Bitcoin, stocks, and gold have followed sharply different paths this year as changing expectations around US monetary policy, geopolitical developments, and artificial intelligence reshaped investor sentiment, according to a new report from crypto trading firm BIT.
The report argues that markets are no longer being driven by a single macroeconomic narrative. Instead, capital has rotated rapidly between asset classes as investors react to shifting economic, political, and technological developments.
Fed Policy, Geopolitics, and AI Reshape Markets
BIT says the long standing relationship between equities, gold, and Bitcoin has weakened significantly as investors repeatedly reassessed their positions based on evolving macro conditions.
According to the report, the S&P 500 has gained 9 percent since the beginning of the year, while gold has declined 6 percent and Bitcoin has fallen 31 percent. Rather than moving in tandem, each asset class has responded differently as Federal Reserve expectations, geopolitical risks, and artificial intelligence have alternated as the market’s primary focus.
The report attributes the first major shift to changing expectations surrounding US monetary policy. After President Donald Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve, investors scaled back expectations for three interest rate cuts this year and instead began pricing in a more restrictive policy outlook.
Those expectations were reinforced during the June Federal Open Market Committee meeting, where policymakers maintained a hawkish stance, keeping pressure on assets that typically benefit from lower interest rates, including Bitcoin and gold.
Middle East Conflict Added More Pressure
The report also highlights renewed tensions in the Middle East as another key catalyst.
Following military strikes by the United States and Israel, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, sending oil prices higher while weighing on global equity markets.
Gold also weakened during the period. According to BIT, investors anticipated that central banks across the region would prioritize reconstruction spending over expanding their gold reserves.
Bitcoin also came under pressure, falling below the $60,000 level and losing the resilience it had previously demonstrated during periods of geopolitical uncertainty.
AI Became the Market’s Dominant Theme
As geopolitical concerns eased, investor attention shifted almost entirely toward artificial intelligence.
BIT points to reports that Nvidia acquired a $2 billion stake in Marvell Technology, alongside Anthropic’s annualized revenue surpassing $30 billion, exceeding the roughly $20 billion previously reported by OpenAI.
Those developments fueled renewed enthusiasm for AI related investments, driving technology stocks higher while attracting capital away from alternative assets such as Bitcoin and gold.
BIT Expects the Divergence to Narrow
Despite the strong AI driven rally, BIT believes investor enthusiasm began fading in June as companies increasingly recognized the high costs associated with AI services, while lower cost open source models from China intensified competitive pressure.
The report also notes that spot Bitcoin ETFs became significant net sellers during that period, reducing their holdings by roughly $9 billion as Bitcoin declined from around $82,000 to nearly $63,000.
Looking ahead, BIT believes gold has entered technically oversold territory, while Bitcoin may be approaching a market cycle bottom between $50,000 and $55,000.
However, the firm does not expect the current divergence between stocks, gold, and Bitcoin to persist indefinitely. If the Federal Reserve adopts a less restrictive stance following its September policy meeting, inflation continues to ease, and demand for AI investments strengthens again, BIT believes all three asset classes could resume rising together.#crypto#cryptonews https://coinsignals.net https://t.me/coinsignalpublic
