Despite XRP’s recent rebound, one market analyst believes the recovery may be misleading and argues that the cryptocurrency remains locked in a broader bearish trend, with the possibility of falling below $1 still firmly on the table.
The outlook contrasts with growing optimism among bullish traders who expect a breakout. According to the analyst, the coming weeks will be critical in determining whether XRP can establish a stronger foundation or continue its longer term decline.
In a series of posts on X, chart analyst ChartNerd urged traders to focus on XRP’s broader technical structure rather than being swayed by short term price gains. He emphasized that the bearish trend remains intact after the 20 week and 50 week exponential moving averages formed a death cross in January 2026, a signal often associated with prolonged downside momentum.
ChartNerd also pointed to XRP’s failed rally in May, when the token climbed toward the 20 week EMA before losing momentum and dropping from roughly $1.35 to around $1.00. According to him, this reinforced the moving average as a major resistance level.
The analyst believes that even if XRP climbs to $1.29 or extends toward $1.60, those levels should still be viewed as significant resistance unless the price breaks above them with conviction. He added that a move to $1.60 by late July or early August would strengthen the argument that the recent dip to around $1.00 marked a local bottom.
On the other hand, failure to reach or overcome the 20 week EMA near $1.29 could accelerate another decline, increasing the chances of XRP slipping below the $1 mark sooner than many expect.
ChartNerd also rejected claims circulating on social media that XRP has already broken out of the downtrend that began in July 2025. Responding to bullish predictions from fellow analyst Bird, he argued that XRP remains trapped inside a wedge formation and continues to trade below its descending resistance line.
He also criticized traders celebrating the latest price increase, suggesting that a modest recovery does not automatically signal the beginning of a major bull run. According to ChartNerd, many of the same voices calling for a breakout today made similar predictions when XRP was trading near $2.40 in January, before the token eventually declined to around $1.00.
At the time of writing, XRP was trading near $1.13 after gaining almost 4% over the previous 24 hours. The token is up nearly 6% over the past week but remains about 2% lower than it was a month ago. Recent trading has remained confined between $1.08 and $1.14, indicating that the market has yet to make a decisive move in either direction.
For ChartNerd, the technical picture remains straightforward. Until XRP convincingly breaks through the resistance levels that have capped price action for months, any rally should be viewed with caution rather than as confirmation that the downtrend has ended.
Not everyone shares that view. Some analysts remain firmly bullish, including EGRAG CRYPTO, who recently suggested XRP could eventually reach a $1 trillion market capitalization if historical market patterns repeat. However, achieving such a milestone would require significantly stronger market conditions and much greater investor demand than is currently evident.#crypto#cryptonews https://coinsignals.net https://t.me/coinsignalpublic
