Bitcoin may be approaching the final phase of its current bear market, but on-chain data suggests a confirmed recovery has yet to materialize. Although the leading cryptocurrency has climbed from around $57,800 to nearly $63,000 over the past week, it continues to trade below two important valuation benchmarks: the True Market Mean at approximately $76,600 and the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis near $72,200.
According to Glassnode, this places Bitcoin firmly in what it describes as a “deep value” zone.
Bitcoin Still Searching for a Bottom
Bitcoin has now spent roughly five months below both valuation levels, making this one of the longest discount periods on record. Historically, similar stretches have coincided with the formation of major market bottoms as investors accumulated coins at prices below the average acquisition cost of both recent buyers and the broader active market.
Even so, Glassnode cautioned that another leg lower remains possible, with the Realized Price near $53,000 representing a potential downside target.
The report identified long-term holders as the primary source of current selling pressure. Since early February, the proportion of realized losses attributed to this group has climbed from 15% to 43%, making their capitulation the dominant force weighing on the market.
Many of these investors entered near the cycle highs and, after holding through months of declining prices, are now beginning to exit their positions.
Glassnode noted that this persistent selling has prevented Bitcoin from breaking above the upper end of its recent trading range. On a 30-day moving average, realized losses from long-term holders have reached roughly $280 million per day, the highest level since December 2022 and the second-largest capitulation event of the current bear market.
Unlike the previous wave of selling, however, this one has yet to show signs of easing. Glassnode believes a meaningful decline in realized losses will likely be necessary before a sustainable bullish trend can emerge.
Institutional Demand Remains Soft
Off-chain indicators also point to continued weakness in institutional participation.
The 30-day average of net flows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs has remained negative since mid-May. Although average daily outflows have slowed from around $193 million in early June to approximately $88.9 million, institutions are still reducing exposure overall.
Trading activity has also remained subdued, with daily ETF volumes ranging between $650 million and $950 million, nearly 80% below the $4.4 billion daily peak recorded in October 2025.
Glassnode said stronger trading volumes and a return to neutral or positive ETF inflows would provide stronger evidence that institutional demand is recovering.
Options Traders Continue to Hedge Against Downside
Derivatives markets present a more mixed outlook.
The options put-to-call ratio has dropped to 0.56, its lowest reading this year, while perpetual futures funding rates suggest traders have gradually rebuilt long positions after previously reducing risk.
Despite that improvement, options traders continue to position defensively.
Glassnode noted that downside protection remains expensive across all option maturities, indicating investors are still willing to pay a premium to hedge against further declines. A sharp increase in short-term hedging activity toward the end of June marked the most defensive positioning since February’s market selloff.
Bitcoin is also trading about 6% below the options market’s aggregated max pain level of approximately $66,000, the price where the largest number of outstanding options would expire worthless. Historically, Bitcoin’s spot price has often gravitated toward this level as options expiration approaches, making it another closely watched level for traders.#crypto#cryptonews https://coinsignals.net https://t.me/coinsignalpublic
