily miner revenue to its one year average, dropped by 11 percent within ten days. It moved from 0.83 at the end of May to 0.74 by June 10.
The raw Puell Multiple is even lower at 0.58. When this value is below 1.0, it indicates that miner revenue is weaker than the yearly average. The lower it goes, the more difficult conditions become for mining operators.
For context, the 30 day moving average peaked at 1.33 in July 2025 when Bitcoin was trading above 120,000 dollars. The current level of 0.74 is similar to mid 2024, around the time of the halving period when Bitcoin traded between 55,000 and 68,000 dollars.
During the 2022 cycle low, the same indicator fell to 0.45, while in December 2018 it reached 0.33. Compared with those levels, the current reading is not yet at crisis territory.
However, the concern is the consistent downward trend over the past two weeks. If that pace continues, the indicator could approach 0.50 by late June, a level that previously coincided with widespread mining shutdowns in 2022.
Price to miner revenue multiple
The second indicator, the Price to Miner Revenue Multiple, measures how far Bitcoin’s market price trades above miners’ annual revenue per coin. A declining value suggests that the speculative premium over mining costs is shrinking.
This ratio currently stands at 80, down sharply from 160 in 2025. Despite the decline, Adler describes this range as a normalization phase rather than a deeply undervalued condition.
For comparison, the 2022 bottom reached 33, and in February 2019 it fell further to 15.
Miner capitulation metric
The third metric tracks miner capitulation by measuring Bitcoin’s price change since the most recent difficulty bottom. As of June 9, the drawdown stood at 21 percent, worsening from 8 percent on June 1 and near zero at the end of May.
Historically, deeper stress appears when this figure moves beyond a 30 percent decline. The most severe reading was in 2022 at 39 percent, which led to forced selling and large scale ASIC shutdowns.
How close is a true bottom
Despite current pressures, Adler notes that miners have not fully capitulated. He suggests that a true capitulation phase would likely require the Puell Multiple to fall below 0.50, the Price to Miner Revenue Multiple to compress toward the 30 to 40 range, and the drawdown from the difficulty bottom to exceed 30 percent.
At present, all three indicators are roughly at about half the severity of those historical extremes. However, conditions could worsen further if Bitcoin drops below 55,000 dollars without a corresponding difficulty adjustment.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading slightly under 63,000 dollars after briefly falling toward 59,000 dollars last Friday, its weakest level in nearly two years.#crypto#cryptonews https://coinsignals.net https://t.me/coinsignalpublic
